Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

[J.D.]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Those brackets do not look all that fair to me. I don't know what to switch but these do not appear balanced in terms of quality.

Did you even look at the PWR?

 

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Two questions on RPI: What's the actual difference in RPI between Rensselaer and Colorado College (obviously, less than 0.0001)?
What are the chances of Mankato becoming a TUC again with an RPI of 0.4982 and their season over? Since they played Denver 6 times this season, would DU (instead of one of the other six possible teams) winning the F5 improve their RPI?

*grumble* I got Mankato to .5001 but don't have the exact scenario because we lost power while I was posting. I know that Denver has to win the WCHA and St. Lawrence has to win the ECAC.

CC	0.523430
RPI	0.523356

 

[uniondutch21]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Has Union locked up a bid? If they win tonight, then lost twice would they still be in it?

 

[burgie12]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

*grumble* I got Mankato to .5001 but don't have the exact scenario because we lost power while I was posting. I know that Denver has to win the WCHA and St. Lawrence has to win the ECAC.

CC	0.523430
RPI	0.523356

Well, we'd rather see SLU not win the ECAC tournament than see Mankato get back to a TUC, soooo... Thank you, Priceless.

 

[manurespreader]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Did you even look at the PWR?

Of course, but you have three ECAC teams and two are in the same bracket? You have three CCHA teams and two are in the same bracket? You have three Hockey East teams and two are in the same bracket? It doesn't make good sense just from a common sense perspective.

 

[goblue78]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

You seem to have a theory of brackets that is not articulated anywhere. Under what principle (beyond the "no first round matchup" rule) is it thought desirable to manurespread conferences across regions?

 

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Has Union locked up a bid? If they win tonight, then lost twice would they still be in it?

A quick look can only get them down to T10. It looks like, win or lose tonight, they are in.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Of course, but you have three ECAC teams and two are in the same bracket? You have three CCHA teams and two are in the same bracket? You have three Hockey East teams and two are in the same bracket? It doesn't make good sense just from a common sense perspective.

Logic and the NCAA rarely go hand in hand.

 

[manurespreader]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

You seem to have a theory of brackets that is not articulated anywhere. Under what principle (beyond the "no first round matchup" rule) is it thought desirable to manurespread teams across regions?

Well as a mid west fan, I'd really prefer not to go see a Miami and UM rematch almost immediately. Let them go outside of the league and compete. Same for Union and Yale, I've seen that game, give me something else to watch. Certainly it's not in line necessarily with the pwr. But the ncaa seems to move team based simply on whims at times anyway. If I'm UNH I'd really prefer not to have to see BC again for a while and if I was Merrimack I'd be ****ed because it looks like a much tougher road than say Union gets.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Well as a mid west fan, I'd really prefer not to go see a Miami and UM rematch almost immediately. Let them go outside of the league and compete. Same for Union and Yale, I've seen that game, give me something else to watch. Certainly it's not in line necessarily with the pwr. But the ncaa seems to move team based simply on whims at times anyway. If I'm UNH I'd really prefer not to have to see BC again for a while and if I was Merrimack I'd be ****ed because it looks like a much tougher road than say Union gets.

The NCAA cares about bracket integrity and attendance (and not necessarily in that order) not about what fans or coaches think. The committee also doesn't say "Team X is ranked here, but they don't really deserve that so we'll reseed them." The committee goes by Pairwise. Be glad it's a transparent process, unlike the smoky room we're going to see tonight when the bouncyball brackets are announced.

 

[manurespreader]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

The NCAA cares about bracket integrity and attendance (and not necessarily in that order) not about what fans or coaches think. The committee also doesn't say "Team X is ranked here, but they don't really deserve that so we'll reseed them." The committee goes by Pairwise. Be glad it's a transparent process, unlike the smoky room we're going to see tonight when the bouncyball brackets are announced.

Sure and I'm all for that but... and you are certainly right it beats the roundball.

 

[RockTheWhit]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Priceless-Much thanks on your hard work here. Very interesting stuff to try to keep track of this time of year. Could you tell me if there are scenarios that get UNH out of the tournament, and what results UNH fans should be rooting for tonight and beyond? Thanks again.

 

[J.D.]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Of course, but you have three ECAC teams and two are in the same bracket? You have three CCHA teams and two are in the same bracket? You have three Hockey East teams and two are in the same bracket? It doesn't make good sense just from a common sense perspective.

The reason I have two ECAC teams together is because of bracket integrity...1. Yale vs. 8. Union

The reason I have two CCHA teams together is because of...bracket integrity. 4. Michigan vs. 5. Miami

The reason I have two HE teams together is because UNH has to be in Manchester as the host. Placing #1 seeds closest to home, BC goes to Manchester as well.

In all cases, they make sense attendance wise as well.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Priceless-Much thanks on your hard work here. Very interesting stuff to try to keep track of this time of year. Could you tell me if there are scenarios that get UNH out of the tournament, and what results UNH fans should be rooting for tonight and beyond? Thanks again.

I get them out with BU winning Hockey East, Ferris winning the CCHA, Dartmouth winning the ECAC and CC winning the WCHA. That puts them at 14, but the cut line would be 13 because the AHA Champ, Ferris (16) and CC (15) would take autobids.

UNH should root for Western, Harvard and Wisconsin tonight and take care of BU on Friday.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

I think:

1) Yale can clinch #1 by losing tonight.
2) BC can only catch North Dakota if UND loses Friday and they win Hockey East.
3) Yale will fall to #2 or #3 if they lose twice in AC. For who is #1, see above.
4) Yale, North Dakota and BC have locked up #1 seeds.
5) The final #1 will be Michigan, Miami, Denver, UMD, Union or Merrimack.
6) Yale, North Dakota, BC, Michigan, Miami, Denver, UMD, Union, Merrimack and Notre Dame have clinched.

Edit:

7) Colgate, St Lawrence, Harvard, Canisius, Holy Cross and Connecticut cannot be TUC even if they win out.
8) Northeastern can only be a TUC by winning out.
9) Lake Superior can only be a TUC with two more wins.
10) Mankato has a slight chance of becoming a TUC.
11) Colgate, St Lawrence, Harvard, Quinnipiac, Cornell, UAA, Ferris State, Air Force, RIT, Holy Cross, Canisius and Connecticut are now playing for an autobid.
12) Wisconsin can still get an at-large bid if they lose in the WCHA final.

 

[darker98]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Priceless, I cannot believe all the work you put into this. If we ever cross paths I owe you a lot of beer/drinks.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

If Wisconsin wins:

1	Yale (EC)	29	0.5758
2	North Dak (WC)	28	0.5832
3	Boston Coll (HE)27	0.5781
4	Michigan (CC)	25	0.5575
5	Miami (CC)	25	0.5562
6	Denver U (WC)	23	0.5569
7	MinnDuluth (WC)	23	0.5536
8	Merrimack (HE)	23	0.5525
9	Union (EC)	21	0.5529*
10	Notre Dame (CC)20	0.5494
11	New Hamp (HE)	18	0.5472
12	West Mich (CC)	18	0.5326
13	NE-Omaha (WC)	16	0.5325*
14	Dartmouth (EC)	16	0.5308
15	RPI (EC)	16	0.5237*
---
16	Boston U (HE)	14	0.5282*
17	CO College (WC)	12	0.5196*
18	Maine (HE)	12	0.5244*
19	Minnesota (WC)	11	0.5193*
20	Wisconsin (WC)	10	0.5276
21	Anchorage  (WC) 9	0.5167
22	St Cloud (WC)	8	0.5110*
23	Fairbanks (CC)	6	0.5086*
24	RIT (AH)	5	0.5066
25	Cornell (EC)	5	0.5062
26	Ferris St (CC)	4	0.5055*
27	Bemidji St (WC)	4	0.5046
28	Princeton (EC)	4	0.5113*
29	Air Force (AH)	3	0.5056
30	Quinnipiac (EC)	0	0.5033*

Bracketology

Bridgeport	Manchester	St Louis	Green Bay
Yale		Boston Coll	Michigan	North Dakota
Merrimack	Denver		Miami		MinnDuluth
W Michigan	UNH		Union		Notre Dame
AHA Champ	Dartmouth	UNO		RPI

TUC line

Bemidji State	0.5046
Quinnipiac	0.5033*
---
NorthEastern	0.4994
Robert Morris	0.4989*
MSU-Mankato	0.4980*

If CC wins

1	Yale (EC)	29	0.5760
2	North Dak (WC)	28	0.5833
3	Boston Coll (HE)27	0.5780
4	Michigan (CC)	25	0.5575
5	Miami (CC)	25	0.5562
6	Denver U (WC)	23	0.5573
7	MinnDuluth (WC)	23	0.5533
8	Merrimack (HE)	23	0.5524
9	Union (EC)	21	0.5530*
10	Notre Dame (CC)20	0.5493
11	New Hamp (HE)	18	0.5471
12	Western (CC)	18	0.5325
13	NE-Omaha (WC)	16	0.5325*
14	CO College (WC)	16	0.5259
15	Dartmouth (EC)	15	0.5309
---
16	RPI (EC)	15	0.5240*
17	Boston U (HE)	13	0.5280*
18	Maine (HE)	12	0.5243*
19	Minnesota (WC)	11	0.5189*
20	Anchorage  (WC)10	0.5172
21	St Cloud (WC)	8	0.5110*
22	Fairbanks (CC)	7	0.5089*
23	Wisconsin (WC)	6	0.5213*
24	RIT (AH)	5	0.5066
25	Cornell (EC)	5	0.5062
26	Ferris St (CC)	4	0.5055*
27	Bemidji St (WC)	4	0.5046
28	Princeton (EC)	4	0.5113*
29	Air Force (AH)	3	0.5057
30	Quinnipiac (EC)	1	0.5033*

Bracketology:

[B]Bridgeport	Manchester	St Louis	Green Bay[/B]
Yale		Boston Coll	Michigan	North Dakota
Merrimack	Denver		Miami		MinnDuluth
W Michigan	UNH		Union		Notre Dame
AHA Champ	CC		UNO		Dartmouth

TUC line:

Bemidji State	0.5046
Quinnipiac	0.5033*
---
NorthEastern	0.4993
Robert Morris	0.4989*
MSU-Mankato	0.4984*

 

[Eaglefan06]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Yes.

Quick answer: Have UND lose Friday night and BC win Hockey East.

Edit: BC can get the overall #1 if:
BC wins the Hockey East championship;
Colgate beats Union, then beats Yale in AC;
North Dakota loses Friday.

They need a perfect storm.

Step 1 of this storm: Colgate defeats Union - COMPLETE

 

[UnionHockeyManiac]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

A quick look can only get them down to T10. It looks like, win or lose tonight, they are in.

6) Yale, North Dakota, BC, Michigan, Miami, Denver, UMD, Union, Merrimack and Notre Dame have clinched.

This is the only thing keeping me going right now. I still feel like I just got the wind knocked out of me with Union's loss tonight though. It's ****ing devastating.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

BU isn't dead yet.

CC loses to Wisconsin + Dartmouth loses 1 game in AC + WMU finishes 4th in CCHA + cut line remains 15 = BU invite