Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

[UnionHockeyManiac]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

I wish it was, but considering that they only have a field of 13 under the "lose out" category, I'm guessing no.

Maybe one of the stats guys can verify.

But it's obviously impossible for every team to lose out so there would not be a field of 13.

 

[slurpees]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

I wish it was, but considering that they only have a field of 13 under the "lose out" category, I'm guessing no.

Maybe one of the stats guys can verify.

I'm no stat guru, but take an example like UNH and BC playing, it's impossible for everyone to lose out. My question would be more in the realm of how correct are they in their use of the PWR.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Wisconsin can finish anywhere from 5 to 9 in the WCHA, so the opponent for the 1st round could be almost anyone.

5th place is almost impossible for them to get; they'd have to sweep CC at home and hope MN fails to split at Bemidji. 9th is almost impossible as well, since it would require UAA to get 3 or 4 points in Mankato *and* SCSU would have to get at least 1-2 points in Denver. The most likely outcome is UW finishes 6th-7th and faces CC in round one.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

5th place is almost impossible for them to get; they'd have to sweep CC at home and hope MN fails to split at Bemidji. 9th is almost impossible as well, since it would require UAA to get 3 or 4 points in Mankato *and* SCSU would have to get at least 1-2 points in Denver. The most likely outcome is UW finishes 6th-7th and faces CC in round one.

Yes, but they CAN finish anywhere from 5 to 9

We'll pick up the list tomorrow with UNO.

 

[JimDahl]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

If three or more teams are tied, ties are broken by RPI. If two teams are tied there is some disagreement as to how the tie is broken. Some (SiouxSports) break the ties by RPI, others (TBRW) use the comparison. It has only happened once where the RPI and comparison disagreed, in 2005, and teams were switched anyway because of an all-HE 1st round game. The NCAA has not said how they break ties.

Sorry I haven't been around much this year, haven't had much time to venture beyond SiouxSports. To be clear, I have absolutely no idea what the tiebreaker is. I just use RPI because USCHO always has, and for a long time CHN and TBRW did (both originally being based on the same Whelan code as USCHO). Except when they're obviously wrong (which has happened) I try to make my PWR tables match USCHO just to avoid having to explain why it's different.

 

[jerphisch]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

One interesting thing from Moy's bracketology per the Championship Committee:

• No. 1 seeds are placed as close to home as possible in order of their ranking 1–4

So is a flight no longer a flight for the #1 seeds?

 

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Sorry I haven't been around much this year, haven't had much time to venture beyond SiouxSports. To be clear, I have absolutely no idea what the tiebreaker is. I just use RPI because USCHO always has, and for a long time CHN and TBRW did (both originally being based on the same Whelan code as USCHO). Except when they're obviously wrong (which has happened) I try to make my PWR tables match USCHO just to avoid having to explain why it's different.

I'm going to take FL (Jack Parker ) at his word and assume all ties are broken by RPI. I really doubt the NCAA is going to tell us anything.
Nice to see you around...you really ought to get out more

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Is this accurate: http://www.playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournpartprob.html

?

I would venture a guess that this site still thinks only the top 25 are TUCs, not all teams about .5000 RPI. Therefore, no.

 

[goblue78]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

I'm not sure why you're saying that. Not that I have any evidence to the contrary, but the numbers seem roughly consistent with the numbers Priceless is doing. Or, let me modify that... it seems to be on an entirely different system (MWP) which is largely consistent with but not really tracking TUC at all....

 

[unh1982]

I'm going to take FL (Jack Parker ) at his word and assume all ties are broken by RPI. I really doubt the NCAA is going to tell us anything.
Nice to see you around...you really ought to get out more

Priceless saw your thread below is it possable if unh ran the table or lost one to BC but win hockey east, could they get down to a 4 th in power

 

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

University of Nebraska-Omaha

What's the best that can happen? The Mavericks could win this weekend, win 4 TUC games in the WCHA (knocking out Denver on the way) while Bemidji State (0-3-1) and Quinnipiac (0-2) drop from TUC status. That would give them an impressive 22-5-1 (.796) TUC mark. That would flip the UNH, Denver and Michigan comparisons. That 6-0 record would be enough of an RPI boost to flip comparisons Merrimack, BC and Union. They would probably end up behind just Yale and North Dakota. Technically, they could catch the Sioux, but they are playing Tech 4 times and I can't with a straight face predict they are going to lose. That would put them at number 3 overall, a 1 seed in St. Louis most likely.

The worst that can happen is they lose twice this weekend and twice more to a TUC in the WCHA 1st round, while Bemidji and Quinnipiac stay TUC but they lose RIT. If the Mavs have to play the Beavers in the WCHA the odds for this scenario increases. That would still leave UNO with a 15-15-1 (.500) record. That would flip 10 comparisons and knock the Mavericks out of the tournament.

A lot of this will be determined this weekend when UNO plays a pair at UMD.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Pairwise games of the week:

#3 Boston College vs #12 New Hampshire
Aside from determining the Hockey East title and playoff seeding, the game features two team that are TUC and the outcomes will have a major implication on the COp component. A split would actually hurt both teams, as they are above .500 vs TUC. Taking at least 3 points is idea for both teams.

#8 Nebraska-Omaha vs #11 Minn-Duluth
UNO still has eyes on a number 1 seed, whereas UMD now just wants to make the field. The Bulldogs are quite familiar with being on the wrong end of the bubble on Selection Sunday.

#32 Quinnipiac vs Brown
A sweep here ensures that Qn will be a TUC when the season ends. Teams that are hoping they stay as a TUC (Yale, Cornell, Union) and those who are hoping they will fall off the cliff (UNO, RPI) should be watching intently.

#23 Alaska vs Michigan State
Alaska is firmly entrenched as a TUC and now should be focused on making a run to the NCAAs. MSU is right at the TUC line. Two wins in Fairbanks and at least one at Notre Dame will get them there.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Priceless saw your thread below is it possable if unh ran the table or lost one to BC but win hockey east, could they get down to a 4 th in power

If UNH splits this weekend but goes on to win Hockey East, they're tied for 4th with BC. If they win HE by defeating Merrimack instead of BC, they would be in 4th.

Caveat: This was done in a vacuum. While UNH is playing its games, Michigan, Denver etc are also playing and could move up or down based on their own performance. They are still eligible for a #1 seed, but it is unlikely.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

The script for tonight's games:

20110304	OS	0	LS	0	 NC
20110304	BG	0	NM	0	 NC
20110304	MS	0	Ak	0	 NC
20110304	Qn	0	Bn	0	 NC
20110304	Cg	0	RP	0	 NC
20110304	SL	0	Pn	0	 NC
20110304	Ha	0	Ck	0	 NC
20110304	NH	0	BC	0	 he
20110304	BU	0	NE	0	 he
20110304	ML	0	Vt	0	 he
20110304	Me	0	MA	0	 he
20110304	Pv	0	Mr	0	 he
20110304	Mn	0	BS	0	 wc
20110304	SC	0	DU	0	 wc
20110304	AA	0	Mk	0	 wc
20110304	ND	0	MT	0	 wc
20110304	NO	0	MD	0	 wc
20110304	CC	0	Wi	0	 wc

 

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

If Alaska wins:

1	Yale (EC)	31	0.5821
2	North Dak (WC)	30	0.5845
3	Boston Coll (HE)29	0.5721
4	Michigan (CC)	28	0.5574
5	Union (EC)	25	0.5636
6	Merrimack (HE)	25	0.5524
7	Denver U (WC)	25	0.5514
8	MinnDuluth (WC)	24	0.5533
9	Miami (CC)	23	0.5504
10	Notre Dame (CC) 22	0.5514
11	New Hamp (HE)	21	0.5462
12	NE-Omaha (WC)	21	0.5416
13	RPI (EC)	19	0.5339
14	CO College (WC)	18	0.5292
15	Boston Univ (HE)16	0.5383
---
16	Maine (HE)	16	0.5341
17	Dartmouth (EC)	16	0.5307

[B]Bridgeport	Manchester	St Louis	Green Bay[/B]
Yale		Boston Coll	Michigan	North Dakota
Merrimack	Union		Denver		Minn-Duluth
UNO		UNH		Miami		Notre Dame
AHA Champ	RPI		Colorado Coll	Boston U

If Michigan State wins:

1	Yale (EC)	32	0.5820
2	North Dak (WC)	31	0.5843
3	Boston Coll (HE)30	0.5722
4	Michigan (CC)	28	0.5573
5	Merrimack (HE)	27	0.5525
6	Union (EC)	26	0.5634
7	Notre Dame (CC)	26	0.5513
8	Denver U (WC)	26	0.5513
9	Miami (CC)	24	0.5504
10	MinnDuluth (WC)	24	0.5533
11	New Hamp (HE)	22	0.5462
12	NE-Omaha (WC)	21	0.5415
13	RPI (EC)	19	0.5340
14	CO College (WC)	19	0.5292
15	West Mich (CC)	18	0.5290
---
16	Boston U (HE)	17	0.5384
17	Dartmouth (EC)	16	0.5306

[B]Bridgeport	Manchester	St Louis	Green Bay[/B]
Yale		Boston Coll	Michigan	North Dakota
Merrimack	Union		Denver		Notre Dame
UNO		UNH		Miami		Minn-Duluth
AHA Champ	RPI		Colorado Coll	W Michigan

 

[Eaglefan06]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

BC helps themselves tonight. But they also hurt themselves at the same time. NCAA is probably praying UNH wins a few HE games to get them off the #4 seed line.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

The loss of Bemidji State as a TUC is huge for several teams. At the top of the field, North Dakota has dropped to #3. Colorado College drops out of the field entirely. UNO has solidified it's position as a #2 seed and still has their eyes on the final #1 seed.

If Denver wins, the late game in Alaska will have no impact on the pairwise. Update coming shortly...

 

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

1	Yale (EC)	29	0.5815
2	Boston Coll (HE)28	0.5756
3	North Dak (WC)	27	0.5839
4	Michigan (CC)	25	0.5577
5	Denver U (WC)	24	0.5537
6	Union (EC)	23	0.5629
7	NE-Omaha (WC)	23	0.5441
8	Merrimack (HE)	22	0.5455
9	Miami (CC)	21	0.5508
10	Notre Dame (CC) 20	0.5512
11	MinnDuluth (WC)	20	0.5492
12	New Hamp (HE)	17	0.5428
13	Dartmouth (EC)	16	0.5306
14	RPI (EC)	16	0.5281
15	West Mich (CC)	15	0.5299
---
16	Boston U (HE)	14	0.5338
17	CO College (WC)	14	0.5249

[B]Bridgeport	Manchester	St Louis	Green Bay[/B]
Yale		Boston Coll	Michigan	North Dakota
Merrimack	Union		Denver		UNO
Minn-Duluth	UNH		Miami		Notre Dame
AHA Champ	RPI		Dartmouth	W Michigan

If MSU wins, the TUC line will be

AK-Fairbanks	0.5086
RIT	        0.5039
MSU-Mankato	0.5022
Cornell	        0.5022
Air Force	0.5019
---
Mich State	0.5000
Robert Morris	0.4983*
Bemidji State	0.4976
Niagara	        0.4960*
Lake Superior	0.4940
NorthEastern	0.4936
Northern Mich	0.4928

If Alaska gets the win:

Quinnipiac	0.5087
RIT	        0.5040
MSU-Mankato	0.5023
Cornell	        0.5021
Air Force	0.5021
---
Robert Morris	0.4984*
Bemidji State	0.4976
Niagara	        0.4960*
Lake Superior	0.4940
NorthEastern	0.4936
Mich State	0.4933*
Northern Mich	0.4928

* - team is done playing for the season

 

[Slash01]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

The whole TUC thing is a confabulation of inferior statistics. Use KRACH. Pairwise===Pairdumb.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

The whole TUC thing is a confabulation of inferior statistics. Use KRACH. Pairwise===Pairdumb.

The whole TUC thing, though, hasn't been wrong with predicting which teams make the field, though. It's not about our opinion; it's about the commitee's opinion.