The definitive tournament speculation thread

NUProf · Mar 5, 2011

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

joecct said:
Not wanting to be naive, but how does Salem win the comparisons vs. NU the lesser and Castleton 3-1 and not get in? If you want to say that SoS beats WinPct, then Salem beats CSC. If WinPct beats SoS, then Salem beats Neumann. Salem beats both in RvRT

Castleton lost in their league semifinals to an unranked team, a team that Salem beat in the regular season. Salem lost to a (previously) ranked team in their league finals.

I think Salem has a good case, but based on the rankings that we have seen so far, for some reason they aren't getting a lot of traction. My predictions are based on what we've seen, not on what should be. (But I think you know that) Salem would have a better case if they had won today, too.

joecct · Mar 5, 2011

Re: The figures

Re: The figures

elbojpb said:
Here are the figures from the NCAA site dated 3/1. Adjust by tonight's results.

Castleton 20-3-1 ( 0.854) 0.477 0.495 0.483 5-2-0 ( 0.714)
Neumann 14-7-5 ( 0.635) 0.539 0.546 0.541 8-6-2 ( 0.563)
Salem St. 15-6-2 ( 0.696) 0.498 0.498 0.498 2-1-0 ( 0.667)

I think I've shown that the NCAA RvRT is wrong. CSC is 4-3-0, NEU is now 8-7-2, and SSU is now 5-3-0.

And yes, Prof. If Salem had won today, I think they punched their ticket. I am now singing "Smoke gets in your eyes" and hoping that the weight of superior numbers overwhelms the Eastern Selection committee and Salem gets its due.

rockandrock44 · Mar 5, 2011

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

NUProf said:
I've been calculating and come up with this assuming Adrian wins

The Pool B and C selections seem pretty clear

Pool B Elmira
Pool C Oswego
Pool C Castleton
Pool C Neumann

Based on the last set of rankings and the assumption that little will change

Geographically, the byes have to go to SNC, Adrian, Hamline, Oswego, and Elmira

That means that SNC will play Hamline in one quarter, Adrian will Elmira in another.

The Seeds are
W1 SNC
W2 Adrian
W3 Hamline

E1 Oswego
E2 Elmira
E3 Platty
E4 the real NU (Norwich)
E5 Castleton
E6 the fake NU (Neumann)
E7 Nescac winner
E8 Curry

1. Curry goes to Platty
2. Bowdoin/Williams goes to Norwich
3. Neumann goest to Castleton

Winners 1 & 2 meet
Wiiner 3 goes to Oswego

Of course, if Marian wins, it changes things.

I have the same rankings as you, but my bracket would look like this:

First Round
W3 Hamline @ W2 Adrian
E8 Curry @ E5 Castleton
E7 Williams/Bowdoin @ E6 Neumann

Quarter Finals
W3/W2 Winner @ W1 St. Norbert
E4 Norwich @ E3 Plattsburgh
Lowest Eastern Seed @ E1 Oswego
Remaining Eastern Seed @ E2 Elmira

I see that the Hamline/Adrian match would be over 600 miles, but how does one solve that when you have three western teams pushed into the quarter finals? Then you either have to make the match-ups or push an eastern team to the west or vice versa. Edit- Now I get it, scratch this.

NUProf · Mar 5, 2011

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

rockandrock44 said:
I see that the Hamline/Adrian match would be over 600 miles, but how does one solve that when you have three western teams pushed into the quarter finals? Then you either have to make the match-ups or push an eastern team to the west or vice versa. Maybe I'm missing something.

NCAA rules require flights if the distance exceeds 500 miles. NCAA rules dictate that flights be avoided during the first round and the quarters if it is possible to do so. The distance between Adrian and Elmira is less than 500 miles. Thus Hamiline and Adrian will not meet.

Irishdave · Mar 5, 2011

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

By the NCAA calculator
https://web1.ncaa.org/TES/exec/TES/exec/miles
Adrian and Elmira are 499 Miles apart

Josh Carey · Mar 5, 2011

Re: Bracetology by Lerch

Re: Bracetology by Lerch

joecct said:

Just food for thought...

Code:

Castleton vs Salem State 
WIN 0.8200  1  0.6800  0 
SOS 0.4829  0  0.4974  1 
H2H 0- 0- 0 0  0- 0- 0 0 
COP 3- 2- 1 0  3- 1- 0 1 
RNK 4- 3- 0 0  5- 3- 0 1 
======================= 
PTS         1          3

Neumann vs Salem State 
WIN 0.6346  0  0.6800  1 
SOS 0.5439  1  0.4974  0 
H2H 0- 0- 0 0  0- 0- 0 0 
COP 0- 0- 1 0  1- 0- 0 1 
RNK 8- 7- 2 0  5- 3- 0 1 
====================== 
PTS         1          3

So... Salem State doesn't deserve to get in by the numbers? The only comparison with Castelton that's convincing in either direction goes away from them. Otherwise we're pretty much talking about a half game or so everywhere else. Much like the committee, I don't care about the number of category "wins" but the relative impact of each category win. Three barely recognizable wins do not outweigh one huge one.

In the case with Neumann, SOS is key. The fact Neumann has more games against ranked teams factors into the SOS argument, even though their record in such games is technically slightly worse, and the COP pretty much gets tossed out as a small sample size. Closer, sure, but still not close enough. Anyone posting a bracket with a prediction of Salem State being in the tournament is being optimistic, not realistic, and will be very disappointed Monday morning.

Josh Carey · Mar 5, 2011

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Irishdave said:
By the NCAA calculator
https://web1.ncaa.org/TES/exec/TES/exec/miles
Adrian and Elmira are 499 Miles apart

And Adrian to Elmira's rink is 496 miles.

joecct · Mar 6, 2011

Re: Bracetology by Lerch

Re: Bracetology by Lerch

Josh Carey said:
So... Salem State doesn't deserve to get in by the numbers? The only comparison with Castelton that's convincing in either direction goes away from them. Otherwise we're pretty much talking about a half game or so everywhere else. Much like the committee, I don't care about the number of category "wins" but the relative impact of each category win. Three barely recognizable wins do not outweigh one huge one.

In the case with Neumann, SOS is key. The fact Neumann has more games against ranked teams factors into the SOS argument, even though their record in such games is technically slightly worse, and the COP pretty much gets tossed out as a small sample size. Closer, sure, but still not close enough. Anyone posting a bracket with a prediction of Salem State being in the tournament is being optimistic, not realistic, and will be very disappointed Monday morning.

I'm not going to be disappointed, they had their chance and blew it.

Consider this though...
OOC schedule...
Castleton played: Becker (1-0-0, .460), Brockport (1-0-0, .220), Norwich (1-0-0, .750), Morrisville (1-0-0, .460), J&W (1-0-0, .563), Potsdam (1-0-0, .271)
Neuman, played: Geneseo (0-1-1, .6364), Curry (1-0-0, .648 NCAA team), Cortland (2-0-0, .280), Brockport (1-0-1, .220), NEC (0-0-1, .313), Morrisville (1-1-0, .460)
Salem St Played: Wentworth (1-0-0, .542), USM (0-1-0, .438), Colby (1-0-0, .522), Babson (1-0-0, .423), NEC (1-0-0, .313)
They're similar.

And when your entire conference gets ranked may say something about how "good" your conference is, or it's a function of the rankers' perceptions. That did do wonders for Neumann's RvRT.

snc1 · Mar 6, 2011

Irishdave said:
By the NCAA calculator
https://web1.ncaa.org/TES/exec/TES/exec/miles
Adrian and Elmira are 499 Miles apart

Anyone else think that number is fudged just a hair to give the NCAA more options in early round games?

CARDS_rule_the_Burgh · Mar 6, 2011

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

snc1 said:
Anyone else think that number is fudged just a hair to give the NCAA more options in early round games?

Well, google maps has the campus-to-campus trip (which is all the NCAA says they care about) at 461mi. So if they were trying to fudge it so they could use that trip, they came very close to doing the exact opposite

sshablak · Mar 6, 2011

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Are the NCAA seedings out today ??

norm1909 · Mar 6, 2011

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

sshablak said:
Are the NCAA seedings out today ??

I think they do take the seeds out before they smoke it.

CARDS_rule_the_Burgh · Mar 6, 2011

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

sshablak said:
Are the NCAA seedings out today ??

The final regional rankings of the season will, much like the initial rankings, never be published. We will never see them.

As for the tournament bracket: patience. Let's consider this: there are still 2 AQs to be determined, and one of them (the MCHA) has HUGE geographic implications on the bracket. I highly doubt that you will see a bracket, or any hints of the bracket, before those games are done. In fact, I am 100% positive that you won't. Now, usually the bracket is released some time between 9pm ET and midnight on Sunday, but some very reputable sources have been saying here (if you've been reading, that is) that we won't see it until sometime Monday morning.

So, take a deep breath, relax, and have some patience. It will come in due time.

(Oh, and can you promise me you won't whine and cry like a child (or like some - although certainly not all, or even the majority - first-year Adrian fans) when you don't see Utica on the bracket?)

PrezdeJohnson09 · Mar 6, 2011

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

BUhockey24 said:
Is there a factor here with McShane being on the selection committee and Dominic Dawes a former player at Norwich, factor into the decision making? Im just throwing these questions out there.

No.

sshablak · Mar 6, 2011

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

UC's cooked...You're not too intelligent are you ?

joecct · Mar 6, 2011

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

The remaining East Contenders for Pool C slots, who wins the comparisons.....

Code:

<html>
<body>
<div align="left">

<table border="1" cellspacing="1">
    <tr>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">BOW</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">CSC</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">FIT</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">HOB</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">NEU</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">SSU</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">UTC</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">WIL</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">TOTAL</font></td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td><font face="Arial">BOW</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">?</font></td>
        <td>4+?</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td><font face="Arial">CSC</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td>5</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td><font face="Arial">FIT</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td>1</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td><font face="Arial">HOB</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">?</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">?</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td>2+??</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td><font face="Arial">NEU</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">?</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td>2+?</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td><font face="Arial">SSU</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td>5</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td><font face="Arial">UTC</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">?</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td>4+?</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td><font face="Arial">WIL</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td>0</td>
    </tr>
</table>
</div>
</body>
</html>

The ? among the ECAC-W clubs because I'm not sure how they will break the tie between the schools - using H2H or SoS. H2H seems to be better as they played each other 3x and that is, to use a phrase often seen here, a "representative sample". But I left it with a ? to be consistent.

The ? between Bowdoin and Williams depends on the results of today's game. If Bowdoin loses, Williams wins the comparisons.

LakerFan99 · Mar 6, 2011

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

joecct said:

The remaining East Contenders for Pool C slots, who wins the comparisons.....

Code:

<html>
<body>
<div align="left">

<table border="1" cellspacing="1">
    <tr>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">BOW</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">CSC</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">FIT</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">HOB</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">NEU</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">SSU</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">UTC</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">WIL</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">TOTAL</font></td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td><font face="Arial">BOW</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">?</font></td>
        <td>4+?</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td><font face="Arial">CSC</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td>5</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td><font face="Arial">FIT</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td>1</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td><font face="Arial">HOB</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">?</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">?</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td>2+??</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td><font face="Arial">NEU</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">?</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td>2+?</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td><font face="Arial">SSU</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td>5</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td><font face="Arial">UTC</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">?</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td>4+?</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td><font face="Arial">WIL</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td>0</td>
    </tr>
</table>
</div>
</body>
</html>

The ? among the ECAC-W clubs because I'm not sure how they will break the tie between the schools - using H2H or SoS. H2H seems to be better as they played each other 3x and that is, to use a phrase often seen here, a "representative sample". But I left it with a ? to be consistent.

The ? between Bowdoin and Williams depends on the results of today's game. If Bowdoin loses, Williams wins the comparisons.

I admit I'm feeling a little stupid today, so forgive me if I ask you to explain this. I have no idea what I'm looking at. Are you saying that Williams wins the comparisons for a Pool C?

LakerFan99 · Mar 6, 2011

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

sshablak said:
UC's cooked...You're not too intelligent are you ?

Especially when there are people who think that UC should get in over Neumann. UC is 0-4 vs Neumann this year. I don't quite get it.

Josh Carey · Mar 6, 2011

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

joecct said:

The remaining East Contenders for Pool C slots, who wins the comparisons.....

Code:

<html>
<body>
<div align="left">

<table border="1" cellspacing="1">
    <tr>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">BOW</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">CSC</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">FIT</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">HOB</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">NEU</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">SSU</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">UTC</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">WIL</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">TOTAL</font></td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td><font face="Arial">BOW</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">?</font></td>
        <td>4+?</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td><font face="Arial">CSC</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td>5</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td><font face="Arial">FIT</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td>1</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td><font face="Arial">HOB</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">?</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">?</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td>2+??</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td><font face="Arial">NEU</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">?</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td>2+?</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td><font face="Arial">SSU</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td>5</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td><font face="Arial">UTC</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">?</font></td>
        <td><font face="Arial">X</font></td>
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        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
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        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
        <td><font face="Arial"></font> </td>
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The ? among the ECAC-W clubs because I'm not sure how they will break the tie between the schools - using H2H or SoS. H2H seems to be better as they played each other 3x and that is, to use a phrase often seen here, a "representative sample". But I left it with a ? to be consistent.

The ? between Bowdoin and Williams depends on the results of today's game. If Bowdoin loses, Williams wins the comparisons.

What's your methodology on determining what "wins" a comparison?

CARDS_rule_the_Burgh · Mar 6, 2011

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Josh Carey said:
What's your methodology on determining what "wins" a comparison?

He's still using the "number of categories won by any margin" system.

The definitive tournament speculation thread

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