PSUChamps2001
Member of the REAL Zoo Crew
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Utica College Pioneers '13-'14 = Lewiston or Bust
- Thread starter jcase
- Start date
Who?
Re: Utica College Pioneers '13-'14 = Lewiston or Bust
Emory University - it's in Georgia
Not sure what it has do with hockey though ...
Emory University - it's in Georgia
Not sure what it has do with hockey though ...
norm1909
Larry Normandin
haulin oats
New member
Seems like Coach Emery knows what's going on on these message boards. Quick poll; Emory is a message board lurker, or he has a screenname?
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Fishman'81
Black Bear since D-2
Re: Utica College Pioneers '13-'14 = Lewiston or Bust
OZ, I realize that you were joking, but there's generally not much sense to be made of the polls during any given season.
This year there's been a bit more evidence than there usually is, however... So far, the Western-bloc has owned the East (providing that one considers Adrian a Western team.)
There's going to be more data available before too long, but as of right now, we here back-East are their puppies.
OZ, I realize that you were joking, but there's generally not much sense to be made of the polls during any given season.
This year there's been a bit more evidence than there usually is, however... So far, the Western-bloc has owned the East (providing that one considers Adrian a Western team.)
There's going to be more data available before too long, but as of right now, we here back-East are their puppies.
Fishman'81
Black Bear since D-2
Re: Utica College Pioneers '13-'14 = Lewiston or Bust
Won't make the TBT game tomorrow, and I might well be happy that I decided to work instead: Salve Regina doesn't appear to be chopped-liver this season; Neumann needed 4 PP goals and OT to beat them.
Thus far, it isn't "business as usual" in D-3.
Won't make the TBT game tomorrow, and I might well be happy that I decided to work instead: Salve Regina doesn't appear to be chopped-liver this season; Neumann needed 4 PP goals and OT to beat them.
Thus far, it isn't "business as usual" in D-3.
Re: Utica College Pioneers '13-'14 = Lewiston or Bust
TBT game was closer than final score. Game was 3-1 with 2+ minutes left. UC continues to struggle on PP, but PK continues to shine. Heenan said in post-game interview they have not played very well and have a long way to go when asked about return to FF this year. The record is good but they certainly still aren't firing on all cylinders yet.
TBT game was closer than final score. Game was 3-1 with 2+ minutes left. UC continues to struggle on PP, but PK continues to shine. Heenan said in post-game interview they have not played very well and have a long way to go when asked about return to FF this year. The record is good but they certainly still aren't firing on all cylinders yet.
Fishman'81
Black Bear since D-2
Re: Utica College Pioneers '13-'14 = Lewiston or Bust
I agreed completely with your assessment, and with Gary's post-game comments... This team has plenty of speed and talent, but they just haven't put it together yet.
Some of that is on the coaching; there are too many guys free-lancing, and not nearly enough bodies in the low-slot on the forecheck to hammer-away at loose pucks.
UC should be undefeated right now; they have been the more talented team in every game they've played, but they are often a little too cute with the puck, and lack a sense of urgency...
The USU18 team will certainly disabuse them of any notion that they're too gifted to be bothered to work hard. (My prediction is a double-digit beat-down, after watching the U-18 team take out Michigan the other night.)
I agreed completely with your assessment, and with Gary's post-game comments... This team has plenty of speed and talent, but they just haven't put it together yet.
Some of that is on the coaching; there are too many guys free-lancing, and not nearly enough bodies in the low-slot on the forecheck to hammer-away at loose pucks.
UC should be undefeated right now; they have been the more talented team in every game they've played, but they are often a little too cute with the puck, and lack a sense of urgency...
The USU18 team will certainly disabuse them of any notion that they're too gifted to be bothered to work hard. (My prediction is a double-digit beat-down, after watching the U-18 team take out Michigan the other night.)
Fishman'81
Black Bear since D-2
Re: Utica College Pioneers '13-'14 = Lewiston or Bust
Tell me about it... This is the first time in a long time that the W's OOC W%/SOS is looking very pedestrian.
If Utica hopes to gain an NCAA berth this year, I predict that they're going to be obliged to win a ton of games vs. no-name opposition. (That's worked for Norwich for some time now in the ECAC-East, right?)
Let's not forget that the season is still young, but your point resonates in light of Wesleyan hammering Hobart... I certainly didn't see that one coming.
Tell me about it... This is the first time in a long time that the W's OOC W%/SOS is looking very pedestrian.
If Utica hopes to gain an NCAA berth this year, I predict that they're going to be obliged to win a ton of games vs. no-name opposition. (That's worked for Norwich for some time now in the ECAC-East, right?)
Let's not forget that the season is still young, but your point resonates in light of Wesleyan hammering Hobart... I certainly didn't see that one coming.
You better hope UW-point starts losing some games
Re: Utica College Pioneers '13-'14 = Lewiston or Bust
At this point, the ECAC W teams are in trouble for Pool B.
Your OWP for games played within conference is always going to exactly 0.500. For your OWP to go up, your conference mates must win non-conference games and you must schedule your non-conference games against teams with winning records. Combining those two is what is required for a good OWP, which is 2/3 of the SOS measure (actually it accounts for about 80% of the variation in the SOS metric, because the standard deviation of OWP is twice that of OOWP, which make the ratio of effects about 4:1 instead of the 2:1 ratio people think it is). I could write a lot more on the topic, but the key for ECAC/W to get the Pool B over UWSP is going to be for all the teams to start winning NC games.
At this point, the ECAC W teams are in trouble for Pool B.
Your OWP for games played within conference is always going to exactly 0.500. For your OWP to go up, your conference mates must win non-conference games and you must schedule your non-conference games against teams with winning records. Combining those two is what is required for a good OWP, which is 2/3 of the SOS measure (actually it accounts for about 80% of the variation in the SOS metric, because the standard deviation of OWP is twice that of OOWP, which make the ratio of effects about 4:1 instead of the 2:1 ratio people think it is). I could write a lot more on the topic, but the key for ECAC/W to get the Pool B over UWSP is going to be for all the teams to start winning NC games.
PSUChamps2001
Member of the REAL Zoo Crew
Re: Utica College Pioneers '13-'14 = Lewiston or Bust
Boy its too bad the ECAC West doesn't have that automatic playoff bid now eh? (TIC)
Boy its too bad the ECAC West doesn't have that automatic playoff bid now eh? (TIC)
You better hope UW-point starts losing some games
Re: Utica College Pioneers '13-'14 = Lewiston or Bust
One more time ... (and not just in Norwich's defense, because the same facts are there for everybody). In the SOS metric it doesn't matter who is in your conference as long as they do well enough against other conferences - the OWP for all your conference games taken together is exactly 0.500 whether you are the vaunted ECAC West or the "lowly" ECAC Northeast. (This year, for the first time since the "Pool" selection process was implemented, out of region games count, too.) If your conference wins games outside of the conference it boosts your OWP. If you schedule non-conference games against teams with winning records it boosts your OWP. Those are the two ingredients required to get a good OWP - OOWP has some interesting twists, but that's something for another day (and probably another web site).
Historically (since the demise of the ECAC/E - NESCAC Interlock) Norwich's own non-conference schedule is aways pretty much the same - Plattsburgh, Middlebury, two games in the Primelink, and two games in the Northfield Savings Bank Tournament make 24 games on the schedule because the ECAC East plays 18 games. Game #25 this year was against Plymouth State. In the past game #25 was an exhibition game with Dartmouth. Usually at least one of the NSB tournament games has been against a ranked team, and often both. This year, unfortunately, MSOE is the first game on the slate for Norwich at the NSB. I'm sure nobody expected MSOE to fall as low as they seem to have fallen.
One more time ... (and not just in Norwich's defense, because the same facts are there for everybody). In the SOS metric it doesn't matter who is in your conference as long as they do well enough against other conferences - the OWP for all your conference games taken together is exactly 0.500 whether you are the vaunted ECAC West or the "lowly" ECAC Northeast. (This year, for the first time since the "Pool" selection process was implemented, out of region games count, too.) If your conference wins games outside of the conference it boosts your OWP. If you schedule non-conference games against teams with winning records it boosts your OWP. Those are the two ingredients required to get a good OWP - OOWP has some interesting twists, but that's something for another day (and probably another web site).
Historically (since the demise of the ECAC/E - NESCAC Interlock) Norwich's own non-conference schedule is aways pretty much the same - Plattsburgh, Middlebury, two games in the Primelink, and two games in the Northfield Savings Bank Tournament make 24 games on the schedule because the ECAC East plays 18 games. Game #25 this year was against Plymouth State. In the past game #25 was an exhibition game with Dartmouth. Usually at least one of the NSB tournament games has been against a ranked team, and often both. This year, unfortunately, MSOE is the first game on the slate for Norwich at the NSB. I'm sure nobody expected MSOE to fall as low as they seem to have fallen.
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Re: Utica College Pioneers '13-'14 = Lewiston or Bust
Going further -- is the ECAC-W in trouble for Pool C?
Going further -- is the ECAC-W in trouble for Pool C?
Re: Utica College Pioneers '13-'14 = Lewiston or Bust
It is possible - as always it depends on who doesn't win the dreaded conference tournaments. The fact is we traded the (original) NCHA slot for the Pool B slot, so the number of C's is still the same. In my rankings (unaudited) Utica is the top ranking ECAC W team, but their OWP is really bad - fueled by who they have played and the lack of OOC success by the rest of the ECAC W. So, in short yes, they could (for the first time since the Pool system started) be shut out of the NCAAs.
The good news that there is still time, but the ECAC W needs to stop losing to the SUNYACs to get whoever their top team is going to be. Only Hobart and Naz have decent OWPs, and that is based on who they have scheduled their NC games against (Naz is helped a lot by having played Adrian). Naz is going nowhere, but their OWP will contribute to everybody else's OOWp.
It is possible - as always it depends on who doesn't win the dreaded conference tournaments. The fact is we traded the (original) NCHA slot for the Pool B slot, so the number of C's is still the same. In my rankings (unaudited) Utica is the top ranking ECAC W team, but their OWP is really bad - fueled by who they have played and the lack of OOC success by the rest of the ECAC W. So, in short yes, they could (for the first time since the Pool system started) be shut out of the NCAAs.
The good news that there is still time, but the ECAC W needs to stop losing to the SUNYACs to get whoever their top team is going to be. Only Hobart and Naz have decent OWPs, and that is based on who they have scheduled their NC games against (Naz is helped a lot by having played Adrian). Naz is going nowhere, but their OWP will contribute to everybody else's OOWp.
PSUChamps2001
Member of the REAL Zoo Crew
* remaining NC Schedule are a combined 53-62-12
* Cortland x5
* Geneseo x4
* Oswego x3
* Williams, Buff St, Fredonia, Potsdam, Morrisville, Nicols x2
* Southern Maine, Stout, Curry, Brockport, Hamilton x1
I didn't put in 2nd day tournament games because you don't know at this point.
In short, the West is behind the 8-ball and will need to really come out in the games against OSU, Geneseo, Williams and Buff State and not falter against the lower end teams any more.
