UNH Hockey 2023-2024 Season Thread - End Of The Cellar-Dweller Era??

[Chuck Murray]

Chuck and I are probably the only ones who see the irony in this question....

LOL ... y'know Felgie, the whole gambling thing has become SO ubiquitous in recent years, one has to feel a certain amount of sympathy for the small-time Fitzy's and Sully's at The Heights, whose side hustle as small-time bookies has all but collapsed with the legalization of sports betting in most nearby jurisdictions these days. No doubt, that gives BC big wigs like Father Leahy and his second-in-command Kevin Shea (ironically, most notable for his own HEA officiating side hustle) one less headache to deal with, but we've lost some of the old fun we used to enjoy on here with the overriding fascination the folks on The Heights used to show for their gaming exploits.

 

[Snively65]

Oh I hear ya - a great facility; played on that sheet many times in my years living in that hood. Hanaway rink was the turning point for the program, for sure. Had to be relatively unappealing to drive recruits to the barn in Waterville Valley, despite the fact that they had the best ice surface north of Concord...

Yup, that drive to/from WV from Plymouth can be a bear in snowy conditions. Compare to Bentley students complaining about the 3-mile, free bus ride to/from the John A. Ryan Skating Arena in Watertown for home games before they opened their beautiful arena on campus.

Holderness Academy has enclosed their outdoor rink now, also.

 

[HockeyRef]

I don't think it is a goalie problem. It is an in consistent offense problem and a playing from behind problem. Which then also leads to a defense problem and goalies getting hung out to dry.

Start with the last one, playing from behind, first. Like all middling teams these guys don't do well coming from behind. If it gets at all out of hand they aren't able to come back.
[TABLE="border: 1, cellpadding: 1, width: 500"]
[TR]
[TD]When...[/TD]
[TD]Leading[/TD]
[TD]Trailing[/TD]
[TD]Tied[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]After 1[/TD]
[TD]7-0-0[/TD]
[TD]1-5-0[/TD]
[TD]6-4-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]After 2[/TD]
[TD]8-1-0[/TD]
[TD]0-5-1[/TD]
[TD]6-3-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

They MUST start fast. basically once behind they are done. If you think back to the beginning of the year, when they were more consistently doing well, they came out all over the other teams D. Lots of chaos from the forecheck and some goals "down low" against limited structure. Once the game turns in to something structured, UNH can't score - see PP, setup in zone rarely score. If you want to play against UNH, weather the early surge, and turn it in to a structured game. NOTE: most Umile teams struggled against a structured game, UNH doesn't have a winning offensive strategy in these situations, also the classic playoff / NCAA problems with more talented teams against a structured opponent.

Now offense and playing from behind.

Typically playing from behind you need your "big players to make big plays"

Right now when they win it is scoring by committee, "4th line" scored all three against MC. This is really nice, except when you need goals against better, deeper competition. In those games your top 6 need to come to play. Who exactly is UNH's top six? I think I can get to 3/4 we could generally agree on, they are the top 4 goal scorers and top 4 forwards in points. Conmy, LeClerc, Devlin and Winters (the debatable one) these 4 generally stay in the top six with some mixing and matching of Lavins, Sardarian, Caferelli, Skrasttins and Ring (well and Siedem for some unknown reasons).
[TABLE="border: 1, cellpadding: 1, width: 500"]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]% goals for season[/TD]
[TD]% goals in Jan 1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Conmy[/TD]
[TD]16%[/TD]
[TD]15%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]LeClerc[/TD]
[TD]11%[/TD]
[TD]4%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Devlin[/TD]
[TD]9%[/TD]
[TD]15%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Winters[/TD]
[TD]11%[/TD]
[TD]7%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

So 9 games since Jan 1 and 27 goals so 3 gpg. For the year 76 goas and 24 games so 3.16 gpg. The offense has fallen off just a little, the problem is actually it is less consistent the standard deviation is 2 goals, so basically all over the place as likely to score 5 goals as 1.

If we dig deeper. LeClerc is in a serious goal draught. First 15 games 7 goals, so one every other game. Last 9 games, 1 goal. I think his shot shows it, on a PP against MC had a really nice setup for a one timer that must have been 3 feet off net. Could be some injury or probably he knows he is in a draught and is in his own head. Somebody feed him 50-100 one timers after practice to help him find his lost shot. The other is Winters, who seems to be feast or famine, scoring goals or not even dressed. The first 15 games 6 goals, last 9 just 2.

When you start overly depending on the bottom 6 for goals you generally get less consistent scoring.

Interesting post correct about the LeClerc drought sometimes as of late I have wondered about his general compete level...

We were sitting in front of UNH players at BU (those who weren't playing obviously) and while the game was deadlocked they were saying that they needed "to get the first one"...

While UML is down this season they are the kings of the 'structured' game and have used that to wear down teams over the years esp UNH. At least that is how I've seen it.

The scary thing? I guess is that over time this season seems the offense has become a bit disjointed and the creativity we saw has been lost..maybe leading to a player like LeClerc to be stymied. But then they go and rattle off 4 to 5 goals so there's that. (Against teams like Sacred Heart)

Nice to see the secondary scoring but not sure that carries a team deep.

 

[JB]

Nice to see the secondary scoring but not sure that carries a team deep.

Secondary scoring is probably WHAT carries a team deep, and it needs to be secondary, right now it seems for UNH it is primary.

Those numbers also point out the BIG problem last weekend. No Conmy and LeClerc "off" that is 27% of your pre January goal scoring that is gone, ouch. Way to go "4th line" stepping up and helping to put a bad night against BU in the past.

Interesting post correct about the LeClerc drought sometimes as of late I have wondered about his general compete level...

I am guessing it is all related. His shot is off and he is pressing, not getting the reward and the compete level is falling off because of it. Paradoxically probably the way out is to ignore the scoring, ignore the shot, ratchet up the compete level and the goals will come naturally. The problem with his shot is most likely between his ears (unless he has some sort of nagging injury, in which case stop asking him to shoot so much).

The scary thing? I guess is that over time this season seems the offense has become a bit disjointed and the creativity we saw has been lost..maybe leading to a player like LeClerc to be stymied. But then they go and rattle off 4 to 5 goals so there's that. (Against teams like Sacred Heart)

Again a guess. They know that the offense is up and down. So on a night where they start scoring and get a lead, they all loosen up and the puck goes in the net.

It also helps that teams playing from behind need to loosen up the structure that stymies UNH.

I think UNH needs to find a way to get back into a crazy aggressive forecheck early in the game. From memory that is what was generating goals early in games. Probably teams have seen that and adjusted how they handle it, so it is time of UNH to adjust to the counter measures. (NOTE: not watching film so I don't know this, just a supposition)

 

[Darius]

Those numbers also point out the BIG problem last weekend. No Conmy and LeClerc "off" that is 27% of your pre January goal scoring that is gone, ouch. Way to go "4th line" stepping up and helping to put a bad night against BU in the past.

I am guessing it is all related. His shot is off and he is pressing, not getting the reward and the compete level is falling off because of it. Paradoxically probably the way out is to ignore the scoring, ignore the shot, ratchet up the compete level and the goals will come naturally. The problem with his shot is most likely between his ears (unless he has some sort of nagging injury, in which case stop asking him to shoot so much).

Other teams likely figured out that neutralizing “Oh no it’s” LeClerc neutralizes UNH. Especially with Conmey out.

 

[JB]

Other teams likely figured out that neutralizing “Oh no it’s” LeClerc neutralizes UNH. Especially with Conmey out.

Maybe. He has had some good looks, particularly on the PP and his shot is nowhere near the net.

 

[Darius]

Man, USCHO needs to beef up the server running the forum.

 

[Darius]

Maybe. He has had some good looks, particularly on the PP and his shot is nowhere near the net.

Yeah. It all fits together. He needs to step up his game and having some more help would be good too. I keep reminding myself that we are improved from recent years. Just having a player whose game is good enough to be discussing is nice.

 

[Aerman]

Maybe if still in his prime Ken Dryden is available.

This really made me laugh Darius, as I very nearly posted the same sentiment … with the same goalie! lol

 

[mookie1995]

LOL ... y'know Felgie, the whole gambling thing has become SO ubiquitous in recent years, one has to feel a certain amount of sympathy for the small-time Fitzy's and Sully's at The Heights, whose side hustle as small-time bookies has all but collapsed with the legalization of sports betting in most nearby jurisdictions these days. No doubt, that gives BC big wigs like Father Leahy and his second-in-command Kevin Shea (ironically, most notable for his own HEA officiating side hustle) one less headache to deal with, but we've lost some of the old fun we used to enjoy on here with the overriding fascination the folks on The Heights used to show for their gaming exploits.

Thanks for being info up Shea. Reminder mookie of the referee Fitzy. Hilarious guy to follow out there. He was cool before gravelarse was cool

 

[Snively65]

Maybe. He has had some good looks, particularly on the PP and his shot is nowhere near the net.

LeClerc has improved his +/- from -13 last year to +6 so far this season, and at this stage of his career he already has more points (39) than one of our past better scorers known affectionately as “Mr High and Wide” Stevie Moses, 2008/09-2011/12, 47 G + 51 A for 98 points, +17, but only 11 G + 26 A for 37 points, +11 after his second season. If Stevie had been able to get even half of his “nowhere near the net” shots on net, he could have been one of our best scorers all time.

 

[Chuck Murray]

LeClerc has improved his +/- from -13 last year to +6 so far this season, and at this stage of his career he already has more points (39) than one of our past better scorers known affectionately as “Mr High and Wide” Stevie Moses, 2008/09-2011/12, 47 G + 51 A for 98 points, +17, but only 11 G + 26 A for 37 points, +11 after his second season. If Stevie had been able to get even half of his “nowhere near the net” shots on net, he could have been one of our best scorers all time.

Steve Moses, one of the all-time "hot or cold" players in recent memory ... and it continued long after his UNH days, including a breakout season in the KHL that got him a $1 million contract with Nashville (for whom he never ended up playing). He's still playing, and it looks like he's having one of his signature periodic "hot" spells in the Czech Republic now, after almost watching the pilot light on his career fade out in the Swiss league two years back ...

Steve Moses (b.1989) Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com

Nashville Predators sign Steve Moses to one-year, $1 million contract - On the Forecheck

 

[Aerman]

LeClerc has improved his +/- from -13 last year to +6 so far this season, and at this stage of his career he already has more points (39) than one of our past better scorers known affectionately as “Mr High and Wide” Stevie Moses, 2008/09-2011/12, 47 G + 51 A for 98 points, +17, but only 11 G + 26 A for 37 points, +11 after his second season. If Stevie had been able to get even half of his “nowhere near the net” shots on net, he could have been one of our best scorers all time.

I don’t know Snives, your numbers don’t jive with Chuck’s link or this site. They both show more goals and points each year as a Cat. But I have the same memory of his shooting.

 

[d.gerry]

Man, USCHO needs to beef up the server running the forum.

It has been bad lately. I often wonder who “owns” USCHO and what a loss it would be if it were to go away.

 

[Snively65]

I don’t know Snives, your numbers don’t jive with Chuck’s link or this site. They both show more goals and points each year as a Cat. But I have the same memory of his shooting.

My summaries for Stevie Moses were from the data on Hockey DB, same as Chuck’s link, in which Stevie’s point total after his first two seasons (37) was considerably less than after he wrapped up his four years (98). Like you, I remember him using his speed and maneuverability to create lots of great scoring chances in which he commonly missed “high and wide.” And, I do not mean just missing the top shelf corners, but really high and wide, as in several feet.

 

[Robert Balin]

So UNHs new recruit 16 year old Ryan Grout is the 6th rated goalie for the 2025 NHL draft. He's been climbing steadily over the last 8 months. If they were smart they'd bring him in in 2025 as a true 18 year old. On another recruit Jack Sadowski he's tearing it up and will be more than ready to come in next year as a true 18 year old. Since he's their best foward recruit why wouldn't you?

 

[HockeyRef]

So UNHs new recruit 16 year old Ryan Grout is the 6th rated goalie for the 2025 NHL draft. He's been climbing steadily over the last 8 months. If they were smart they'd bring him in in 2025 as a true 18 year old. On another recruit Jack Sadowski he's tearing it up and will be more than ready to come in next year as a true 18 year old. Since he's their best foward recruit why wouldn't you?

On the goal tender Grout (has a nice ring to it) I'd think they'd have no choice but to bring him in ..on the other would think so as well?
I think he's playing a game near me soon (Sadowski) might check it out.

Another piece of that puzzle is how things will work IF UNH makes a coaching change but thats another topic in itself!

 

[d.gerry]

The calm before the storm… BC 5 UNH 1.

I just don’t see a realistic path to victory for the ‘Cats tomorrow night. Their only hope is Helsten plays out of his mind, and possibly steals a win, or more likely a tie (then loss in OT). BC just has too much depth.

 

[Aerman]

My summaries for Stevie Moses were from the data on Hockey DB, same as Chuck’s link, in which Stevie’s point total after his first two seasons (37) was considerably less than after he wrapped up his four years (98). Like you, I remember him using his speed and maneuverability to create lots of great scoring chances in which he commonly missed “high and wide.” And, I do not mean just missing the top shelf corners, but really high and wide, as in several feet.

Sorry Snives, I must have misunderstood your first post. And hot or cold, that boy could fly!

 

[Ferrrao1994]

The calm before the storm… BC 5 UNH 1.

I just don’t see a realistic path to victory for the ‘Cats tomorrow night. Their only hope is Helsten plays out of his mind, and possibly steals a win, or more likely a tie (then loss in OT). BC just has too much depth.

Totally agree, it would take BC laying a dud for us to have any chance. It is hockey so anything can happen.