Wisconsin Badgers 2020-2021

[robertearle]

Doesn't Minnesota have to win the WCHA tournament to get into the national tournament? I personally don't see them doing that.

I don't think so. Certainly it is not 'necessary'.

Keeping in mind that because there has been so little inter-conference play, the rating systems 'break down' and the usual RPI and Pairwise (and KRACH) become less useful, nevertheless there are eight slots and four conferences. So go conference by conference, and see where you get:

If Penn State wins the CHA tournament and auto-bid, does CHA have a second team that deserves a slot? #13, #14 and #15 in the RPI? (More on RPI in a minute)

ECAC has only four teams playing, do they deserve a second team? Their RPIs say yes, but...

Hockey East's #2 team (for the moment) is already done, out of their tournament, is #8 in the RPI, and might get dropped to #9 this weekend (possibly by Duluth). Will they have a second team 'worthy' of a slot when their tournament has ended?

So, who gets the eight slots? Which conference(s) get a second team such that Minnesota or Duluth doesn't get in?

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About RPI (and not the 'adjusted numbers): As I said, ECAC has only four teams playing, but I realized/noticed earlier today that all four have RPIs above 0.5. Now, it's pretty straight forward math that when a 'subgroup' of teams play only one another, the individual teams RPIs must tend towards 0.5. Indeed, with WCHA teams having played no non-conference games at all, as a whole their RPIs must average out to 0.5 per team; the above 0.5 numbers that Wisconsin, Ohio State, Minnesota and Duluth show are entirely equaled out by the below 0.5 of St Cloud, Mankato and Bemidji. So how can ECAC teams all be above 0.5. (Minnesota fans will be reminded of Lake Webegon, where everyone is above average.)

I had not realized that collectively they had a bunch of games against LIU and Sacred Heart. And it is those games which are 'amplified' in the "opponents" and "opponents' opponents" winning percentages that lift them all above 0.5. Colgate benefits from Quinnipiac having beating LIU and Sacred Heart each three times, and Clarkson benefits from Colgate benefitting from Quinnipiac having beaten LUI and Sacred Heart. Etc Etc

Without 'common opponents', the Pairwise is driven all the more by RPI; They become essentially the same ranking. And with so little non-conference play, RPI for some teams is driven all the more by the very few non-conference games that were played. Clarkson is flat-out a .500 team. In a normal year, there is zero chance a .500 team is anywhere near the top 8 in RPI or Pairwise,

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There may not be a 'good answer' to 'which eight teams?' this year. But WCHA getting three and even four teams may be as good an answer as any.

 

[Offsides Guy]

I don't think so. Certainly it is not 'necessary'.

Keeping in mind that because there has been so little inter-conference play, the rating systems 'break down' and the usual RPI and Pairwise (and KRACH) become less useful, nevertheless there are eight slots and four conferences. So go conference by conference, and see where you get:

If Penn State wins the CHA tournament and auto-bid, does CHA have a second team that deserves a slot? #13, #14 and #15 in the RPI? (More on RPI in a minute)

ECAC has only four teams playing, do they deserve a second team? Their RPIs say yes, but...

Hockey East's #2 team (for the moment) is already done, out of their tournament, is #8 in the RPI, and might get dropped to #9 this weekend (possibly by Duluth). Will they have a second team 'worthy' of a slot when their tournament has ended?

So, who gets the eight slots? Which conference(s) get a second team such that Minnesota or Duluth doesn't get in?

---------------
Without 'common opponents', the Pairwise is driven all the more by RPI; They become essentially the same ranking. And with so little non-conference play, RPI for some teams is driven all the more by the very few non-conference games that were played. Clarkson is flat-out a .500 team. In a normal year, there is zero chance a .500 team is anywhere near the top 8 in RPI or Pairwise,

--------------

There may not be a 'good answer' to 'which eight teams?' this year. But WCHA getting three and even four teams may be as good an answer as any.

Do the the WCHA teams have to be concerned at all with any kind of East Coast or anti-WCHA bias when it comes to the selection process?

 

[robertearle]

Do the the WCHA teams have to be concerned at all with any kind of East Coast or anti-WCHA bias when it comes to the selection process?

No idea. I can see why 'the committee' might be hesitant to name four WCHA teams, though.

But I feel like I should try that all more bluntly and (I hope) succinctly:

Clarkson has a better RPI than Minnesota and would win a Pairwise comparison over Minnesota because Quinnipiac beat LUI and Sacred Heart a bunch of times. Period, full stop.

 

[ARM]

Clarkson has a better RPI than Minnesota and would win a Pairwise comparison over Minnesota because Quinnipiac beat LUI and Sacred Heart a bunch of times.

I think the other series that boosts ECAC teams is Colgate swept Syracuse to start the season. WCHA teams don't have any similar nonconference wins to boost their RPI.

I wonder if the committee will consider OT wins/losses at all. The WCHA treated those results that same as shootouts. Meanwhile, it seems that nationally, the 3-on-3 results are treated the same as play happening with teams five on five. I detest the lack of foresight that the rule-makers in college hockey put into these changes. The players deserve more attention to the task than those in power give to their decisions.

 

[robertearle]

I think the other series that boosts ECAC teams is Colgate swept Syracuse to start the season. WCHA teams don't have any similar nonconference wins to boost their RPI.

Of course. And that is, I think, the only "legitimate" non-conference series anybody played this year (with apologies to LIU and Sacred Heart).

But the eight wins over LUI and Sacred Heart - two by Clarkson and six by Quinnipiac - are going to have a larger effect than that series. Quinnipiac is a 10-5 team, but take out the LUI/Sacred Heart games and they are 4-5. That is, they contribute to or boost the others' RPIs as a .667 team; at .444, they would be a drag on the others' RPIs. After last night, two of the four teams are below .500, yet all four have RPIs above 0.5. That is the exaggerated, amplified effect of 8-0 vs LUI and Sacred Heart as opposed to no similar 'boost' for any other teams.

I'm not 'blaming' anyone; it was perfectly understandable that teams were scrambling to find games and opponents. But it is certainly a factor if one is using RPI to decide who gets into the tournament, The ECAC is Colgate and three teams under .500 (other than LUI/Sacred Heart). How many slots should they get?

 

[Steamboat]

I think the other series that boosts ECAC teams is Colgate swept Syracuse to start the season. WCHA teams don't have any similar nonconference wins to boost their RPI.

I wonder if the committee will consider OT wins/losses at all. The WCHA treated those results that same as shootouts. Meanwhile, it seems that nationally, the 3-on-3 results are treated the same as play happening with teams five on five. I detest the lack of foresight that the rule-makers in college hockey put into these changes. The players deserve more attention to the task than those in power give to their decisions.

Yes, the 3 on 3 situation is ridiculous. This is one area I hope the WCHA gives a lot of focus towards changing next season. I think all of the posters on this site had better ideas for overtime than what we ended up with.

 

[D2D]

It seems like every single year the rules for overtime become an issue.

 

[Timothy A]

Yes, the 3 on 3 situation is ridiculous. This is one area I hope the WCHA gives a lot of focus towards changing next season. I think all of the posters on this site had better ideas for overtime than what we ended up with.

The 3 on 3 is awful. It's not how hockey was meant to be played. Shootouts are right there also.

 

[Timothy A]

Eeeked out a win. Can't really comment much, only saw the highlights. Certainly looked like UW had some puck luck and maybe a helper wearing the opposing jersey on most of the goals. I don't think OSU will be so kind tomorrow.

They need to drop the hammer on OSU. Losing last year sucked in the final, I would appreciate some revenge.

Interesting flip of Curl for Watts on the top 2 lines. Haase's comments on Twitter seemed to indicate that the second line wasn't terrible effective at times. I don't think I'm a fan of changing the line-up at this point in the season. Watts only had 2 sog, Drake 2, Eden 5. Watts need more shots than that, but 9 for a line is ok. The first line was worse! SS 1 Pettet 0 Curl 2. Not going to win many games with the top line getting 3 sog!

 

[Hockeybuckeye]

I just hope we saved enough goals to beat you tomorrow. Looks like the 3 week hiatus didn't hurt us with the rust, rested & healthy instead.
Regardless of who wins tomorrow we'll both seed well in the NCAA's.

 

[ARM]

Regardless of who wins tomorrow we'll both seed well in the NCAA's.

Except that it is highly likely you'll be on the same half of the bracket. Yes, you'll have to beat Wisconsin at some point to win it, but you'd rather that once you do, you're lifting the big trophy.

 

[ManBehindTheCurtain]

Except that it is highly likely you'll be on the same half of the bracket. Yes, you'll have to beat Wisconsin at some point to win it, but you'd rather that once you do, you're lifting the big trophy.

The projected brackets posted by one knowledgeable observer (TTT20) includes as one half of the bracket Wisconsin, Ohio State, Minnesota and UMD. Well, we would all be really excited to see that again. wouldn't we.

 

[Offsides Guy]

The projected brackets posted by one knowledgeable observer (TTT20) includes as one half of the bracket Wisconsin, Ohio State, Minnesota and UMD. Well, we would all be really excited to see that again. wouldn't we.

I really hope that is not the case. It would be way more fun to see east/ west matchups then repeat of the WCHA Jamboree!

 

[Timothy A]

The projected brackets posted by one knowledgeable observer (TTT20) includes as one half of the bracket Wisconsin, Ohio State, Minnesota and UMD. Well, we would all be really excited to see that again. wouldn't we.

That would be completely ridiculous. There's no way anyone would be that stupid.

 

[ARM]

There's no way anyone would be that stupid.

There are people in this country who believe that Joe Biden wearing a mask is really Donald Trump running the country while wearing a disguise. Never underestimate stupidity.

 

[Offsides Guy]

There are people in this country who believe that Joe Biden wearing a mask is really Donald Trump running the country while wearing a disguise. Never underestimate stupidity.

Good one! Ha!

 

[robertearle]

Interesting flip of Curl for Watts on the top 2 lines. Haase's comments on Twitter seemed to indicate that the second line wasn't terrible effective at times. I don't think I'm a fan of changing the line-up at this point in the season. Watts only had 2 sog, Drake 2, Eden 5. Watts need more shots than that, but 9 for a line is ok. The first line was worse! SS 1 Pettet 0 Curl 2. Not going to win many games with the top line getting 3 sog!

Maybe this Johnson knows what he's doing, after all...

 

[Hockeybuckeye]

Congratulation on the title. Both teams scored on the opportunities that were given them and we gave you the best chance of the game on your winning goal.
No complaints from me that the officiating hurt Ohio State today but I am still scratching my head over the situation that has Wisconsin's box overflowing. Rather confusing!

 

[Timothy A]

Maybe this Johnson knows what he's doing, after all...

IDK, how did the first line do? LOL.

 

[Timothy A]

I was dreading a first round game with UMD or MN, hoping for an eastern team, and UW got it. I really thought UW had to get the 1 seed to avoid getting another wcha team. Obviously the smoky room decision over-valued UMD and undervalued UM.