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US Foreign Policy 3.0: We're The Mets of International Diplomacy

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So a weird "hobby" (i guess you could say) that I picked up years ago was to watch air traffic every now and then. I've been watching the military flights over europe the last couple weeks and it's been getting more and more interesting. Today there's a P-8 Poseidon circling the USS Harry Truman in the Adriatic. Which seems normal the more I think about it.

Yesterday and the day before, there was an MQ-4 global hawk flying and being tracked openly on Flight Radar. You don't see those super often. Anyways, it was doing laps around Ukraine and the Black Sea for a very long time. It had to be 10-20+ hours.

Plus, it sounds like Russia has told eveyrone to keep out of large swaths of the Black SEa for "missile exercises" they are going to be conducting for a couple weeks.

Also, one of the first times I've seen F15s openly flying on tracked radar.

The brits have told everyone to GTFO now. Like, now now.

Anyways, I'm also seeing increasing number of reports that an invasion is not only certain but is most likely to happen this weekend due to favorable weather and crunching timelines due to melting snow and mud hurting tank movement. This weekend is going to be fucking tense...
 
Us has now told americans to get out immediately.

Also noteworthy: Two Ukrainian emergency flights and another masked-registration just departed Kharkiv area and are moving straight west.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
Anyways, I'm also seeing increasing number of reports that an invasion is not only certain but is most likely to happen this weekend due to favorable weather and crunching timelines due to melting snow and mud hurting tank movement. This weekend is going to be fucking tense...
Click to expand...

This could be amusing - Russia trapping itself and their Cold War-era military tech in a land war in Asia during spring melt.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
So a weird "hobby" (i guess you could say) that I picked up years ago was to watch air traffic every now and then. I've been watching the military flights over europe the last couple weeks and it's been getting more and more interesting. Today there's a P-8 Poseidon circling the USS Harry Truman in the Adriatic. Which seems normal the more I think about it.

Yesterday and the day before, there was an MQ-4 global hawk flying and being tracked openly on Flight Radar. You don't see those super often. Anyways, it was doing laps around Ukraine and the Black Sea for a very long time. It had to be 10-20+ hours.

Plus, it sounds like Russia has told eveyrone to keep out of large swaths of the Black SEa for "missile exercises" they are going to be conducting for a couple weeks.

Also, one of the first times I've seen F15s openly flying on tracked radar.

The brits have told everyone to GTFO now. Like, now now.

Anyways, I'm also seeing increasing number of reports that an invasion is not only certain but is most likely to happen this weekend due to favorable weather and crunching timelines due to melting snow and mud hurting tank movement. This weekend is going to be fucking tense...
Click to expand...

Do you use FlightRadar and filter for mil flights?

I watch the cop helicopters whenever they decide to do a little Thin Blue Line Thuggery in downtown LA. They are so thick in the air in their tight circles it's a wonder they don't collide.

The footage of the tank exercises in Belarus is pretty Battle of Kursk:

yq-rusmilitary2-10022022.jpg
 
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Kepler said:
Do you use FlightRadar and filter for mil flights?

I watch the cop helicopters whenever they decide to do a little Thin Blue Line Thuggery in downtown LA. They are so thick in the air in their tight circles it's a wonder they don't collide.

The footage of the tank exercises in Belarus is pretty Battle of Kursk:

yq-rusmilitary2-10022022.jpg
Click to expand...

Yeah. My custom filters are:
Registration: 90,91,92,93,94,95,96,97,98,99,8,70,71,72,73,74,75, 76,77,78,79,6,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,40,41, 42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,3,2,1,0
Registration: ZM,ZK,ZZ,ZH,Z,R

#1 is for us military flights, but it includes a lot of other militaries as well
#2 is for the brits and russia.
 
FadeToBlack&Gold said:
This could be amusing - Russia trapping itself and their Cold War-era military tech in a land war in Asia during spring melt.
Click to expand...

Yeah could be interesting especially since it sounds like they want to make it to Kyiv, fast.

Who knows. It's interesting that we're getting such a developed picture of the intelligence. I wasn't really aware of what happened with the build up to the Gulf War or even Crimea if I'm being honest. SO I have no idea if this seemingly oversharing of information is strategic. I'm assuming it is. Be it a negotiation tactic or just plain ol' propaganda.
 
We should kick Russia off the Security Council for launching an invasion of a sovereign state with whom there is no legitimate casus belli.

But that would be kinda awkward after Iraq, oopsie.

Thanks, Cheney.
 
I wish the old Norse threat map was still around. The new ones blow.

SOmeone once told me to watch that map for the start of WWIII.
 
Jimjamesak said:
I gotta say, starting a war in the middle of an Olympics is a bold move.
Click to expand...

This would be the THIRD time Russia has invaded a country during an Olympics held in China. They invaded Georgia in 08. And Ukraine in 2014. Guess its a great time to invade when the world is celebrating peace?
 
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