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UVM Offseason Thread - building for a 3rd Straight Bid

Re: UVM Offseason Thread - building for a 3rd Straight Bid

Nice analysis Observer :


But I disagree with a few of your placements.

Especially on Matt White, he did take a year off and play less competitive hockey. ALthough he took the time off he I think he steps up just fine. Central Scouting still has him around 100 going into this years draft. He will be drafted, and if the NHL is still that high on him, I suspect he will be playing 3rd or 2nd line. Not sitting out of the line up. While his timing maybe a bit off due to the increased speed of the game at the NCAA level, his skills are still there and I really think he will be a major contributer.

But White is still an 18 year old without recent junior experience. The NHL drafts on projected expectations. Hasn't really worked out for Matt Marshall who was also a top 100 on the Central Scouting list and today, he would not even get a snift based on his first 2 years at UVM. Guess time will tell.

I also don't see a freshman Lenz centering the first line ahead of Stalberg, who IMO is the best player on the ice this year, and McCarthy (possiby the best scorer). I think there are enough good upperclassmen that you won't see any freshman on the top line. That said Brickely will make a run at it.

I have Lenz centering Brickley and Downing. Not necessarily a 1st line. Sneddon's 1st and 2nd lines are interchangable. Lenz, while a freshman, is a 1989 birthyear. He turned 21 on April 8th. So when the season starts, he will be a 21.5 year old. He is older than Stalberg and McCarthy. I am thinking having played together with Brickley all last season will prove to be beneficial.

I also think Leonard will see more ice time this year at the expense of DeCenzo who had a mediocre season this past year. Leonard has that energy that Sneddon really likes to put on the 4th line. Leonard has always been a player that knows his job and does it 110%, perfect 4th liner IMO.

Leonard is a complimentary player who has had to work real hard in practice to get a shot at the lineup - based on his interviews in the past couple of years. No doubt he is an energy guy, perhaps he will be this years version of what Andy Corran was 3 years ago, Reese Wisnowski was 2 years ago and what Jon Higgins was last year. A senior who is a local kid and fills a role with passion, which is not always a bad thing.

But of course this is pure speculation. I agree with also with your assessments with the D. Lawson and Mack are much more offensive minded then Medvec and Miller. I think Sneddon will split them, keeping one of his more offensive minded Dmen paired with one of the team leaders, Medvec-Miller. I thought Franzon played great last year as a freshman and I think he is going to be groomed for a "C" so I expect him to see sometime with Miller or Medvec as well.

On the UVM website, there is still a line sheet from the Hockey East semi-final game versus Boston College. Medvec was paired with MacKenzie, Miller with Lawson, Franzon with Cullity. I could see these pairings - minus Cullity of course - being used to start the season.

The trips to the NCAA and the success of UVM players in the NHL and in reaching the NHL has started to pay off in getting top prospects. UVM needs a new arena to really compete with the big programs. Here's hoping that moves along as the economy slowly recovers a bit.

While a new arena would be nice, I am not convinced it would make that much of a difference. Kids come to different schools for different reasons. Some actually come for the school itself, some for the coaching staff, some for the chance to make a difference and be part of starting a new tradition versus just being a replacement player at a "name" program. Playing in a building with character and a sold out fan base is not a bad thing. They just need to make sure they compete with a nice locker room set up and weight training set up. Similar to what Northeastern did last year.
 
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Re: UVM Offseason Thread - building for a 3rd Straight Bid

Finally some interesting chatter on this site. Nice work.

I think White will at least get a shot at one of the top three lines. yes he is going to have an adjustment but there is no reason why he can't make it relatively quickly.

I did not know that Lenz' numbers were so similar to Brickley - interesting - although I guess there is a fair amount of age difference.

I don't know if I see Stalburg playing at the NHL level, but he did step up huge in the second half after a fairly disappointing early season and arguably was the best forward in the second half. If that continues then an pro career is viable AND he will be a force in Hockey East. He is excellent on both sides of the puck. I also said his brother would never stick in the NHL because he did not know what D is - but clearly I was wrong there. Of course Toronto does not know what D is but I will still concede I was incorrect. Sebastian is definitely a better two way player at an early stage of his college career. He just does not likely have the same level of offensive upside (speed and nasty shot)

One of the potential upsides for the Cats is that McCarthy and Pacan both came in early last year and were young for freshmen. With a year of experience, maturity, and weights I think there is likely to be a decent step up for each of them that could really make them each a much greater force.

I'm not sure what to think of Stacey. Flashes of brilliance and stretches of mediocrity with many injuries. I'm not counting on him to carry the team but I agree there is upside if he stays healthy and puts it all together.

Marshall. I don't even know what to say. I like his parents FWIW. And he can skate. But the puck WILL NOT stay on his stick. He does not even get to the point where you could say he can't finish, because he does not get many opportunities to even get a shot. We expected him to step up last year and it did not happen. Does it click this year? I'm not counting on it but with those wheels he could be a pleasant surprise.

Downing. Not sure what to say here. Fewer flashes of brilliance than Stacey but still has some. But also has a propensity to disappear for long stretches of periods, games, weekends, months. I'm not sure there is quite as much upside here as there is in Stalburg, McCarthy, Pacan, NRoos.....

Burrows. Was it a fluke or is he a possible monster season waiting to happen? He seems to have a knack for finishing. With a good setup guy he could be a weapon waiting to go on a rampage. I like him up front.

Leonard. I like the energy. I will be suprised if he's not a pretty regular 4th line guy but he's not going to put up Lenes numbers on any line.

D. I still don't understand what happened last year through mid season. too much expectation, too many FF stars in the eyes? I'm THRILLED to see them all coming back (so far at least). They will likely be a force. I like all the returning players. Medvec could have a MONSTER season. I think Mackenzie has offensive ability and agree that Lawson does as well. Franzon was good last year and has upside. Herrington did ok when given a chance but Bruneteau is my dark horse to be a real nice addition and quarterback the power play back to at least mediocrity.

Young Vazzanno may see a fair amount of PT and could even steal the starting goaltender spot.

The big intangible and biggest unknown is team leadership. But I have a suscipion that the D might have that under control this year.

I look for a 4th place finish in HE behind BC, Maine and BU or UNH and sneaking into the tourney. But I am probably more optomistic than most. NU, UNH, BU, and Mack will all be fighting for 3rd and 4th also.
 
Re: UVM Offseason Thread - building for a 3rd Straight Bid

Nice to see Patrick Sharp lift the cup third after Toews and Hossa last night. He was a very key guy on that championship squad.

I remember when he played center and some D for the Cats under Gilligan. His two seasons in the Gutt were not our best but he was a very good player.

Congrats to him for getting his name on the cup.
 
Re: UVM Offseason Thread - building for a 3rd Straight Bid

someone suggested that a new rink wouldn't necessarily help recruiting--are you kidding me---.please don't tell that to the administration.
 
Re: UVM Offseason Thread - building for a 3rd Straight Bid

The new rink is on the short list, but it's still going to be a while due to the grim financial situation resulting from:

the general economy
the spend and tax VT legislature which underfunds UVM
the many other hungry mouths to feed at UVM (employee unions)

What we as fans can do to help is:

-contribute to the Victory Club
-talk up the team and the need for a new venue
-attend the games - sell them out - and complain about needing more seats
-pack the house so the recruits at least see a supportive crowd, it would be worse to have a nice facility and not enough fans

I'm not a basketball fan but they need the new facility even more than the hockey team
 
Re: UVM Offseason Thread - building for a 3rd Straight Bid

Medvec (L) and Miller (R)
MacKenzie (L) and Lawson (L)
Franzon (R) and whoever steps up in practice – L.Herrington (R), Bruneteau or Griem.

I think Medvec and Miller will be the shut down defensive pairing, yet I think they both have offensive upside. MacKenzie and Lawson are both 2 way D, with more offensive tendencies, which might mean whichever goalie (Madore or Vazzano –times 2) who is playing, sees an odd man rush or 2. L.Herrington has had 2 years to develop and one would think he can play ahead of 2 incoming freshmen. I know nothing of Bruneteau or Griem but look forward to seeing both at some point next season.

Didn't Medvec and MacKenzie pair up a lot last year?
 
Re: UVM Offseason Thread - building for a 3rd Straight Bid

Didn't Medvec and MacKenzie pair up a lot last year?

Only toward the end of the year. MacKenzie was with Franzon most of the year if I recall. Medvec was mostly with Burrows until he went up to the forward lines.
 
Re: UVM Offseason Thread - building for a 3rd Straight Bid

I would not be surprised to see Seb Stalburg drafted. By the end of the year he was reminding me of Torrey Mitchell in his fresman season. What was missing was Scott Mifsud and his 54 points on his forward line.

McCarthy would be more of a stretch to get drafted but I think he also has nice upside with a little more strength

In any case, it's nice to see the CAT youngsters getting some PR attention.

It bodes well for the next few seasons.

Just over 3.5 months until the first game....
 
Re: UVM Offseason Thread - building for a 3rd Straight Bid

Looks like Army and Ohio State will be 2 of the 3 teams joining us for the Catamount Cup on Jan 1st and Jan 2nd, got that from the official schedule posted for Ohio State on their offseason thread. Wonder who the 3rd team will be...guessing one of our old ECAC rivals.

Also, Connor Brickley was ranked #47 on TSN's final draft ranking, the rankings are at the website below:

http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=7323
 
Re: UVM Offseason Thread - building for a 3rd Straight Bid

Here's the latest on schedule that I can put together from what's been posted on the site. I guess it is probably Dartmouth, another ECAC opponent who has not released their schedule yet, an exhibition and the rest of our Hockey East schedule that still remains to be seen.

Date/Opponent

Oct 8/Denver
Oct 9/Denver
Oct30/Maine
Nov6/@ Providence
Dec5/@ UNH
Dec8/@ Yale
Jan1/ Ohio State (Catamount Cup)
Jan2/ Army/Other (Catamount Cup)
Feb4/Providence
Feb5/Providence
Feb11/@ Maine
Feb12/@Maine
Feb18/UNH
Feb19/UNH
 
Re: UVM Offseason Thread - building for a 3rd Straight Bid

Here's the latest on schedule that I can put together from what's been posted on the site. I guess it is probably Dartmouth, another ECAC opponent who has not released their schedule yet, an exhibition and the rest of our Hockey East schedule that still remains to be seen.

Date/Opponent

Oct 8/Denver
Oct 9/Denver
Oct30/Maine
Nov6/@ Providence
Dec5/@ UNH
Dec8/@ Yale
Jan1/ Ohio State (Catamount Cup)
Jan2/ Army/Other (Catamount Cup)
Feb4/Providence
Feb5/Providence
Feb11/@ Maine
Feb12/@Maine
Feb18/UNH
Feb19/UNH

On the season thread, I believe SLU has posted a game with UVM on Dec. 18th. Since we know there is a running agreement with DC I think that rounds out the OOC.


Denver
Denver
Yale
St. lawerence
Ohio State (or other)
Army (or other)
Dartmouth.

I think its safe to count on DU and Yale to be in the top rankings again. SLU has had a decent teams in past years and could be a TUC at the end of the year. And of course HE being the top league in the country will lead to another competitive year.
 
Re: UVM Offseason Thread - building for a 3rd Straight Bid

And of course HE being the top league in the country will lead to another competitive year.

Is it 1999 again? HE will be average to below average this year. HE was average last year. Compared to last year:

UML down (graduated eleventy billion seniors). Will be terrible.
UMA down (3 best players turned pro). Will be terrible.
Maine UP (what about goaltending?). Will be ok.
BC even. Will be filthy.
BU down (3 best players turned pro). Could still be ok if things break right.
UNH even (goaltending?). Probably will be ok, they always are.
Merrimack UP. Still average at best.
UVM down (top 4 scorers graduated). Still a team that will be tough to beat.
NU up. Average team.
PC ... does it matter? Putrid team.

Lots of average or below average teams in there. 1 juggernaut. Very few teams even between average and juggernaut.
 
Re: UVM Offseason Thread - building for a 3rd Straight Bid

Is it 1999 again? HE will be average to below average this year. HE was average last year. Compared to last year:

.


I disagree. Last season the 8th place team made the field of 16. The league was closer then ever and any team could win on any given weekend
(except PC). The interleague records would have had HE up on every one if UNH hadn't decide to boycott non-league games. I think HE was again the top league in hockey.

This year I see

UML down
UMA down
ME in the NCAA
UNH TUC
BC in the NCAA
BU TUC
MC TUC
UVM in the NCAA
NU maybe a TUC
PC why bother.
 
Re: UVM Offseason Thread - building for a 3rd Straight Bid

HE was average last year. Compared to last year:

Conference vs. 'Big 4'
AHA 10-42-4 (.214)
CCHA 28-24-9 (.533)
CHA 16-32-6 (.352)
ECAC 15-39-8 (.306)
HEA 33-24-3 (.575)
WCHA 33-22-6 (.590)

Average? Only the WCHA was better by 3 ties? I would say HE was well above average. Had UNH won even one of their games against Wisco, instead of going 1-5-1 we would have been tops over everyone. Average? I don't think so.
 
Re: UVM Offseason Thread - building for a 3rd Straight Bid

Last year was a strange year for Hockey East. From October thru March, I thought the conference was down. UNH was steady throughout, BU was up and down, BC was up and down and UVM was consistenly mediocre.

UNH seemed to be the most solid team heading into the NCAAs compared to UVM and BC but, well, RIT. BC caught fire and toyed with the best the ECAC, CCHA and WCHA had to offer in the tournament.

I think next year will be similar. BC and UVM will make the NCAAs with Maine and UNH fighting for a spot along with BU. The bottom teams in Hockey East will be awful next year (PC, Lowell, UMass).
 
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