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2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

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Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Kepler said:
I was taking it for granted that the states are in a race to be early. I was looking for some countervailing force, but I don't see one, unless something convinces the national party that a nominee wrapping up too early makes him an easy target to wear down by the general election.)
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I'm starting to think the biggest problem with the country is that the Constitution didn't include some sort of impartial organization (with the inclusion that any bribery involved means instant death for the briber and bribee) put in charge of all election related details, from setting up congressional districts, to primary election times, to spending rules, etc.

To the time machine!
 
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Huskyfan, the answer your question I could vote for Romney under some circumstances, but not those that we'll be facing in 2012. Simply put, with him as Prez the Congress, particularly Cantor in the House (clearly The Boner isn't running the show there) and McConnell in the Senate will be running the country. That will be an epic disaster akin to when Dick Cheney and Tom DeLay were calling the shots the last time a Republican was President.

Moving on, I don't see how Christie successfully competes at this point. All he'd be doing is fighting for the same voters as Romney - a guy who has more money and has had boots on the ground in the early primary states for the last 5 years. He'd have to get versed on national issues in a hurry too something that's troubled Perry thus far. Christie 2012 = Guiliani 2008.

Having said that, I agree with Kep that its still Perry's to lose. Look at how the primaries are set up. Bachmann probably wins the Iowa caucuses making them inconsequential. Then give Romney NH as expected and for his sake Nevada. South Carolina and Florida are Perry country, and since Florida is bigger than NH, NV, IA and SC combined, say Hi to your new frontrunner in the delegate count. Then the Southern state heavy Super Tuesday primary happens.

The biggest thing to look for is if somebody fails to hold serve. By that I mean a Romney victory down South or a Perry victory in Nevada. I'm also keeping an eye on fundraising. This is Bachmann's Achilies heel and may help decide things if the primary drags on as it has the potential to do ala the Obama/Clinton contest in 08.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Kepler said:
Didn't the RNC put in a rule in 2008 that anybody who moved up before some date (March 1?) forfeited 50% of its delegates?

I guess the strong candidates are helped by moving dates up since it maximizes the advantage of their name recognition. Also, if they can wrap up the nomination earlier they can build their war-chest earlier, which should help both them and the national party. There's really no force pushing the other direction right now.
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Yep!

But, and this may be a pipe dream, what if NOBODY has 50% going into the convention?? Then we get politics as most of us have never seen in our lifetimes.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Rover said:
I'm also keeping an eye on fundraising. This is Bachmann's Achilies heel and may help decide things if the primary drags on as it has the potential to do ala the Obama/Clinton contest in 08.
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On fundraising, my intuition is time is on Romney's side. Perry's best chance is taking a large early lead, be anointed the likely nominee, and then the traditional Republican money sources will migrate to him: self-fulfilling prophesy. The longer Romney stays in it, the more the frontrunner money stays out, giving the nomination to Wall Street, er, Mitt.

This is a VERY different sort of GOP nomination. Usually their primaries pit a marriage of convenience of the rich (economic policies) and the poor (social issues) against a moderate representing the middle class. This time it's just a straight line graph, starting from the richest going for Romney and continuing down to the poorest going for Perry. To put it another way, this is the first time the Republican nominee might actually believe the aggressive Christianist rhetoric the (educated, wealthy, gay-friendly, indistinguishable from liberals) GOP Elite has faked for decades as a cover for their actual economic agenda.

They probably regret giving that scorpion a ride... :D

(Probably not. They've got enough socked away offshore by now to ride it out.)
 
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Kepler said:
This time it's just a straight line graph, starting from the richest going for Romney and continuing down to the poorest going for Perry. To put it another way, this is the first time the Republican nominee might actually believe the aggressive Christianist rhetoric the (educated, wealthy, gay-friendly, indistinguishable from liberals) GOP Elite has faked for decades as a cover for their actual economic agenda.
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I think Perry's more likely to be Bush II... wait, should that be Bush III? Dubya-II?... than he is to be a Bachman or Palin-type, as far as how he governs. He governs like GWB—long on cronyism and pro-business (science be d@mned if it gets in the way of good business), not afraid of cozying up to the far right wing but not captive to them either—but rhetoricizes like Bachman and Palin.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Craig P. said:
I think Perry's more likely to be Bush II... wait, should that be Bush III? Dubya-II?... than he is to be a Bachman or Palin-type, as far as how he governs. He governs like GWB—long on cronyism and pro-business (science be d@mned if it gets in the way of good business), not afraid of cozying up to the far right wing but not captive to them either—but rhetoricizes like Bachman and Palin.
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It's gotten to the point where I hope so. :(

I have no doubt a Perry administration would be the most entertainingly crooked we've had since... well, since Reagan actually, though I was thinking of Harding (same thing). But Perry seems to actually believe the Jesus Taliban stuff, too, which is scary.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Kepler said:
But Perry seems to actually believe the Jesus Taliban stuff, too, which is scary.
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I truly don't know what to think on this point. I've seen accounts from the right saying that he's a Methodist, not an evangelical, and his personal religious views are moderate. And there's the HPV vaccination dust-up, where he basically ran afoul of the entire theocrat establishment near as I can tell. But on the other hand, he does stuff like appoint an evangelical to the state school board (the one that has taken a run at being a national laughingstock) who comments openly about having six votes for their agenda and only needing to sway two.

Generally, given the rest of his ouvre, I'm leaning towards thinking of it as a marriage of convenience for Perry. He's not a true-believer, but he's OK enough with it to be happy to use them to his political advantage—in fact, he seems to be quite the chameleon politically. That's still only marginally less worrisome than if he were a true believer, though. He'd still have reasons to use them to his political advantage as President.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Kepler said:
It's gotten to the point where I hope so. :(

I have no doubt a Perry administration would be the most entertainingly crooked we've had since... well, since Reagan actually, though I was thinking of Harding (same thing). But Perry seems to actually believe the Jesus Taliban stuff, too, which is scary.
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Mr. President: Walter Jenkins on one and Justice Fortas on two.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Kepler said:
Didn't the RNC put in a rule in 2008 that anybody who moved up before some date (March 1?) forfeited 50% of its delegates?
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Yeah, and people gave the DNC shiat for enforcing a similar provision in 2008, too, from what I remember heading into the whole super delegates swaying the convention.

They also exempted 4 states from that: Iowa, NH, SC, and Nevada. So all four of those can move up as early as needed to maintain their traditional pecking order.
 
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Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

unofan said:
Yeah, and people gave the DNC shiat for enforcing a similar provision in 2008, too, from what I remember heading into the whole super delegates swaying the convention.

They also exempted 4 states from that: Iowa, NH, SC, and Nevada. So all four of those can move up as early as needed to maintain their traditional pecking order.
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Who would believe the greatest democracy in history would have a nominating process designed by Borat?
 
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Chris Christie is holding a press conference at 1PM to announce whether he's running for president or not. Seeing as how he's already said no about 20 times this will either be the shortest presser in history or he's confident that people he called crazy will nominate him.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Priceless said:
Chris Christie is holding a press conference at 1PM to announce whether he's running for president or not. Seeing as how he's already said no about 20 times this will either be the shortest presser in history or he's confident that people he called crazy will nominate him.
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Intrade odds are dropping like a rock on Christie running. Evidently, this is not typically how campaigns are announced.

Regardless of what he says, he'll be more definitive than Palin who continues to consider her options.
 
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Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Priceless said:
Chris Christie is holding a press conference at 1PM to announce whether he's running for president or not. Seeing as how he's already said no about 20 times this will either be the shortest presser in history or he's confident that people he called crazy will nominate him.
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I've also read that nobody in the key primary states has heard from him trying to organize and hire staff at this point.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Reports are coming out that Christie is calling major campaign donors to let them know he is not running.

So, um, why does he need a press conference?
 
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Priceless said:
Reports are coming out that Christie is calling major campaign donors to let them know he is not running.

So, um, why does he need a press conference?
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POTUS said "the Beltway consensus is he will run." Late night hosts everywhere are praying as we speak. We'll know in 2 hours.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Drudge is reporting he will not run. This is almost as big as LeBron. But not as important to America, of course.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Is Chris Christie taking his talents to Tampa? Jim Grey is en route to New Jersey to tell us.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

The Big Man says no. The first question out the gate is "how do we know we won't be right back here in 3 months?" Give that reporter a cigar.
 
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