New Hampshire losing means the Mildcats can no longer catch Maine. The Black Bears have clinched a first round bye. A look at the relevant standings: [TABLE="border: 0, cellspacing: 0"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 100"]Team[/TD]
[TD="width: 86"]Points[/TD]
[TD="width: 86"]Max[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Maine[/TD]
[TD]38[/TD]
[TD]44[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mass[/TD]
[TD]36[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Providence[/TD]
[TD]36[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
If Maine gets to 42, 43 or 44 points the Black Bears clinch the #3 seed.
If Maine gets to 41 points, as long as PC does NOT get to 42, Maine gets the #3 seed. If the Friars win twice in regulation, Maine finishes #4 and will host UMass.
Now things get tricky. If Maine and UMass finish alone at 40 points, Maine wins the tiebreaker (5-4 H2H points). If PC finishes with 41 or 42 points, they finish #3 and Maine #4. If PC finishes with <40 Maine finishes #3. However, if Maine, PC and UMass all finish with 40 points, the tiebreaker suddenly swings to UMass (10-8-3 H2H points {2-1.6-.75 ppg}). Then it depends on how both teams get to 40 points. Tiebreaker would be H2H points (3-3) then number of wins. If a game is still tied after OT it goes down as a tie and HEA awards the shootout winner an extra point, but that is still not a win. Maine leads PC 12-11 so a shootout win coupled with 2 OTW for PC flips the tiebreaker and drops Maine to #5. Two Maine OTL and a ROW + OTL for the Friars gets Maine to 4th. If PC and Maine end up tied in wins, the final tiebreaker is points per game vs 1st place team, which Maine wins 2-1.67
If Maine finishes with 39, the best they can do is 4th if PC gets 39 or below. If the Friars end up with 40 or more, then Maine finishes #5. I believe Maine wins every conceivable tiebreaker if both teams end up with 39, but I could be missing something.
If Maine loses both in regulation and ends on 38 then the Bears need PC to finish with <39 to finish 4th. 39 or better by the Friars drops Maine to #5. Again, I think Maine wins all possible tiebreakers at 38. That SOW against BC could be huge.
But just win twice and all this becomes irrelevant.
On the national scene, looking at Maine in a vacuum:
2 wins = 7th in Pairwise
1 win = 9th in Pairwise
0 wins = 10th in Pairwise
This does NOT account for any other teams around them, just the Black Bears. The wrong combination of (improbable) results could see Maine drop to 13th.