Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

JimDahl · Mar 9, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

BC/HE said:
I believe there is another way thay can fall from #1 overall. If they lose to Colgate in the semifinals, BC would turn the COP in their favor. BC winning Hockey East may boost them enough to take over the RPI as well. Also should Cornell lose twice to Quinippiac this weekend they could fall out as a TUC and a single loss to a TUC may lose that comparison to BC as well.

Even moreso, I think Union can flip the comparison with Yale this weekend. COP is easy, RPI takes a little work. Here's a sample that gives Union a .0001 lead (that could clearly grow). I had to transcribe the results into TBRW format manually, so corrections welcome.

Priceless · Mar 9, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

BC/HE said:
I believe there is another way thay can fall from #1 overall. If they lose to Colgate in the semifinals, BC would turn the COP in their favor. BC winning Hockey East may boost them enough to take over the RPI as well. Also should Cornell lose twice to Quinippiac this weekend they could fall out as a TUC and a single loss to a TUC may lose that comparison to BC as well.

I'll admit that having the #12 seed in the ECAC Championship by winning 2 @Union and knocking off Yale in AC is not one of the scenarios I ran

Continuing that track, NoDak can become #1 overall if that happens but BC fails to win the HEA tournament.

JimDahl said:
Even moreso, I think Union can flip the comparison with Yale this weekend. COP is easy, RPI takes a little work. Here's a sample that gives Union a .0001 lead (that could clearly grow). I had to transcribe the results into TBRW format manually, so corrections welcome.

Union has to win the ECAC championship to remain ahead of Yale on RPI. If they lose either game they fall back behind.
Series that are split 1-1 need to have a third game. I'm dying to know if Tech can pull off the miracle in game 3 in Grand Forks.

JimDahl · Mar 9, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Priceless said:
Union has to win the ECAC championship to remain ahead of Yale on RPI. If they lose either game they fall back behind.
Series that are split 1-1 need to have a third game. I'm dying to know if Tech can pull off the miracle in game 3 in Grand Forks.

Yeah, I said in the post on SiouxSports but failed to repeat here that I had run it out as far as this weekend's scheduled games only -- adding in the game 3s and next weekend's games only increases the complexity. My real point was to convey how many tough to predict edge cases there are. Cumulative total, it seems to only be about .1% of cases in which Yale gets swept that they could fall from #1 overall. But that something that intuitively seems so impossible can happen is still somewhat fascinating, IMHO.

Priceless · Mar 9, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

JimDahl said:
Yeah, I said in the post on SiouxSports but failed to repeat here that I had run it out as far as this weekend's scheduled games only -- adding in the game 3s and next weekend's games only increases the complexity. My real point was to convey how many tough to predict edge cases there are. Cumulative total, it seems to only be about .1% of cases in which Yale gets swept that they could fall from #1 overall. But that something that intuitively seems so impossible can happen is still somewhat fascinating, IMHO.

Indeed. I only found the New Hampshire to #4 scenario by accident.

Priceless · Mar 10, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Northeastern upsets BU in the only game of the night.

The field and seeding remain the same. The first team out is now Maine, followed by RPI.

The new TUC line

Code:

Quinnipiac	0.5086
RIT	        0.5039
MSU-Mankato	0.5023
Air Force	0.5023
Cornell	        0.5022
---
Robert Morris	0.4988*
NorthEastern	0.4978
Bemidji State	0.4972
Niagara	        0.4963*
Lake Superior	0.4943

Priceless · Mar 11, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Western Michigan opened the door but Maine, Minnesota and SCSU all failed to walk through it. Thanks to Bemidji's upset, they are a TUC again so North Dakota moves up; UNO moves down.

Code:

1	Yale (EC)	30	0.5732
2	North Dak (WC)	29	0.5838
3	Boston Coll (HE)28	0.5767
4	Michigan (CC)	26	0.5581
5	Denver U (WC)	26	0.5551
6	Miami (CC)	25	0.5535
7	Union (EC)	23	0.5636
8	Merrimack (HE)	23	0.5489
9	MinnDuluth (WC)	22	0.5515
10	Notre Dame (CC) 20	0.5522
11	New Hamp (HE)	19	0.5452
12	NE-Omaha (WC)	19	0.5383
13	Dartmouth (EC)	18	0.5329
14	Boston U (HE)	16	0.5319
15	RPI (EC)	16	0.5230
---
16	Maine (HE)	14	0.5279
17	Minnesota (WC)	14	0.5239

Bracketology:

Code:

[B]Bridgeport	Manchester	St Louis	Green Bay[/B]
Yale		Boston Coll	Michigan	North Dakota
Merrimack	Union		Denver		Miami
UNO		UNH		Notre Dame	MinnDuluth
AHA Champ	Dartmouth	Boston U	RPI

TUC line:

Code:

Cornell	        0.5063
RIT	        0.5050
Quinnipiac	0.5040
Air Force	0.5035
Bemidji State	0.5016
MSU-Mankato	0.5003
Robert Morris	0.4984*
Niagara	        0.4961*
NorthEastern	0.4950

J.D. · Mar 12, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

I agree with Moy's latest brackets except that I would put the UND/UNO/Miami cluster in St. Louis, not Green Bay. Is that crazy? You'd then love to get UMD to Green Bay, but I wasn't able to come up with a reasonable solution there.

Ralph Baer · Mar 12, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Priceless said:
Western Michigan opened the door but Maine, Minnesota and SCSU all failed to walk through it. Thanks to Bemidji's upset, they are a TUC again so North Dakota moves up; UNO moves down.

and RPI moves back in, at least for a day.

Priceless · Mar 12, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

My concussion rears its ugly head. The pairwise I posted last night is incorrect; I entered the Dartmouth-Harvard score wrong. As luck would have it, the field is unchanged. The seeding now would go #13 BU, #14 Dartmouth. Because of the BC/BU matchup, pairings do not change.

Outside the field, there are 4 teams T16: #16 Wisconsin, #17 Maine, #18 Minnesota, #19 Western Michigan.

I'll try to do better tonight, but make no promises. It seems a world-class percussionist has taken up residence in my head.

Priceless · Mar 12, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Updated pairwise:

Code:

1	Yale (EC)	29	0.5742
2	North Dak (WC)	28	0.5835
3	Boston Coll (HE)27	0.5778
4	Michigan (CC)	25	0.5582
5	Miami (CC)	25	0.5563
6	Merrimack (HE)	23	0.5524
7	Denver U (WC)	23	0.5573
8	Union (EC)	22	0.5579
9	MinnDuluth (WC)	22	0.5538
10	Notre Dame (CC)	20	0.5473
11	New Hamp (HE)	18	0.5470
12	NE-Omaha (WC)	16	0.5331
13	West Mich (CC)	16	0.5278
14	CO College (WC)	16	0.5234
15	Dartmouth (EC)	15	0.5276
16	RPI (EC)	15	0.5234

Bracketology

Code:

[B]Bridgeport	Manchester	St Louis		Green Bay[/B]
Yale		Boston Coll	Michigan		North Dakota
Union		Denver		Merrimack		Miami
UNO		UNH		Notre Dame		MinnDuluth
AHA Champ	Dartmouth	Col Coll		W Michigan

The TUC line:

Code:

Quinnipiac	0.5069
RIT	        0.5065
Air Force	0.5056
Bemidji State	0.5052
Cornell	        0.5021
---
Robert Morris	0.4985*
MSU-Mankato	0.4983*
Lake Superior	0.4973
Niagara	        0.4968*
NorthEastern	0.4952

Eaglefan06 · Mar 12, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

With Bemidji's sweep over UNO, did they lock themselves in as a TUC? If how can BC pass North Dakota?

Priceless · Mar 12, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Eaglefan06 said:
With Bemidji's sweep over UNO, did they lock themselves in as a TUC? If how can BC pass North Dakota?

Yes.

Quick answer: Have UND lose Friday night and BC win Hockey East.

Edit: BC can get the overall #1 if:
BC wins the Hockey East championship;
Colgate beats Union, then beats Yale in AC;
North Dakota loses Friday.

They need a perfect storm.

frogtown_pond · Mar 13, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Eaglefan06 said:
With Bemidji's sweep over UNO, did they lock themselves in as a TUC? If how can BC pass North Dakota?

Priceless,

I love the work you do.

I have a question? How do teams such as Alaska, St. Cloud and even Bemidji remain as TUC when they can't be actually under consideration for the Tourney
with a less than .500 winning pct. I realize Bemidji can get to .500 with 3 wins (which would automatically get them in).

Priceless · Mar 13, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

frogtown_pond said:
Priceless,

I love the work you do.

I have a question? How do teams such as Alaska, St. Cloud and even Bemidji remain as TUC when they can't be actually under consideration for the Tourney
with a less than .500 winning pct. I realize Bemidji can get to .500 with 3 wins (which would automatically get them in).

The NCAA deems it so. They changed the formula to include teams with an RPI .5000 or greater. Logic and the NCAA rarely go hand in hand.

J.D. · Mar 13, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Bridgeport:

1. Yale
2. Union
3. Notre Dame
4. RIT

Manchester:

1. BC
2. Denver
3. UNH
4. Dartmouth

Green Bay:

1. North Dakota
2. Merrimack
3. Minnesota-Duluth
4. Western Michigan

St. Louis

1. Michigan
2. Miami
3. Nebraska-Omaha
4. Colorado Colege

BC/HE · Mar 13, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Priceless said:
Yes.

Quick answer: Have UND lose Friday night and BC win Hockey East.

Edit: BC can get the overall #1 if:
BC wins the Hockey East championship;
Colgate beats Union, then beats Yale in AC;
North Dakota loses Friday.

They need a perfect storm.

If Quinippiac beats Cornell tonight, does Cornell fall out as a TUC? If so and Yale loses to a TUC next weekend BC could pass them in TUC and take the PWR comparison and thus pass Yale as well. It all depends if Cornell falls out as a TUC of course.
Also does Union still have a chance to overturn their comparison with Yale or did that disolve with the loss to Colgate?

manurespreader · Mar 13, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

J.D. said:
Bridgeport:

1. Yale
2. Union
3. Notre Dame
4. RIT

Manchester:

1. BC
2. Denver
3. UNH
4. Dartmouth

Green Bay:

1. North Dakota
2. Merrimack
3. Minnesota-Duluth
4. Western Michigan

St. Louis

1. Michigan
2. Miami
3. Nebraska-Omaha
4. Colorado Colege

Those brackets do not look all that fair to me. I don't know what to switch but these do not appear balanced in terms of quality.

Priceless · Mar 13, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

BC/HE said:
If Quinippiac beats Cornell tonight, does Cornell fall out as a TUC? If so and Yale loses to a TUC next weekend BC could pass them in TUC and take the PWR comparison and thus pass Yale as well. It all depends if Cornell falls out as a TUC of course.
Also does Union still have a chance to overturn their comparison with Yale or did that disolve with the loss to Colgate?

Yes. Their RPI would fall to .498 and they would be unable to climb back up. If Cornell wins, both will be TUC. The loss by Union precludes them from catching Yale's RPI if Yale loses tonight. Further, Union cannot flip the comparison via a H2H win because that could either come in the ECAC championship or the consolation. If the former, Yale will already have wrapped up the comparison by winning in the ECAC SF; if the latter Yale will already have won the comparison because Union lost in the ECAC SF.

Yale should forfeit tonight. I can't get them out of the #1 overall spot with a loss. On the other hand, if they were to advance and lose to Colgate, they could drop to #2 or #3 overall. If they were to lose to 2 TUC (instead of Colgate) they could also fall to #3. So the Bulldogs would be wise to go to the movies instead of the hockey rink tonight. Somehow, I don't think they will.

BC/HE · Mar 13, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Important to note who else will be helped and hurt if Cornell falls out as a TUC:

Helps:
Rensselaer 2 losses
Dartmouth loss and tie

Hurts:
Yale 2 wins
Union 2 wins
UNH 1 win

burgie12 · Mar 13, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Two questions on RPI: What's the actual difference in RPI between Rensselaer and Colorado College (obviously, less than 0.0001)?
What are the chances of Mankato becoming a TUC again with an RPI of 0.4982 and their season over? Since they played Denver 6 times this season, would DU (instead of one of the other six possible teams) winning the F5 improve their RPI?

Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

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