The definitive tournament speculation thread

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I'm sure this has been discussed already, but what are the chances Oswego hosts a game in the NCAA Tournament?

Not only will they be hosting an NCAA Tournament game.

I honestly don't see a scenario where they lose the #1 seed in the East and would have to play in a play-in game even with a 7-4 split, which would force all the play-in into the East.

Elmira shouldn't pass Oswego whether they beat Neumann this weekend or not.

Oswego should be hosting an NCAA Quarterfinal game next Saturday against an opponent TBD.

 

[joecct]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Not only will they be hosting an NCAA Tournament game.

I honestly don't see a scenario where they lose the #1 seed in the East and would have to play in a play-in game even with a 7-4 split, which would force all the play-in into the East.

Elmira shouldn't pass Oswego whether they beat Neumann this weekend or not.

Oswego should be hosting an NCAA Quarterfinal game next Saturday against an opponent TBD.

I think we can say the same thing for Elmira, but we sort of know who their QF opponent will be, assuming the MCHA & NCHA hold form.

Edit: Just sent an email off to the NCAA letting them know that the record vs. Ranked teams was incorrect. I'll see how they respond and let you all know.
Records known to be wrong (in case you're keeping score at home): Fitchburg St, Salem St, UMD

 

[NUProf]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Fitchburg St, Salem St, UMD

hmmmmm.....Black helicopter hovering over the smoke-filled phone lines?

 

[turntheradioff]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

If Fredonia wins the SUNYAC is there a scenario that would lead to a 7-4 split and a game for them @ Elmira instead of having them travel from Fredonia to Plattsburgh back to Fredonia and then to Vermont? When they did that after winning the SUNYAC back in 07' they got sent back to Middlebury for a Tuesday game after a Saturday in Plattsburgh and it didn't go so well.

Also, could they play Adrian in the first round in an 8-3 split? Adrian is 100 miles closer than the Non-Sunyac schools in the last projection (not counting Elmira who I assume would have a bye) but I don't know if they can have a first round East-West match-up, even if it made life easier travel wise. Everyone seems to be giving the title to Plattsburgh so I'm just wondering where Fredonia will end up if they win on Saturday.

 

[CARDS_rule_the_Burgh]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

If Fredonia wins the SUNYAC is there a scenario that would lead to a 7-4 split and a game for them @ Elmira instead of having them travel from Fredonia to Plattsburgh back to Fredonia and then to Vermont? When they did that after winning the SUNYAC back in 07' they got sent back to Middlebury for a Tuesday game after a Saturday in Plattsburgh and it didn't go so well.

Also, could they play Adrian in the first round in an 8-3 split? Adrian is 100 miles closer than the Non-Sunyac schools in the last projection (not counting Elmira who I assume would have a bye) but I don't know if they can have a first round East-West match-up, even if it made life easier travel wise. Everyone seems to be giving the title to Plattsburgh so I'm just wondering where Fredonia will end up if they win on Saturday.

If Fredonia got the AQ, I see absolutely no justification for NOT sending Fredonia to play in Michigan. Logic would ALSO dictate that the winner of that first-round game ought to travel to Elmira for the Quarterfinal.

I'd set it up thusly:

NCAA 1st Round
Curry @ Castleton/Neumann
Williams @ Norwich
Fredonia @ Adrian

NCAA Quarterfinals
Hamline @ St. Norbert
Adrian/Fredonia winner @ Elmira
Curry/Castleton/Neumann winner @ Oswego
Williams/Norwich winner @ Plattsburgh

 

[turntheradioff]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

If Fredonia got the AQ, I see absolutely no justification for NOT sending Fredonia to play in Michigan. Logic would ALSO dictate that the winner of that first-round game ought to travel to Elmira for the Quarterfinal.

I'd set it up thusly:

NCAA 1st Round
Curry @ Castleton/Neumann
Williams @ Norwich
Fredonia @ Adrian

NCAA Quarterfinals
Hamline @ St. Norbert
Adrian/Fredonia winner @ Elmira
Curry/Castleton/Neumann winner @ Oswego
Williams/Norwich winner @ Plattsburgh

Thats what made the most sense to me but I wasn't sure if you could send an east team to play a west team in the first round, even if logic dictates the match up.

 

[DIIIFan]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Not only will they be hosting an NCAA Tournament game.

I honestly don't see a scenario where they lose the #1 seed in the East and would have to play in a play-in game even with a 7-4 split, which would force all the play-in into the East.

Elmira shouldn't pass Oswego whether they beat Neumann this weekend or not.

Oswego should be hosting an NCAA Quarterfinal game next Saturday against an opponent TBD.

Pres I hope you are right about Oswego not loosing the # 1 seed. I honestly think Norwich will be number 1 in the east if they win their tourney. And I say this because Oswego bowed out in the semi's and this time of the year is it what have you done lately to get in. And the Lakers have all thier losses in the second half of the season.
Oswego '89

 

[CARDS_rule_the_Burgh]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Thats what made the most sense to me but I wasn't sure if you could send an east team to play a west team in the first round, even if logic dictates the match up.

Officially, there only rule they have to abide by here is that 500miles or greater is a flight, and they have to keep flights in the First Round and QF round to a minimum if existent at all. Logic would have dictated sending Adrian to Elmira last year, but instead W1 St. Norbert lost their BYE to accommodate keeping Adrian in the West. UNLIKE last year, however, in this hypothetical scenario there is a way to set up the bracket so that either team in the Adrian matchup can win and go to the QF without a flight. Last year, that was not not a possibility, so they kept Adrian in the West and sent them to the option they were less likely to beat

Wow, I almost think St. Norbert fans ought to be rooting for Fredonia this weekend

 

[AldenPartridge1819]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

If Fredonia got the AQ, I see absolutely no justification for NOT sending Fredonia to play in Michigan. Logic would ALSO dictate that the winner of that first-round game ought to travel to Elmira for the Quarterfinal.

I'd set it up thusly:

NCAA 1st Round
Curry @ Castleton/Neumann
Williams @ Norwich
Fredonia @ Adrian

NCAA Quarterfinals
Hamline @ St. Norbert
Adrian/Fredonia winner @ Elmira
Curry/Castleton/Neumann winner @ Oswego
Williams/Norwich winner @ Plattsburgh

I would have to think that if Platts lost and all other favorites won, Norwich would move above them. It's a small switch, but it would mean changing the bracket so that Williams goes to Platts on Wed. with the winner at the Wick on Sat.

 

[puckrfactor]

My question is, does Hamline get in even if they lose on Saturday? Is there resume strong enough for pool c consideration

I think they would at least be considered. They do have wins over SNC and MSOE in the west but also losses to Adrian and Geneseo. Very good SOS but who knows what they're "smokin' in the NCAA boysroom"?

 

[NUProf]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I would have to think that if Platts lost and all other favorites won, Norwich would move above them. It's a small switch, but it would mean changing the bracket so that Williams goes to Platts on Wed. with the winner at the Wick on Sat.

This would be close. I assumed Norwich would face Castleton in the finals (I recalculated everything except for SOS based on that scenario) It looks like this:

Norwich 	vs 	Plattsburgh 
WIN 0.7800  	 	0.6852 	
SOS 0.5149 		0.5298 	 
H2H 0- 2- 0 		2- 0- 0 	
COP 3- 0- 1 		3- 0- 0 	     
RNK 0.6250 		0.6818 	     (7-4-1    7-3-1)

Norwich would have a very significant advantage over Plattsburgh on the WIN metric.

I don't think SOS would change markedly. Norwich would play USM which would drop the metric a bit, and then playing Castleton would bring it back up. Plattsburgh would drop a bit by playing Fredonia, but not enough to make much difference.

COP doesn't change, and NU would improve in RNK by beating Castleton.

It depends on how the Committee would weight the factors. The question would be whether Norwich advantage in WIN would be enough to overcome the H2H results and the very close comparisons in the other metrics, which favor Plattsburgh, although very slightly.

 

[NorthernLite]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

It depends on how the Committee would weight the factors.

Questions on weighting:
When do the committees chose or agree to the criteria used in the weighting ?
Do both regional commitees employ the same weightings in their respective rankings ?
Is the weighting consistent thoughout the ranking process or could it vary from week to week to selection Sunday ?

 

[nysportsfan29]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

If Fredonia got the AQ, I see absolutely no justification for NOT sending Fredonia to play in Michigan. Logic would ALSO dictate that the winner of that first-round game ought to travel to Elmira for the Quarterfinal.

I'd set it up thusly:

NCAA 1st Round
Curry @ Castleton/Neumann
Williams @ Norwich
Fredonia @ Adrian

NCAA Quarterfinals
Hamline @ St. Norbert
Adrian/Fredonia winner @ Elmira
Curry/Castleton/Neumann winner @ Oswego
Williams/Norwich winner @ Plattsburgh

I'm sold. Go Freddy.

 

[NUProf]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Questions on weighting:
When do the committees chose or agree to the criteria used in the weighting ?

When they discuss the rankings each week

Do both regional commitees employ the same weightings in their respective rankings ?

Only by accident

Is the weighting consistent thoughout the ranking process or could it vary from week to week to selection Sunday ?

It seems that it can even vary from comparison to comparison

In the smoke-filled room down is up and up is down...

 

[joecct]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Eastern Records vs. Ranked teams
Team, NCAA, What I have
Oswego, 8-2-0, 8-2-0
Elmira, 10-5-2, 10-5-2
Plattsburgh, 7-3-1, 7-3-1 fixed
Norwich, 6-4-1, 6-4-1
Castleton, 5-2-0, 4-3-0
Neumann, 8-6-2, 8-6-2
Utica, 6-8-1, 6-8-1
Geneseo, 3-5-1, 3-5-1
Bowdoin, 4-2-1, 4-2-1
Hobart, 6-9-1, 7-9-1
Salem State, 2-1-0, 5-2-0
Williams, 1-5-2, 0-6-2
Hamilton, 3-3-2, 2-3-2
UMD, 3-4-0,3-3-0
Colby, 3-6-1, 3-5-1

Fitchburg, 2-2-0, 2-4-0
Middlebury, 2-3-3, 2-4-2
Manhattanville, 4-10-1, 4-10-1 fixed

If I could explain it, I would. Can anyone find errors?? I KNOW my MASCAC #'s are correct. <strike>I thought I may have excluded an interlock game, but if Norwich's record is correct, then I could not have.</strike>

 

[AldenPartridge1819]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Eastern Records vs. Ranked teams
Team, NCAA, What I have
Oswego, 8-2-0, 8-2-0
Elmira, 10-5-2, 10-5-2
Plattsburgh, 7-3-1, 6-3-1
Norwich, 6-4-1, 6-4-1
Castleton, 5-2-0, 4-3-0
Neumann, 8-6-2, 8-6-2
Utica, 6-8-1, 6-8-1
Geneseo, 3-5-1, 3-5-1
Bowdoin, 4-2-1, 4-2-1
Hobart, 6-9-1, 7-9-1
Salem State, 2-1-0, 5-2-0
Williams, 1-5-2, 0-5-1
Hamilton, 3-3-2, 2-3-2
UMD, 3-4-0,3-3-0
Colby, 3-6-1, 3-5-1

Fitchburg, 2-2-0, 2-4-0
Middlebury, 2-3-3, 2-4-2
Manhattanville, 4-10-1, 4-10-0

If I could explain it, I would. Can anyone find errors?? I KNOW my MASCAC #'s are correct. I thought I may have excluded an interlock team, but if Norwich's record is correct, then I could not have.

I too see some errors. It seems like they did once-ranked-always-ranked for some teams and not others, while some are just plain wrong. I'm really not sure what's going on. In some cases, I'm getting a third number, different from both you and the NCAA.

You would think they could get this right. Even a simple plug-in on excel would give them the correct records.

 

[NUProf]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Eastern Records vs. Ranked teams
Team, NCAA, What I have
Oswego, 8-2-0, 8-2-0
Elmira, 10-5-2, 10-5-2
Plattsburgh, 7-3-1, 6-3-1
Norwich, 6-4-1, 6-4-1
Castleton, 5-2-0, 4-3-0
Neumann, 8-6-2, 8-6-2
Utica, 6-8-1, 6-8-1
Geneseo, 3-5-1, 3-5-1
Bowdoin, 4-2-1, 4-2-1
Hobart, 6-9-1, 7-9-1
Salem State, 2-1-0, 5-2-0
Williams, 1-5-2, 0-5-1
Hamilton, 3-3-2, 2-3-2
UMD, 3-4-0,3-3-0
Colby, 3-6-1, 3-5-1

Fitchburg, 2-2-0, 2-4-0
Middlebury, 2-3-3, 2-4-2
Manhattanville, 4-10-1, 4-10-0

If I could explain it, I would. Can anyone find errors?? I KNOW my MASCAC #'s are correct. I thought I may have excluded an interlock team, but if Norwich's record is correct, then I could not have.

Joe, you are missing Williams v. Manhattanville for one thing... Easy to chase down - M'vill had only one tie and it was against Williams, and Williams is ranked

 

[Dyce]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Plattsburgh's count actually seems correct for me: 0-2 vs Oswego, 0-0-1 vs Elmira, 2-0 vs Norwich, 1-0 vs Neumann, 2-1 vs Geneseo, 1-0 vs Williams, and 1-0 vs Middlebury adds up to 7-3-1 under once-ranked, always-ranked.

 

[joecct]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Plattsburgh's count actually seems correct for me: 0-2 vs Oswego, 0-0-1 vs Elmira, 2-0 vs Norwich, 1-0 vs Neumann, 2-1 vs Geneseo, 1-0 vs Williams, and 1-0 vs Middlebury adds up to 7-3-1 under once-ranked, always-ranked.

Thanks Dyce and Prof, but there are still discrepancies on other schools. Hope the NCAA fixes them before Sunday nite.

 

[elbojpb]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Thanks Dyce and Prof, but there are still discrepancies on other schools. Hope the NCAA fixes them before Sunday nite.

I gotta admire your tenacity. You're hell bent on getting Salem St into the tourney even if you have to appeal to the NCAA!. Have you done the PWR comparisons with the teams against which they're competing? and how does Salem compare even without the Ranked team winning %?