Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Priceless · Mar 6, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

There are three games today. All six teams are fighting to stay alive. The only game that features a team currently in the field is #14 RPI v Colgate. With a win, the Engineers keep their NCAA hopes alive; a loss drops them to 17th and ends their season. #26 Princeton is going to be a TUC, but with a win they improve to #24 and advance in the ECAC. Neither Northern Michigan nor Bowling Green will even be a TUC with a win today.

goblue78 · Mar 6, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

I think Brown now says it's too late for the PWR.

Priceless · Mar 6, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Here are the scripts for the Hockey East, WCHA and AHA playoffs.

Code:

20110311	Me	0	Mr	1	 NC
20110311	NE	0	BU	1	 NC
20110311	Vt	0	NH	1	 NC
20110311	MA	0	BC	1	 NC
20110312	Me	0	Mr	1	 NC
20110312	NE	0	BU	1	 NC
20110312	Vt	0	NH	1	 NC
20110312	MA	0	BC	1	 NC
20110318	Mr	0	BC	1	 nc
20110318	BU	0	NH	1	 nc
20110319	NH	0	BC	1	 nc
					
					
20110311	MT	0	ND	1	 NC
20110311	Mk	0	DU	1	 NC
20110311	BS	0	NO	1	 NC
20110311	SC	0	MD	1	 NC
20110311	AA	0	Mn	1	 NC
20110311	Wi	0	CC	1	 NC
20110312	MT	0	ND	1	 NC
20110312	Mk	0	DU	1	 NC
20110312	BS	0	NO	1	 NC
20110312	SC	0	MD	1	 NC
20110312	AA	0	Mn	1	 NC
20110312	Wi	0	CC	1	 NC
20110317	CC	0	NO	1	 nc
20110317	Mn	0	MD	1	 nc
20110318	NO	0	DU	1	 nc
20110318	MD	0	ND	1	 nc
20110319	DU	0	ND	1	 nc
					
					
					
20110311	SH	0	AF	1	 NC
20110311	Ca	0	HC	1	 NC
20110311	AI	0	RT	1	 NC
20110311	Mh	0	Ct	1	 nc
20110312	SH	0	AF	1	 NC
20110312	Ca	0	HC	1	 NC
20110312	AI	0	RT	1	 NC
20110312	Mh	0	Ct	1	 nc
20110318	Ct	0	AF	1	 nc
20110318	HC	0	RT	1	 nc
20110319	AF	0	RT	1	 nc

These are defaulted to
2-game series (when necessary)
Higher seed wins every game 1-0

To have the road/lower seeded team win, change the 0 to a 2 - remember to change subsequent games appropriately. Revised CCHA and ECAC scripts will be available tonight.

Priceless · Mar 6, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

And now the scripts for the ECAC and CCHA

Code:

20110311	Cg	0	Un	1	 NC
20110311	Qn	0	Cr	1	 NC
20110311	SL	0	Ya	1	 NC
20110311	Ha	0	Da	1	 NC
20110312	Cg	0	Un	1	 NC
20110312	Qn	0	Cr	1	 NC
20110312	SL	0	Ya	1	 NC
20110312	Ha	0	Da	1	 NC
20110318	Da	0	Ya	1	 nc
20110318	Cr	0	Un	1	 nc
20110319	Cr	0	Da	1	 nc
20110319	Ya	0	Un	1	 nc
					
20110311	BG	0	Mi	1	 NC
20110311	LS	0	Nt	1	 NC
20110311	Ak	0	Mm	1	 NC
20110311	FS	0	WM	1	 NC
20110312	BG	0	Mi	1	 NC
20110312	LS	0	Nt	1	 NC
20110312	Ak	0	Mm	1	 NC
20110312	FS	0	WM	1	 NC
20110318	WM	0	Mi	1	 nc
20110318	Mm	0	Nt	1	 nc
20110319	WM	0	Mm	1	 nc
20110319	Nt	0	Mi	1	 nc

Priceless · Mar 6, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

And the updated pairwise

Code:

1	Yale (EC)	29	0.5815
2	Boston Coll (HE)28	0.5758
3	North Dak (WC)	27	0.5839
4	Michigan (CC)	25	0.5578
5	Denver U (WC)	24	0.5535
6	Union (EC)	23	0.5627
7	NE-Omaha (WC)	23	0.5441
8	Merrimack (HE)	22	0.5454
9	Miami (CC)	21	0.5511
10	Notre Dame (CC) 20	0.5511
11	MinnDuluth (WC)	20	0.5491
12	New Hamp (HE)	17	0.5429
13	Dartmouth (EC)	16	0.5305
14	W Mich (CC)	15	0.5300
15	CO College (WC)	15	0.5245
---
16	Boston U (HE)	14	0.5336
17	RPI (EC)	14	0.5231

Bracketology:

Code:

[B]Bridgeport	Manchester	St Louis	Green Bay[/B]
Yale		Boston Coll	Michigan	North Dakota
Merrimack	Union		Denver		UNO
Minn-Duluth	UNH		Miami		Notre Dame
AHA Champ	Col Coll	Dartmouth	W Michigan

The TUC line

Code:

Quinnipiac	0.5087
RIT	        0.5039
MSU-Mankato	0.5024
Cornell	        0.5023
Air Force	0.5022
---
Robert Morris	0.4988*
Bemidji State	0.4973
Niagara	        0.4962*
Lake Superior	0.4943
Mich State	0.4935*
NorthEastern	0.4934

redwings8831 · Mar 6, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

I would switch Dartmouth and Colorado College.

Priceless · Mar 6, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

If the higher seeded team were to win every game

Code:

1	Yale (EC)	27	0.5807
2	Boston Coll (HE)26	0.5825
3	North Dak (WC)	25	0.5880
4	Michigan (CC)	24	0.5636
5	Union (EC)	22	0.5708
6	Miami (CC)	21	0.5555
7	Denver U (WC)	20	0.5557
8	Merrimack (HE)	20	0.5486
9	NE-Omaha (WC)	19	0.5458
10	Notre Dame (CC) 18	0.5538
11	MinnDuluth (WC) 18	0.5528
12	New Hamp (HE)	15	0.5467
13	Dartmouth (EC)	14	0.5356
14	Minnesota (WC)	14	0.5297
15	West Mich (CC)	13	0.5279
---
16	CO College (WC)	13	0.5252
17	Boston U (HE)	12	0.5349
18	RPI (EC)	11	0.5229
19	Maine (HE)	9	0.5243
20	St Cloud (WC)	7	0.5113
21	Fairbanks (CC)	7	0.5086
22	RIT (AH)	6	0.5132
23	Wisconsin (WC)	5	0.5182
24	Ferris St (CC)	4	0.5031
25	Princeton (EC)	3	0.5103
26	Anchorage  (WC)	3	0.5031
27	Air Force (AH)	2	0.5049
28	Cornell (EC)	0	0.5041

Bracketology is a little messed up, but I come up with

Code:

[B]Bridgeport	Manchester	St Louis	Green Bay[/B]
Yale		Boston Coll	Michigan	North Dakota
Merrimack	Union		Miami		Denver
UNO		UNH		MinnDuluth	Notre Dame
AHA Champ	W Michigan	Minnesota	Dartmouth

I predict UM would win the St. Louis regional.

It would be the first time since 2007 that we had #1 seeds from each of the four power conferences. It would be the first time since the field expanded to 16 teams that each conference had 2 members in the top 8.

J.D. · Mar 6, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

I came up with:

Bridgeport:

1. Yale
2. Merrimack
3. Notre Dame
4. RIT

Manchester:

1. BC
2. Denver
3. UNH
4. Dartmouth

Green Bay:

1. UND
2. Union
3. UMD
4. WMU

St. Louis:

1. Michigan
2. UNO
3. Miami
4. CC

Priceless · Mar 7, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

This week I plan to look at four groups:
TUC
The Win Out club
The bubble
Already in

The TUC picture is easiest:

Robert Morris, Michigan State, Niagara - done for the season, will not attain TUC status.

Northeastern - Needs to win series against BU and win once at HEA Championships.
Lake Superior - Needs to win series against Notre Dame and win one at CCHA Championships.
Bemidji State - Needs to win the series with UNO to regain TUC status.

Air Force - Sweep Sacred Heart this weekend; or win in 3 and win AHA SF.
MSU-Mankato - Needs one win at Denver to remain a TUC. If they are swept they are gone.
Cornell/Quinnipiac - If there is a sweep, the loser is out. If the series goes to three games, the winner will need to win one at ECAC Championships. If Cornell wins in three, Quinnipiac will be very close to the TUC line.
RIT - Will be a TUC with a sweep of AIC this weekend, or win in three plus a win in AHA SF.

Next we'll look at teams that have to win out to make the field of 16.

goblue78 · Mar 7, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

goblue78 said:
I think Brown now says it's too late for the PWR.

Oh... and now Princeton agrees with them.

unh1982 · Mar 7, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Great work , really......thanks

Priceless · Mar 7, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Must play their way in (This year's Michigan)

Anyone in the AHA.

CCHA: Bowling Green, Lake State, Ferris State
ECAC: Colgate, St. Lawrence, Harvard, Quinnipiac, Cornell
HEA: UMass, Vermont, Northeastern
WCHA: Michigan Tech, MSU-Mankato, Bemidji State, Alaska-Anchorage

Not in currently but can get in without winning conference tournament:

CCHA: Alaska
ECAC: RPI
HEA: Boston University, Maine
WCHA: Minnesota, Wisconsin, St Cloud

Much to my surprise, RPI is like the old man in Monty Python's search for the Holy Grail - not quite dead yet. With the perfect storm of upsets in the QF, RPI can actually get as high as 13 overall. I could not get them past UNH (which leads me to think UNH has clinched - more on that later). If Dartmouth, Western Michigan, Colorado College and Boston University lose quarterfinal series this weekend, RPI can get in. RPI can sneak in if Dartmouth and BU win their series, but need Western to lose to Ferris State and Colorado College to lose to Wisconsin. The Engineers then need both teams to lose before they secure autobids and knock RPI back out. If Western or CC win, RPI needs BU, Dartmouth and Maine to all lose their conference quarters. So this weekend RPI fans are cheering for Ferris, Wisconsin, Northeastern and Harvard. On the bright side, all four teams have red as a primary color (OK, so 2 are Crimson...close enough).

Next up, we look at teams that have locked up invitations.

Priceless · Mar 7, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

OK, just UMD for Ciskie. It would take a rash of upsets for them not to make it, so I'm going to consider them in. If it takes more than three unusual events to get in, for the purposes of my study, you're in. Just for future reference.

I'll probably have the list of in/not in tomorrow.

dxmnkd316 · Mar 7, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Nix that. See below.

Numbers · Mar 7, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Priceless,
Doesn't Western Michigan belong in the "Need to play their way in" club also?
It seems if they lose their QF to Ferris, they can easily be out.

Numbers · Mar 7, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

I hope I am not interfering dxmnkd. I am using the same source as Priceless. He may understand the programming behind the site. I don't, and the code has got to be long...

But, my numbers match his exactly. I had several problems along the way. I was entering in game scores, and sometimes got 1-1 ties instead of 1-0 scores.

And, remember that only ECAC and CCHA have 3rd place.

Also, are you entering AHA?

dxmnkd316 · Mar 7, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Code:

1  Yale			27	0.5807
2  Boston College	26	0.5830
3  North Dakota		25	0.5880
4  Michigan		24	0.5637
5  Union		22	0.5707
6  Miami		21	0.5555
7  Denver		20	0.5557
8  Merrimack		20	0.5480
9  Nebraska-Omaha	19	0.5458
10 Notre Dame		18	0.5539
11 Minnesota-Duluth	18	0.5528
12 New Hampshire	15	0.5468
13 Dartmouth		14	0.5356
14 Minnesota		14	0.5297
15 Western Michigan	13	0.5279
16 Colorado College	13	0.5253
17 Boston University	12	0.5352
18 Rensselaer		11	0.5229
19 Maine		9	0.5242
20 St. Cloud State	7	0.5113
21 Alaska		7	0.5086
22 RIT			6	0.5130

Numbers · Mar 7, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

That is looking really close dxmnnkd,
I have only a slight disagreement in RPI with the HE teams (otherwise the only change is +/- .0001, which I give up to how the calculation is run).

So, I have BC .5825
Merrimack .5586
UNH .5467
BU .5349
Maine .5243

I am not sure what could be affecting those numbers to such a small degree.

Oh, and what did you find that you had left out?

dxmnkd316 · Mar 7, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Numbers said:
That is looking really close dxmnnkd,
I have only a slight disagreement in RPI with the HE teams (otherwise the only change is +/- .0001, which I give up to how the calculation is run).

So, I have BC .5825
Merrimack .5586
UNH .5467
BU .5349
Maine .5243

I am not sure what could be affecting those numbers to such a small degree.

Oh, and what did you find that you had left out?

The auto-reseedings are essentially (V/H)LOOKUP commands. I forgot to relabel the columns since I had them locked ($A$1 and they didn't carry down).

Interesting that it's only HEA teams... I'll verify those teams.

Priceless · Mar 8, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Numbers said:
Priceless,
Doesn't Western Michigan belong in the "Need to play their way in" club also?
It seems if they lose their QF to Ferris, they can easily be out.

I only included teams that aren't in as of today. I haven't even looked at Western yet.

Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

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