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2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

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Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

RCP's poll of polls still has Romney with a big lead in NH:

.39 Romney
.20 Paul
.11 Huntsman
.11 Santorum

Huntsman has been great over the last week, taking it to Romney where nobody else really seems to be. He will disappear after NH -- he should probably suspend immediately -- but this has been a good initial run setting up a more substantial effort in 2016.

Perry isn't even campaigning in NH, he's spending all his time in SC, but he isn't polling any better. I'm surprised he isn't trying to undermine Santorum, since they are competing for the same voters. Meanwhile, Paul has been hitting Santorum on being big government in particular and slimy in general, so I guess his people are still hoping he can unify all the Not-Mitts. Good luck with that since he alienates the warhead types. The Comment trails on nomination stories are full of libertarian-on-neocon violence.

RCP's poll of polls has Santorum ahead of Gingrich now in SC:

.31 Romney
.21 Santorum
.20 Gingrich
.11 Paul

The Gingrich numbers have been dropping hard (he was in the 40's a month ago). Rasmussen just released a poll with Santorum only 3 points behind Romney in SC.

So what we probably wind up with is Romney winning the first three states (IA, NH, SC), Paul and Santorum doing well (20's) in two and not so well (low teens) in one, and Perry, Gingrich and Huntsman having no hope and dropping after SC.

That looks a whole lot like a Romney-Santorum ticket to me, with some half-hearted attempt at libertarian rhetoric at the convention to appeal to the Paulistas. Essentially: McCain-Palin, Part Deux.

Paul won't run a third party campaign as a Libertarian, but boy that would sure be the time to do it, particularly if the economy improves to the point where Obama is a sure thing anyway.
 
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Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

The sad part is, this year has really shown me that the presidential campaigning doesn't start the year before the elections, it starts about 4-8 years before the elections. Or more. You need to run and lose just to get your name in the hat for the next go around, which isn't even guaranteed to happen every four years. You almost need to plan out the next sixteen years of your life before you even think about running.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Romney's your next President. The irony of the party of anti-flip-flop is going to nominate and get elected the Flip-Floppiest of them all.

It shows me how silly everything really is.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

I'm disappointed with Ron Paul's side stepping the energy subsidy question on NBC, I'm not sure what monetary policy, devaluation, gold standard has to do with energy subsidy. not even sure we could go back to the gold standard (of 1960's) without apocalyptic economic upheaval. And when he goes on about fiat currency he does seem a bit zealot, it's hard to explain and understand and it becomes a boring lecture.

Actually disappointed in the line of questions so far and mostly the follow up. It should be what is your energy policy? what about energy subsidy (for oil, ethanol, renewable, people)? how is your energy policy/views different from the current administration?

Romney - looks to be cruising to win the nomination.

Santorum - looks hateful with gay bashing. He needs to find a better explanation/apology/ to comments he made in the past (man on child, man on dog) ... dicing the words is fine, but he needs to throw in a small apology or something to show he has compassion for others and not just ideology. Maybe make some broad speeches to differentiate himself from others. If he has oratory skills.

Paul - It's one thing to stick to your guns, but he needs to be more flexible and get off lecturing us. especially on fiat currency .... my eyes are drooping just typing that.

Gingrich - well he's almost slick as Willie with words but without the personal charm, charisma he can't pull it off... he needs to find a better defense/explanation when attacked on Freddie, chicken hawk etc... and not look so angry and rattled when doing so.

Huntsman - looked pretty good, but he needs to polish his speech down more toward 3rd grade level. he has the right idea but execution has been very weak. And he really needs to project a vision that's different from the other candidates (Romney).
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

"Fiat currency" is a canard. Anything that isn't barter is a fiat currency, including gold and silver. And the gold standard is loony: why should a nation's monetary policy be determined by the rate at which multinational corporations can extract and refine a somewhat rare mineral with little utilitarian value?
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Craig P. said:
"Fiat currency" is a canard. Anything that isn't barter is a fiat currency, including gold and silver. And the gold standard is loony: why should a nation's monetary policy be determined by the rate at which multinational corporations can extract and refine a somewhat rare mineral with little utilitarian value?
Click to expand...
Because humans like shiny things.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Screw the gold standard. I think we should go to the francium standard.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Tundra said:
Santorum - looks hateful with gay bashing. He needs to find a better explanation/apology/ to comments he made in the past (man on child, man on dog) ... dicing the words is fine, but he needs to throw in a small apology or something to show he has compassion for others and not just ideology.
Click to expand...

Think of the audience he is appealing to, particular as the primaries move south.

He does have the get out of jail free "hate the sin, love the sinner" card if he ever needs it. I assume we'll hear a lot of that in 2016, when gay bashing is making its last stand. By 2020 the phobes will have literally died off, and it will be considered as lunatic as if a current candidate started ranting about miscegenation.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

I'm amazed at the strategy of these campaigns. Aside from Ron Paul's outfit, which appeals to a unique subset of voters, everybody else running a campaign in this GOP primary should never get a job in politics again. It really took until the eve of the NH primary for somebody to figure out "hey Bubba, maybe we a ought ina do sumtin about dis Romney fella". They needed to take the Royal Rumble circa 1980's approach to this primary. Romney is the Andre the Giant character. Slow and unspectacular, but if you leave him alone all match eventually he'll prevail one on one. They needed to all get together, pick him up and throw him out of the ring. Then they could battle each other for the prize. Instead they've exhausted themselves battling each other to the death, and now they're about to get effortlessly flung out of the ring.

Really, aside from Paul who has a clear mission (which is to get his crackpot ideas a prime time airing at the convention with the second highest delegate and to attract disgruntled conservatives antsy over the moderate Romney as the nominee) the rest of these people have been terrible. Even Romney's campaign has been forced to tack too far to the right to fend off a bunch of mental midgets - positions that will come back to haunt him in the general election.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Rover said:
They needed to take the Royal Rumble circa 1980's approach to this primary. Romney is the Andre the Giant character. Slow and unspectacular, but if you leave him alone all match eventually he'll prevail one on one. They needed to all get together, pick him up and throw him out of the ring. Then they could battle each other for the prize. Instead they've exhausted themselves battling each other to the death, and now they're about to get effortlessly flung out of the ring.
Click to expand...
This gets my vote for most apt and colorful political analogy of this election. Is it yours or did you borrow it, because it's exactly right. :)
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

And Romney will still win the nomination and the election. Ironic since the Democrats failed to do it with their Mitt Romney (John Kerry) when he went against their Obama (GW Bush). The parallels are stunning but I have no doubt the end result will be different.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Rover did nail that analogy...the GOP candidates ran this whole campaign like they were actually...Democrats :eek: This whole thing has been an epic failure.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

ScoobyDoo said:
And Romney will still win the nomination and the election. Ironic since the Democrats failed to do it with their Mitt Romney (John Kerry) when he went against their Obama (GW Bush). The parallels are stunning but I have no doubt the end result will be different.
Click to expand...

You also said Bachmann would be our next President :p

Romney will not win the election...
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Romney is the kind of guy who usually comes in second in nomination battles.

It's weird that this is considered "his turn." He hasn't done squat for the GOP. He just parachuted in from Wall Street at the right time. It's as if the Dems put up Tim Geitner to run for president.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Handyman said:
You also said Bachmann would be our next President :p

Romney will not win the election...
Click to expand...

LOL. You don't know when I'm kidding and when I'm serious, yet?

Romney will win it. It will be by 5-7 points.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

ScoobyDoo said:
LOL. You don't know when I'm kidding and when I'm serious, yet?

Romney will win it. It will be by 5-7 points.
Click to expand...

Romney - Obama = 5 x (U3 - 9.0)

If you have a crystal ball to tell you what U3 is going to be on Election Day, you should be making money in the stock market rather than posting here. ;)
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

ScoobyDoo said:
LOL. You don't know when I'm kidding and when I'm serious, yet?

Romney will win it. It will be by 5-7 points.
Click to expand...

Oh I know, I am just sick of having to explain it to others so I am making sure the point is made ;)

I would actually bet Geitner has a better shot of winning than Romney does. It took Mitt all of 12 seconds to contradict himself in the last debate. I wish I was making that up but the Daily Show nailed him. The only way he wins is if he flips the hardcore GOP to his side and the Dems stay home. He may get one of those to happen but not both.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Kep & Handy thanks for the appreciation. That is my invention and mine only, but as you will soon discover pundits read the USCHO political threads and then often steal my ideas as their own. I expect this analogy to show up on somebody's blog, most likely a 20 something year old who has no idea who Andre The Giant is, in a few days time.
 
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