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World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

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Re: World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

Wait... what?

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Re: World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

Brilliant!

Plus, half those guys look like Billy Idol.
 
Re: World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

The expansion fees might have helped cover the losses suffered in the early years, but there is absolutely no evidence that MLS is using expansion fees to cover current operating expenses.

The salary budget is only 2.5 million per team. MLS alone gets 15 million a year from Adidas - that sponsorship covers the full salaries of 6 teams.

If the league were expanding for the sake of expanding, you wouldn't see new teams ponying up for brand new stadiums (Toronto, Philly, Portland's renovation, SLC, etc).

The first bolded item is what is definately working in MLS's favor right now.

The second item isn't necessarily anything new. Of the expansion NHL franchises that started since 1990, only Florida, Ottawa and Tampa didn't have new arenas when they started, and none of them had to wait more than four years to get one. Having strong capital and a lot of initial investment doesn't hurt your chances of eventually drawing in revenue, but it doesn't garuantee you anything. Just look at the state the NHL had gone to right before the lockout.

It's still a disconcerting trend to continue expanding before you've had a chance to sit back, let the dust settle and see how the current crop of new teams fares. Right now, MLS is doing the equivalent of getting pregnant a week after giving birth.
 
Re: World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

I can't speak to my own personal experience since I don't remember watching with a critical eye back then, but there are more than a few people who claim the quality of play in MLS has dropped noticeably since the first few seasons back in the 90s. If the talent pool is so broad, should that have happened? Also, the MLS roster rules only give 8 slots for international players on each roster. Those spots can be traded, but there still has to be a sizable number of Americans at each club. The talent pool there is not as broad, and while academies are beginning to produce players, I doubt they'll ever get to a point of filling all the slots.

From the early 90s? Yes, quality has declined. They were also losing money hand over fist then, too. But that wasn't really a league, so much as it was a couple of all star type teams. Those lessons have been learned, the league stabilized, and now it's growing again.

Those early days had DP-like players without the official DP rule. That's how they got big names to come to the league in the first place.

And I think you're dead wrong on the academies. DC United has 2 players signed from the academy directly, two more that they've drafted after coming back from college, and two more on top of that on the verge of signing.

Furthermore, the domestic player rule isn't for American citizens, but American residents. If a foreign player demonstrates the commitment to the league and gets a green card, they count as a domestic player. Jaime Moreno for DC, as an example, is a domestic player for the league's purposes, despite being a Bolivian for FIFA purposes.

I'm not arguing your point about selling the NHL down south v. selling soccer.

However, you said "You can sell soccer pretty much anywhere." That is clearly not the case. Look at Dallas. Look at Colorado to some extent. Heck, you could even argue that Columbus should be drawing better than they are.
I guess my point is, you better have a darn good understanding of who your target fans are and how to reach them if you want to sell soccer in some areas.

You can sell soccer anywhere. Dallas fails because they don't sell it at all. Literally. They do zero marketing. And yet, they're on the verge of profitability.

Nor was I asserting that all markets were equal - they clearly are not.
 
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Re: World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

The first bolded item is what is definately working in MLS's favor right now.

The second item isn't necessarily anything new. Of the expansion NHL franchises that started since 1990, only Florida, Ottawa and Tampa didn't have new arenas when they started, and none of them had to wait more than four years to get one. Having strong capital and a lot of initial investment doesn't hurt your chances of eventually drawing in revenue, but it doesn't garuantee you anything. Just look at the state the NHL had gone to right before the lockout.

It's still a disconcerting trend to continue expanding before you've had a chance to sit back, let the dust settle and see how the current crop of new teams fares. Right now, MLS is doing the equivalent of getting pregnant a week after giving birth.

The NHL comparison isn't valid because the NHL's problem wasn't generating revenue, it was out of control spending. MLS already has that locked down - the salary budget is set (and paid for) by the league. Designated Players come out of the individual team coffers.

And there's a big difference between a Soccer Stadium and an arena, not just for revenue control. This is about right-sizing and building atmosphere. You can make an NFL venue work if you draw Seattle-sized crowds, but Crew Stadium is a huge improvement over Ohio Stadium in atmosphere, not to mention things like playing surface.

As far as the speed of expansion goes, that will all depend on the cases each potential owner puts forth.
 
Re: World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

DC United has 2 players signed from the academy directly, two more that they've drafted after coming back from college, and two more on top of that on the verge of signing.

And look where that's gotten them! ;) I'm not saying the academies won't produce players, the question is whether they will produce quality ones. Andy Najar is fantastic, I'm just skeptical that there will be many more of him. Heck, even well established academies produce a few stinkers now and then. If the academy system is being counted on to produce quality American players, I think it has a ways to go.



Nor was I asserting that all markets were equal - they clearly are not.

I never you said were. Just like I never said selling soccer in Toronto was the same as selling hockey down south.
 
Re: World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

Not to be too curt, but yes, there is. MLS won't have trouble filling rosters. One of the big concerns with MLB expansion was that the talent level went down, particularly for pitching. Well, that may be the case when you're the top baseball league in the world. MLS isn't the top soccer league in the world, there is both a much broader talent pool to draw from and much deeper one - expansion means more players, but asserting that they will only be worse players is false.

That said, MLS doesn't get enough credit for the quality that's already here. Even so, the league isn't the most talented, nobody disputes that - so what is there to degrade?

MLB's talent pool (and the NHL's) had nowhere to go but down. That's not the case here.
This is a good point. If you're the strongest league in your sport (MLB, NHL, NFL), expansion necessarily means dilution of the talent pool. If you're at the level of MLS, there are tons of comparable players in Brazil and Argentina and Mexico and all around Europe that could fill out the rosters.
 
Re: World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

This is a good point. If you're the strongest league in your sport (MLB, NHL, NFL), expansion necessarily means dilution of the talent pool. If you're at the level of MLS, there are tons of comparable players in Brazil and Argentina and Mexico and all around Europe that could fill out the rosters.


Can't those players fill out the rosters now though? And if so, why aren't they?
 
Re: World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

Can't those players fill out the rosters now though? And if so, why aren't they?

They do. Expansion just means more spots for them.

Keep in mind that MLS has lots of leverage, particularly with Latin American players, in that the league offers a chance to live and work in the US. If you're marginal talent for Europe, why not live and move your family to the US? There are lots of examples of this in MLS.
 
Re: World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

They do. Expansion just means more spots for them.

Keep in mind that MLS has lots of leverage, particularly with Latin American players, in that the league offers a chance to live and work in the US. If you're marginal talent for Europe, why not live and move your family to the US? There are lots of examples of this in MLS.

Eh, I think the same thing holds true, even at the MLS level.

If you're the 25th best league in the world, and you expand, odds are the new players filling out rosters were probably in the 26th or 27th best leagues in the world. Meaning the talent level has been diluted downward.

Now, odds are the difference between the top tier and the next level down is far greater than the 25th and 27th tiers, so the dilution won't be as noticeable if at all, but it should still be there to some extent.

Edit: I have no idea where MLS ranks, whether it's 10th or 50th or whatever. I used 25th purely as an example.
 
Re: World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

I would be interested in hearing more detail from Garber about time frame and intermediate goals. Before he said he wants 20-24 teams, he said he wants MLS to be one of the top soccer leagues in the world. That isn't happening with the current cost containment. MLS would have to join soccer's free market to become a top league and that is probably decades away from happening. Maybe 20-24 teams is decades away as well.

I have no problems with MLS cost containment, but the product on the field isn't going to improve as long as it is in place. Last night MLS's best team lost to a USL team at home and another MLS team struggled at home against a Honduran side. MLS is a long, long way from being one of the top soccer leagues in the world. 20-24 teams may be a long, long way off as well.
 
Re: World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

Celtic goes down 3-0 today to Braga in CL qualifiers. Time to take away one of the SPL Champions League spots?
 
Re: World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

. Time to take away one of the SPL Champions League spots?

Well, in all fairness, Celtic got a tough draw, it was the road tie and Celtic did win at this stage last year. Taking away their second bid might be a bit harsh. Plus, I can't think of another country that deserves it.
 
Re: World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

Well, in all fairness, Celtic got a tough draw, it was the road tie and Celtic did win at this stage last year. Taking away their second bid might be a bit harsh. Plus, I can't think of another country that deserves it.

Give another to England. Ducks
 
Re: World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

Time to take away one of the SPL Champions League spots?
Actually, they're pretty close to that point.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uefa_coefficients#Current_ranking

Scotland is ranked 15th in the UEFA coefficients. As of the current ranking system, starting with #16, you only get one Champion's League spot.

Granted, Scotland is closer to being ranked 12th than they are to being dropped to 16th, but the point still stands: they're the lowest ranked league with multiple Champion's League spots.

Edit: In fact, there is only one spot for Scotland next year, as their ranking was 16th at some point earlier this year (evidently, the 11-12 CL allocation is based on the 2010 coefficients, which must have been calculated earlier this year before Scotland somehow lept back up to #15... just as the 2011 coefficients must determine the 12-13 CL allocation)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011–12_UEFA_Champions_League#Qualifying_rounds
 
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Re: World Cup Soccer XVII: There can only be ONE!!!11!!!

The vision for MLS, compiled in this post on Big Soccer:
http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1502599

Over the past two years, I've wondered why MLS hasn't more forcefully stated it's vision -- essentially, what it wants to be when it grows up.

Last Fall, Don Garber noted in an interview with Grant Wahl that having effectively assured its survival, MLS now had the luxury of really planing its future, and the owners were having discussions on spending and how to tweak the current model.
There's certainly much more debate as to what our future will look like as it relates to spending. There are a number of camps that exist within any league structure, and my role is to ensure that we can reach consensus on a plan going forward that makes sense for everybody. There are some within the league that believe spending isn't the solution to growing popularity, that the path to popularity and ultimately profitability is about continuing what has been the proper plan for the last number of years. This plan has worked, there is no doubt about it. MLS is still standing and growing and has hopefully a bright future ahead. So the question is, when do you move from this plan into thinking that it's time perhaps to go and invest more in a wide variety of things?


http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/grant_wahl/11/19/garber.qa/2.html#ixzz0v1U6KLSU


Fast forward to Apirl, when Jonathan Kraft did with the Boston Globe about the new DP rule (which Garber actually mentioned in another interview), but it was striking in that young Kraft provided one of the more succinct visions of what he hoped MLS would become:
And I think the future for MLS — and a big part of it is our structure and how we’re set up — is very strong. And I think 15 years from now it’s not unreasonable to assume we’ll be — will we be the Premiership, or the Bundesliga, or Serie A? Maybe not. But I think there’s a reasonable chance we’ll be just right below that.

Link:

http://www.boston.com/sports/soccer/articles/2010/04/02/revolution_will_be_choosy_about_dps/?page=2

At the time, it sounded like Kraft might be puffing. Now, in another interview with the commissioner, Grant Wahl goes back to the topic. Here's what Garber said on the record:

Our goal is to be one of the top soccer leagues in the world. It's always been our goal, but we're becoming more public in stating our long-term vision. Had we talked about what we wanted to be when the league was founded, particularly when we had the challenges that we did, it would have raised some skepticism. But now that the league is growing, earning more respect and having more players coming into the league from the domestic and international ranks, we have a goal in sight.

Link:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/grant_wahl/07/28/allstar.garber/1.html#ixzz0v1VZu1wD

Wahl puts more meat on the bone later, however, when he notes in his column:

The word is that MLS wants to be the best league in CONCACAF in the next five years. That's a tall order, considering how rich the Mexican league is (richer even than the Argentine and Brazilian leagues), but the only way to reach that goal is to start winning the CONCACAF Champions League.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/grant_wahl/07/28/allstar.garber/2.html#ixzz0v1VyFa1K


Wahl's not quoting anyone on the record, but it's potentially still a bombshell. We're not talking about a 15 or 20 year plan here, where talking five years -- around the end of the current CBA. And Wahl's right, it's a huge stretch goal, but clearly they are thinking big, the the first step on the path to becoming one of the best leagues in the world is to become CONCACAF's best league.

Is that even remotely possible within the current structure?

What do you think?
 
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