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US Foreign Policy 3.0: We're The Mets of International Diplomacy

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Putin is looking for a way to save this...he either can broker a peace where he loses or he is going to manufacture a way to justify WW3. Look for something to happen that resembles a crappy plot from a second rate Cold War spy thriller. Maybe a soldier from a NATO country is "captured" or an "attack" in Russia is linked to Ukraine or an ally. That is about the level of intellect Putin is playing at it seems...

I said months ago the Russian Military is a paper tiger and Ukraine is showing that. Not much has changed since the days my Great Grandfather fought in WW1 for Russia...it is corrupt, it is weak and it has no sense of real strategy. They basically throw bodies at the problem and hope to win a battle of attrition. (my Great Grandfather was shot 9 different times and was once sent to the front with a broom handle)

Kepler is right, Putin's regime will never wash off the stink of this. The question is how he reacts to that.
 
Handyman said:
Putin is looking for a way to save this...he either can broker a peace where he loses or he is going to manufacture a way to justify WW3. Look for something to happen that resembles a crappy plot from a second rate Cold War spy thriller. Maybe a soldier from a NATO country is "captured" or an "attack" in Russia is linked to Ukraine or an ally. That is about the level of intellect Putin is playing at it seems...
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Awww man. Why'd you have to go and ruin the latest Tom Clancy book like that?


Seriously, the only off-ramp Putin will take is if he get Ukraine in whole and installs his puppet President.

Ukraine wants Russia gone completely (including the DPR and LPR regions).

Ideally, Russia would back out, Ukraine would give up LPR & DPR, but Ukraine joins NATO.

Realistically, Russia dirty bombs Belarus or itself if Ukraine holds off any longer, blames Ukraine. Nukes Kyiv.
 
Clancy is exactly the level I put Putin at...

I don't think Putin goes all the way...nukes or even total destruction of Kyiv won't get him what he wants and the rebuttal will make the economic sanctions look like we didn't pay him his allowance. If he steps over the line he might as well Hitler himself in a bunker cause his days will be numbered.
 
Russell Jaslow said:
It's not everybody is it? They may be able to limit the size of a delegation, but not eliminate it.
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This is what the UN website says according to Rule 25:

"The delegation of a Member shall consist of not more than five representatives and five alternate representatives and as many advisers, technical advisers, experts and persons of similar status as may be required by the delegation."

So, the latter part of that sentence kind of leaves it open ended.
 
French Rage said:
Some bars are changing "Moscow Mule" to "Kiev Mule" in the belief that is helping anyone.
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Big Russian restaurant here in town is owned by my friends family. They are getting some crazy messages and had to start they fled Russia themselves decades ago.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
Legitimately didn't think this was possible. The US just PNGed 12 of Russia's UN diplomats.
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That actually takes me back to the good old days of the Cold War. It hurts nobody and the Russians can respond by kicking 12 of ours out. I know when we do it we usually just pull a list of the ones we know they know we know are spies. Then they do ours. It's so normal it actually makes me more comfortable.

When we start taking them out back and shooting them is when I head for... um... sh-t, I guess nowhere.
 
In the pictures I have seen from the Russia/Ukraine diplomat summit, every guy looks like Dave Attell or Buck Henry.
 
aparch said:
Realistically, Russia dirty bombs Belarus or itself if Ukraine holds off any longer, blames Ukraine. Nukes Kyiv.
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That's not realistic, it's insane.

People really need to stop talking about nukes like it's a video game. No regime that used nukes could ever be permitted to continue to exist. There would be literally no reason not to assume their repeated use.

Russia has territorial disputes with:
  • Ukraine
  • Finland
  • Japan
  • Poland
  • Turkey
  • Every Baltic State
  • China
Every one of those states would consider Russia an existential threat if they used nukes to resolve a border dispute with any of the others.
 
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