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Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

  • Thread starter Thread starter Priceless
  • Start date Start date
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

This scenario works for Maine as well. The key for Maine is Northeastern beating BC so that Northeastern becomes a TUC.

Atlantic Hockey
Semifinal #2: Holy Cross defeats Air Force
Semifinal #1: RIT defeats Connecticut
Championship game: RIT defeats Holy Cross
CCHA
Semifinal #2: Notre Dame defeats Miami
Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Western Michigan
Championship game: Notre Dame defeats Michigan
Consolation game: Miami defeats Western Michigan
ECAC
Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Dartmouth
Semifinal #1: Yale defeats Colgate
Championship game: Yale defeats Cornell
Consolation game: Colgate defeats Dartmouth
Hockey East
Semifinal #2: New Hampshire defeats Merrimack
Semifinal #1: Northeastern defeats Boston College
Championship game: New Hampshire defeats Northeastern
WCHA
Play-in #2: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Bemidji State
Play-in #1: Alaska-Anchorage defeats Colorado College
Semifinal #2: Denver defeats Minnesota-Duluth
Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Alaska-Anchorage
Championship game: Denver defeats North Dakota
 
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Eaglefan06 said:
Sweet, I found a way BC could become #1 overall even while losing in the HE Semis.

These results:


Gives us BC at 1, Yale at 2, UND at 3 and Merrimack at 4.

I love playing around with this stuff every year!
Click to expand...

That must mean that Cornell still can fall out as a TUC with 2 losses in the ECAC championships.
 
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Priceless said:
If favorites win out:

Code: 
1	Yale (EC)	29	0.5789
2	North Dak (WC)	28	0.5873
3	Boston Coll (HE)27	0.5827
4	Michigan (CC)	26	0.5628
5	Miami (CC)	25	0.5552
6	Denver U (WC)	23	0.5565
7	Union (EC)	22	0.5525
8	MinnDuluth (WC)	22	0.5515
9	Merrimack (HE)	22	0.5483
10	Notre Dame (CC	20	0.5489
11	New Hamp (HE)	18	0.5469
12	Dartmouth (EC)	18	0.5363
13	CO College (WC)	16	0.5264
14	NE-Omaha (WC)	15	0.5324
15	Western (CC)	15	0.5262
---
16	RPI (EC)	15	0.5238
Click to expand...

This is not what my pairwise predictor shows if the favorites win out.
 
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Has anyone found a way to get Union out? I think 9 teams are in, and it will take weird events to get Notre Dame and UNH out. Has anyone been able to get UAA in without winning the WCHA?

So we essentially have 7 teams for 4 spots.

Teams playing that are still alive for at-large bids: Western Michigan, Dartmouth, CC.
Teams not playing that are alive for at-large bids: UNO, RPI, BU, Maine
 
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Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

burgie12 said:
Yes.

UNH ends 14th, with BSU, RIT, and NU all taking away at-large bids. FWIW, I get the same result (with regards to UNH's placement, anyways) even if CC doesn't advance past UAA, let alone beat NoDak. This is just one example of multiple similar iterations.
Click to expand...

There are a bunch of ways to get UNH out but from what I can find all are tied to:
1) UNH not winning in the semi's
and
2) Cornell going 0-2 and must include a loss to Colgate in the Consolation game
and
3) BSU, CC or AA winning the WCHA
and
4) Northeastern winning hockey east
and
5) Western Michigan defeating Michigan

UNH not winning is pretty obvious

The Cornell piece is easy UNH is 1-0 vs Cornell. If Cornell stays a TUC that keeps UNH in. Only way for Cornell to fall out of TUC is to go 0-2 including a loss to Colgate even 0-2 with a loss to Yale keeps them in TUC Status.

The next two are easy too. To bump UNH you need CC to jump UNH (only happens with CC winning WCHA) and 2 auto's qualifiers. Also it works with 3 auto qualifiers. Basically you need 3 from outside the current 16 (or 15 + Atlantic Champ) to get in.

The Western piece I am still playing with. It appears Western beating Michigan flips to UNH-WM comparison. However I found at least a couple cases where that exact comparison didn't flip but UNH had another flip that allowed Western to get past UNH.
 
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Eaglefan06 said:
Yep. Pretty **** sketchy. Colorado and Virginia Tech got screwed in favor of VCU and UAB.
Click to expand...

Colorado had the 325th ranked non-conference schedule. So no love lost for them.

I think Harvard had a better resume than Colorado, including a head to head win.
 
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Also, and on topic, is there anyway Dartmouth can lose to Cornell and still make the tournament? If so, I haven't found it yet.

Also, assuming the top 14 get in (so AHA and one other conference upset), is there anyway Dartmouth stays out if they beat Cornell? Every scenario I have lands them either 13th or 14th assuming a win over Cornell and a loss to Yale (haven't run it yet with them playing Colgate and losing...mainly cause they're probably boned at that point anyway).

So it seems like Dartmouth's season essentially comes down to Friday, barring an excess of wierd results.
 
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

unofan said:
Also, and on topic, is there anyway Dartmouth can lose to Cornell and still make the tournament? If so, I haven't found it yet.

Also, assuming the top 14 get in (so AHA and one other conference upset), is there anyway Dartmouth stays out if they beat Cornell? Every scenario I have lands them either 13th or 14th assuming a win over Cornell and a loss to Yale (haven't run it yet with them playing Colgate and losing...mainly cause they're probably boned at that point anyway).

So it seems like Dartmouth's season essentially comes down to Friday, barring an excess of wierd results.
Click to expand...

Have Dartmouth beat Yale for 3rd.

This scenario has Dartmouth winning and finishing 16 with cut line at 14.

Your Picks
Atlantic Hockey
Semifinal #2: Air Force defeats Holy Cross
Semifinal #1: RIT defeats Connecticut
Championship game: RIT defeats Air Force
CCHA
Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Notre Dame
Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Western Michigan
Championship game: Michigan defeats Miami
Consolation game: Western Michigan defeats Notre Dame
ECAC
Semifinal #2: Dartmouth defeats Cornell
Semifinal #1: Colgate defeats Yale
Championship game: Colgate defeats Dartmouth
Consolation game: Cornell defeats Yale
Hockey East
Semifinal #2: Merrimack defeats New Hampshire
Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Northeastern
Championship game: Boston College defeats Merrimack
WCHA
Play-in #2: Bemidji State defeats Minnesota-Duluth
Play-in #1: Colorado College defeats Alaska-Anchorage
Semifinal #2: Bemidji State defeats Denver
Semifinal #1: Colorado College defeats North Dakota
Championship game: Colorado College defeats Bemidji State

Edit:
This has cut line at 15, Dartmouth winning Friday and still finishing 16
Your Picks
Atlantic Hockey
Semifinal #2: Air Force defeats Holy Cross
Semifinal #1: RIT defeats Connecticut
Championship game: RIT defeats Air Force
CCHA
Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Notre Dame
Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Western Michigan
Championship game: Michigan defeats Miami
Consolation game: Western Michigan defeats Notre Dame
ECAC
Semifinal #2: Dartmouth defeats Cornell
Semifinal #1: Yale defeats Colgate
Championship game: Yale defeats Dartmouth
Consolation game: Cornell defeats Colgate
Hockey East
Semifinal #2: Merrimack defeats New Hampshire
Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Northeastern
Championship game: Boston College defeats Merrimack
WCHA
Play-in #2: Bemidji State defeats Minnesota-Duluth
Play-in #1: Colorado College defeats Alaska-Anchorage
Semifinal #2: Denver defeats Bemidji State
Semifinal #1: Colorado College defeats North Dakota
Championship game: Denver defeats Colorado College
 
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Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

I asked this question on the ecac pick em thread and have not received an answer. Is the ecac third place game allowed to end in a tie? The PW predictor has that option so what say the experts?
 
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

LTsatch said:
I asked this question on the ecac pick em thread and have not received an answer. Is the ecac third place game allowed to end in a tie? The PW predictor has that option so what say the experts?
Click to expand...

Yes, same for the CCHA third-place game. If it's tied at the end of regulation, they'll play a standard five-minute golden goal OT, and then the game will be over.
 
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Craig P. said:
Yes, same for the CCHA third-place game. If it's tied at the end of regulation, they'll play a standard five-minute golden goal OT, and then the game will be over.
Click to expand...

golden goal is a soccer term (and a really lame one, at that). Sudden Death is the preferred term, even if "sudden victory" is the official NCAA one.
 
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

unofan said:
golden goal is a soccer term (and a really lame one, at that). Sudden Death is the preferred term, even if "sudden victory" is the official NCAA one.
Click to expand...

I think golden goal is a better term, which is the reason I adopted it from soccer. Sudden death is rather morose and focuses on the defeat, rather than the victory.
 
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Sudden death works for me, because the game stops once the goal is scored, whereas in soccer, you keep going until the period(s) is/are over.
 
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Craig P. said:
Sudden death is rather morose and focuses on the defeat, rather than the victory.
Click to expand...

Yet it was the standard nomenclature for decades before the NCAA agreed with your premise and changed it to "sudden victory" for no reason other than to change the name.

The soccer version is simply weak, though still preferable to "sudden victory," I'll grant you that.

As an analogy, I think we should change the name of the goalkeeper in soccer to goalpreventer - as he doesn't try to keep the ball in the net, but prevent it from getting in there. "Handsman" would also be acceptable. :p
 
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

FlagDUDE08 said:
Sudden death works for me, because the game stops once the goal is scored, whereas in soccer, you keep going until the period(s) is/are over.
Click to expand...

That kind of soccer overtime isn't golden goal. They had a brief interlude where the thirty minute overtime before KFTM was golden goal (aka sudden death), but decided to can it because teams were playing too conservatively where conceding one goal would necessarily be the end of the match.
 
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Craig P. said:
That kind of soccer overtime isn't golden goal. They had a brief interlude where the thirty minute overtime before KFTM was golden goal (aka sudden death), but decided to can it because teams were playing too conservatively where conceding one goal would necessarily be the end of the match.
Click to expand...

I miss silver goal soccer :p:D:D

(Silver Goal = If you score in overtime, you play until the end of the half (in soccer, overtime is 2, 15 minute halves). It allows the team that got scored on to at least try to come back and tie before the end of the half (either first or second).)
 
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

<p>I posted my <a href="http://blog.siouxsports.com/2011/03/14/final-pwr-rankings-predictions/">Final PWR predictions</a> for UND yesterday, here's what I came up with for remaining PWR possibilities:</p>

<table>
<tr>
<th rowspan="2">Team</th>
<th rowspan="2">PWR</th>
<th colspan="2">Overall</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<th>Possible<br>
Final<br>
PWR</th>
<th>Likely (>1%)<br>
Final<br>
PWR</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Yale</td>
<td>1</td>
<td bgcolor="#CCFFCC">1 to 4</td>
<td bgcolor="#CCFFCC">1 to 3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>North Dakota</td>
<td>2</td>
<td bgcolor="#CCFFCC">1 to 3</td>
<td bgcolor="#CCFFCC">1 to 3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Boston College</td>
<td>3</td>
<td bgcolor="#CCFFCC">1 to 4</td>
<td bgcolor="#CCFFCC">1 to 4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Michigan</td>
<td>4</td>
<td bgcolor="#CCFFCC">2 to 11</td>
<td bgcolor="#CCFFCC">3 to 11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Miami</td>
<td>5</td>
<td bgcolor="#CCFFCC">3 to 11</td>
<td bgcolor="#CCFFCC">3 to 11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Denver</td>
<td>6</td>
<td bgcolor="#CCFFCC">4 to 11</td>
<td bgcolor="#CCFFCC">4 to 9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Minnesota-Duluth</td>
<td>7</td>
<td bgcolor="#CCFFCC">4 to 11</td>
<td bgcolor="#CCFFCC">4 to 11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Merrimack</td>
<td>8</td>
<td bgcolor="#CCFFCC">4 to 11</td>
<td bgcolor="#CCFFCC">4 to 11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Union</td>
<td>9</td>
<td bgcolor="#CCFFCC">5 to 11</td>
<td bgcolor="#CCFFCC">6 to 10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Notre Dame</td>
<td>10</td>
<td bgcolor="#eeeeee">4 to 15</td>
<td bgcolor="#eeeeee">4 to 14</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>New Hampshire</td>
<td>11</td>
<td bgcolor="#eeeeee">5 to 15</td>
<td bgcolor="#eeeeee">5 to 14</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Western Michigan</td>
<td>12</td>
<td bgcolor="#eeeeee">10 to 19</td>
<td bgcolor="#eeeeee">10 to 19</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nebraska-Omaha</td>
<td>13</td>
<td bgcolor="#eeeeee">12 to 16</td>
<td bgcolor="#eeeeee">12 to 16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Colorado College</td>
<td>14</td>
<td bgcolor="#eeeeee">10 to 19</td>
<td bgcolor="#eeeeee">10 to 18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dartmouth</td>
<td>15</td>
<td bgcolor="#eeeeee">10 to 22</td>
<td bgcolor="#eeeeee">11 to 21</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Rensselaer</td>
<td>16</td>
<td bgcolor="#eeeeee">10 to 19</td>
<td bgcolor="#eeeeee">11 to 16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Boston University</td>
<td>17</td>
<td bgcolor="#eeeeee">13 to 19</td>
<td bgcolor="#eeeeee">14 to 18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Maine</td>
<td>18</td>
<td bgcolor="#eeeeee">13 to 20</td>
<td bgcolor="#eeeeee">15 to 19</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Minnesota</td>
<td>19</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffcccc">17 to 21</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffcccc">18 to 20</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Alaska Anchorage</td>
<td>20</td>
<td bgcolor="#eeeeee">12 to 23</td>
<td bgcolor="#eeeeee">12 to 22</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>St. Cloud State</td>
<td>21</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffcccc">19 to 26</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffcccc">20 to 24</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Alaska</td>
<td>22</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffcccc">22 to 28</td>
<td bgcolor="#ffcccc">22 to 26</td>
</tr>
</table>
<p>It would definitely be interesting to hear if anyone has found anything outside those ranges.</p>
 
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