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The definitive tournament speculation thread

Re: Bracetology by Lerch

Re: Bracetology by Lerch

NUProf said:
My guess, if Fredonia upsets Plattsburgh - Fredonia goes to Adrian for a first rounder, with the winner to go to Elmira. Platts drops and Castleton sneaks in. (This assumes a SNC win). Hamline at SNC would be a quarterfinal. Byes go to Hamline, SNC, Elmira, Oswego, and Norwich.

I have run no numbers to support this, so I could be all wet.
Click to expand...

And why would Castleton get in ahead of Plattsburgh? They are already behind Plattsburgh in the rankings, didn't even make their conference finals..... unless St. Norbert loses to Superior, Plattsburgh shouldn't get bumped by either Neumann (unless it defeats Elmira and even then I'd have to see the numbers - Plattsburgh still has a head-to-head win over Neumann) or Castleton....
 
Re: Bracetology by Lerch

Re: Bracetology by Lerch

spwood said:
And why would Castleton get in ahead of Plattsburgh? They are already behind Plattsburgh in the rankings, didn't even make their conference finals..... unless St. Norbert loses to Superior, Plattsburgh shouldn't get bumped by either Neumann (unless it defeats Elmira and even then I'd have to see the numbers - Plattsburgh still has a head-to-head win over Neumann) or Castleton....
Click to expand...

It depends, when push comes to shove on two things. Does the committee want to award three bids to the SUNYAC? - Maybe the will, maybe they won't - I know it has happened before with the ECAC W getting three. How much does the committee weight win %? If Platts were to lose, Castleton's 0.833 is a pretty significant lead over Plattsburgh 0.697. I was trying to find the RNK numbers, but couldn't get the data from the NCAA, and the PWC doesn't report them. I don't know how the committee would ultimately look at the COP data, considering that each team has only one loss, and Platts just has played them a bunch more times.

The final decision is made, not by the east committee, but by the National committee, and the West has valued win% more than the east has this year.

I'm really just guessing here, and I said that I might be all wet, so view this as sheer speculation. Sometimes what emerges from the smoke filled room surprises us...
 
Re: Bracetology by Lerch

Re: Bracetology by Lerch

NUProf said:
It depends, when push comes to shove on two things. Does the committee want to award three bids to the SUNYAC? - Maybe the will, maybe they won't - I know it has happened before with the ECAC W getting three. How much does the committee weight win %? If Platts were to lose, Castleton's 0.833 is a pretty significant lead over Plattsburgh 0.697. I was trying to find the RNK numbers, but couldn't get the data from the NCAA, and the PWC doesn't report them. I don't know how the committee would ultimately look at the COP data, considering that each team has only one loss, and Platts just has played them a bunch more times.

The final decision is made, not by the east committee, but by the National committee, and the West has valued win% more than the east has this year.

I'm really just guessing here, and I said that I might be all wet, so view this as sheer speculation. Sometimes what emerges from the smoke filled room surprises us...
Click to expand...
Current Records vs. Ranked Teams as I have it.... still playing

Oswego 8-2-0
Elmira 10-5-2 RvRT game today
Plattsburgh 7-3-1
Norwich 6-4-1
Castleton 4-3-0
Neumann 8-6-2 RvRT game
Utica - 6-8-1
Geneseo - 3-5-1
Bowdoin - 4-2-1 RvRT game
Hobart - 7-9-1
Salem St - 5-2-0 RvRT game
Williams 0-6-2
Hamilton 2-3-2
Mass-Dartmouth 3-4-0
Colby 3-5-1 RvRT game
 
Re: Bracetology by Lerch

Re: Bracetology by Lerch

Based on that information, Plattsburgh does look pretty good, win/lose - it helps them a lot that Fredonia is not ranked (talk about a screwy system). That being said, I expect that Plattsburgh will win, and we will end up having to play Plattsburgh for a third time in the "spacious" new Stafford.
 
Re: Bracetology by Lerch

Re: Bracetology by Lerch

NUProf said:
Based on that information, Plattsburgh does look pretty good, win/lose - it helps them a lot that Fredonia is not ranked (talk about a screwy system). That being said, I expect that Plattsburgh will win, and we will end up having to play Plattsburgh for a third time in the "spacious" new Stafford.
Click to expand...
Not that it will hurt them too much, but the SoS for both Norwich and Plattsburgh will take a hit today. I think you each play a play-in game and then face each other in a QF.

I wonder if the NCAA should look at a way to exclude from the SoS a win in a tournament game that drags your SoS down. D-I does it with the RPI but that is for ALL games.

And in a few minutes, I will be off to Rockett Arena for what will be, in all likelihood, my son's last collegiate game. Sad feelings.
 
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Re: Bracetology by Lerch

Re: Bracetology by Lerch

NUProf said:
My guess, if Fredonia upsets Plattsburgh - Fredonia goes to Adrian for a first rounder, with the winner to go to Elmira. Platts drops and Castleton sneaks in. (This assumes a SNC win). Hamline at SNC would be a quarterfinal. Byes go to Hamline, SNC, Elmira, Oswego, and Norwich.

I have run no numbers to support this, so I could be all wet.
Click to expand...

If Plattsburgh is the only favorite to lose, then both they and Castleton would get in. It doesn't need to be one or the other. Pool c's would be Oswego, Platts, Castleton.

I suppose Neumann could still be considered, but I don't see another RNK loss helping them.
 
Re: Bracetology by Lerch

Re: Bracetology by Lerch

joecct said:
Not that it will hurt them too much, but the SoS for both Norwich and Plattsburgh will take a hit today. I think you each play a play-in game and then face each other in a QF.

I wonder if the NCAA should look at a way to exclude from the SoS a win in a tournament game that drags your SoS down. D-I does it with the RPI but that is for ALL games.
Click to expand...

It makes no sense for a team to take a hit because they had to play an inferior team in the playoffs. It's not the same thing as deliberately scheduling a NC game against a Salve Regina or someone like that. The UNE hurt NU's rankings

And in a few minutes, I will be off to Rockett Arena for what will be, in all likelihood, my son's last collegiate game. Sad feelings.
Click to expand...


Good luck to him, and thanks for all your perspectives on the MASCAC as it has come into being. Without you we'd know very little about it. Next year we will have to deal with the impact of its AQ
 
Re: Bracetology by Lerch

Re: Bracetology by Lerch

NUProf said:
If Platts were to lose, Castleton's 0.833 is a pretty significant lead over Plattsburgh 0.697. I was trying to find the RNK numbers, but couldn't get the data from the NCAA, and the PWC doesn't report them.
Click to expand...
From a link to a pdf on the bottom of the NCAA - D3 rankings page ... RNK
Castleton: 5-2-0 (0.714)
Plattsburgh: 7-3-1 (0.682)

PS - sucks that I can't spell Bracketology correctly after all these years.

Edit: The choice between Castleton and P'burgh will interesting if it occurs. Castleton wins WIN and RNK, P'burgh wins SOS and COP, perhaps they should schedule each other during the regular season!?
 
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Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Anyone have an idea when the NCAA pairings will be published tomorrow?
 
Re: Bracetology by Lerch

Re: Bracetology by Lerch

elbojpb said:
Edit: The choice between Castleton and P'burgh will interesting if it occurs. Castleton wins WIN and RNK, P'burgh wins SOS and COP, perhaps they should schedule each other during the regular season!?
Click to expand...


They will be. Hense Plattsburgh and Elmira going bye bye...
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

The Elmira newspaper said the bids were coming out Monday morning. Is this true or will they be out Sun. night as usual?
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

DH003325 said:
The Elmira newspaper said the bids were coming out Monday morning. Is this true or will they be out Sun. night as usual?
Click to expand...

It should be Sunday - perhaps the paper is only saying so because they won't be printing the results until Monday.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Nothing makes it in the Elmira newspaper if it happens after 6:00pm the day before. :rolleyes: ;)

EDIT: Or they run-out of space to print it. ;)
 
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Re: Bracetology by Lerch

Re: Bracetology by Lerch

elbojpb said:
From a link to a pdf on the bottom of the NCAA - D3 rankings page ... RNK
Castleton: 5-2-0 (0.714)
Plattsburgh: 7-3-1 (0.682)

PS - sucks that I can't spell Bracketology correctly after all these years.

Edit: The choice between Castleton and P'burgh will interesting if it occurs. Castleton wins WIN and RNK, P'burgh wins SOS and COP, perhaps they should schedule each other during the regular season!?
Click to expand...

One note: as Joe points out here, it appears Castleton is actually 4-3 in RNK. I just ran the schedule myself, and came up with the same thing: 1-1 vs Norwich, 0-1 vs Colby, 0-1 vs Bowdoin, 1-0 vs Williams, 1-0 vs Hamilton, and 1-0 vs Middlebury for a 4-3 record. This puts them behind Plattsburgh in RNK at .571. Hopefully (well, for my sake anyway) (and then only if it comes down to it), somebody more official-like will correct this at committee.
 
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