RPI Engineers 2018-2019

[hab]

Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

Really good analysis by both of you ARM and Lugnut. I have followed the Engineers for many years, and there is no question this is the most difficult team to figure out. My gut tells me that they are not as good as their record indicates (really pains me to say that). But, on the other hand I continue to be amazed at their ability to do what needs to be done to win games. Selander is a huge part of it, for sure, but having watched most of their games i am confident in saying that there is more to it than that. There is a real grittiness to this team. It seems to be a "rope-a-dope" approach: hit me with your best shots and wear yourself out ....all we need is one goal...maybe two...and you will leave the rink with your tail between your legs. If I were one of the top 4 teams I'm not sure I would want to face the Engineers in the first round.

 

[Ralph Baer]

Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

That we have an .833 win percentage when we score first (as opposed to 0.076 when trailing first) would suggest that there is something not-truly-random to scoring rates in our games.

That's an indication of very low scoring games. I would think that such stats are common for soccer teams.

 

[pucko]

Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

RPI is confident with their goalie and it seems to show. If you have a great goalie that not only can keep you in the game, but can steal wins for you, it can completely transform your team and your team's mindset. Coach Vines also has the girls buying into that gritty play and constant hustle. He's done a fantastic job this year.

 

[lugnut92]

Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

Of course, the game right after I point out that we have very little success when conceding first, we go on to win 5-2. Not that I'm complaining...

 

[Ralph Baer]

Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

Of course, the game right after I point out that we have very little success when conceding first, we go on to win 5-2. Not that I'm complaining...

30 saves for Selander. She needs 10 more.

 

[lugnut92]

Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

Yale and Quinnipiac tie, so the magic number falls to 5. A win tomorrow would be very big.

 

[Reddington]

Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

12 wins for RPI. Wow!

 

[lugnut92]

Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

Now 0.5% to miss the playoffs, with 0.4% to host. Expected to earn 3.4 points over our last five (the distribution is bimodal with peaks at 2 and 4 points).

 

[hab]

Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

Selander has now set a new NCAA career save record! And RPI leading Harvard 1-0, late in first period.

 

[thirdtime's . . .]

Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

Congratulations to Selander! And a thank-you to RPI TV for eliminating the usual nail-biting while waiting for ESPN to stream.

 

[Ralph Baer]

Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

RPI lost to Harvard 2-1.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The record breaking puck! Lovisa’s 54-save day gives her 3,853 through 124 career games. <a href="https://t.co/lP3ubYOeMT">pic.twitter.com/lP3ubYOeMT</a></p>— RPI Athletics (@RPIAthletics) <a href="https://twitter.com/RPIAthletics/status/1094365732211707905?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 9, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

She could get to 4K before the regular season ends.
As to 4,094, that could be reached in the first round of the playoffs.

 

[shelfit]

RPI lost to Harvard 2-1.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The record breaking puck! Lovisa’s 54-save day gives her 3,853 through 124 career games. <a href="https://t.co/lP3ubYOeMT">pic.twitter.com/lP3ubYOeMT</a></p>— RPI Athletics (@RPIAthletics) <a href="https://twitter.com/RPIAthletics/status/1094365732211707905?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 9, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

She could get to 4K before the regular season ends.
As to 4,094, that could be reached in the first round of the playoffs.

She is a tremendous talent. There's no doubt about that. She will also be impossible to replace when she graduates and that doesn't bode well for this team in the very near future! The sad reality of those stats is that it's proof the team in front of her has been dominated in their own zone (and in general) for her entire career. That is the real problem that needs to be fixed. They have gotten too comfortable in relying on her game after game season after season. The incoming recruits better be program changers!

 

[lugnut92]

Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

As to 4,094, that could be reached in the first round of the playoffs.

If we're out in 2, she needs 40.3 per game. That's a looooooot. If we win at least one in the playoffs, it drops to a more manageable 34.6, which is almost exactly in line with what we would expect based on her current save percentage and our average shots allowed per game.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

Now 0.5% to miss the playoffs, with 0.4% to host. Expected to earn 3.4 points over our last five (the distribution is bimodal with peaks at 2 and 4 points).

Union, Brown, and Dartmouth can no longer make the playoffs. Yale is on 14, 8th place Quinnipiac is on 16, and RPI on 19., with 4 games to play. Harvard controls the tiebreak over RPI, we have the advantage over Quinnipiac, and would take a tiebreak with SLU on number of wins, assuming three brothers don't come along. A win vs. Quinnipiac would almost assuredly solidify our spot.

 

[Ralph Baer]

Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

She is a tremendous talent. There's no doubt about that. She will also be impossible to replace when she graduates and that doesn't bode well for this team in the very near future! The sad reality of those stats is that it's proof the team in front of her has been dominated in their own zone (and in general) for her entire career. That is the real problem that needs to be fixed. They have gotten too comfortable in relying on her game after game season after season. The incoming recruits better be program changers!

On paper Ena Nystrom is almost her clone. Scandinavian, tall, and an unknown quantity coming in. And we know that coach Vines likes women named Ena. Amanda Rampado also has good stats, but Kira Bombay had better and never got the regular job.

The Cornell men went undefeated the year after Dryden left.

She will be quite hard to replace, but we will see.

 

[shelfit]

On paper Ena Nystrom is almost her clone. Scandinavian, tall, and an unknown quantity coming in. And we know that coach Vines likes women named Ena. Amanda Rampado also has good stats, but Kira Bombay had better and never got the regular job.

The Cornell men went undefeated the year after Dryden left.

She will be quite hard to replace, but we will see.

Are you being serious?! The Cornell men had a great team in front of their goalies way back then. The RPI women most definitely do not! Apples and oranges comparison there. You're really kidding yourself if you think there's any similarity between this program and those Cornell men's teams. This team needs much better talent outside the goaltending position! That is the biggest challenge ahead. To think otherwise is sheer ignorance. I'm very surprised by your response here Ralph. Plus it almost sounds like you're saying she's not going to be missed as much as most people think.

 

[Ralph Baer]

Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

Are you being serious?! The Cornell men had a great team in front of their goalies way back then. The RPI women most definitely do not! Apples and oranges comparison there. You're really kidding yourself if you think there's any similarity between this program and those Cornell men's teams. This team needs much better talent outside the goaltending position! That is the biggest challenge ahead. To think otherwise is sheer ignorance. I'm very surprised by your response here Ralph. Plus it almost sounds like you're saying she's not going to be missed as much as most people think.

Of course I was not being serious with the Cornell comparison, although Cornell indeed was undefeated the season after Dryden left. I had the misfortune of seeing Cornell demolish RPI that year at MSG in NYC. (But we did better in 70-71. )

I don't expect RPI to roll over dead next year. Coach Vines seems to be getting the most out of his players this year. We scored 5 goals vs. DC despite being without Repaci and Grigsby. That was not Selander's doing. There is no reason to think that he won't also get the most out of his players next year, even if the incoming goalies come nowhere near to Selander.

 

[shelfit]

Of course I was not being serious with the Cornell comparison, although Cornell indeed was undefeated the season after Dryden left. I had the misfortune of seeing Cornell demolish RPI that year at MSG in NYC. (But we did better in 70-71. )

I don't expect RPI to roll over dead next year. Coach Vines seems to be getting the most out of his players this year. We scored 5 goals vs. DC despite being without Repaci and Grigsby. That was not Selander's doing. There is no reason to think that he won't also get the most out of his players next year, even if the incoming goalies come nowhere near to Selander.

As long as he doesn't recruit any players who would be better off playing at the D3 level like his predecessor seemingly used to be content with adding to the roster, then the team will steadily improve, although I think it's still going to be a tough uphill climb every year for this program.

 

[Ralph Baer]

Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

As long as he doesn't recruit any players who would be better off playing at the D3 level like his predecessor seemingly used to be content with adding to the roster, then the team will steadily improve, although I think it's still going to be a tough uphill climb every year for this program.

I agree with that, but I have the gut feeling that there are some players on the team who are recruited walk-ons, used to fill out the roster. Judging by the current freshmen and Neutral Zones' rankings of our future players, I am not sure that Vines has changed that, although I could be wrong.

I also think that there is still a problem getting a lot of women interested in a technical education, and for some reason management doesn't seem to be as attractive to the women hockey players as it appears to be to the men.

 

[lugnut92]

Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

While the extra two points would have been incredibly helpful, beating Harvard wouldn't have guaranteed us a spot in the playoffs. I guess that's some consolation? We now head to a road weekend where one game is possible but kind of a reach and the other would take a miracle (a Loviracle?). Taking a point off Quinnipiac would lock that tiebreaker up, which would be a big deal.

RPI KRACH (RRWP): 60.39 (0.4000)

MCTs (Mean/Median/Mode/Range):
Points - 21.36 / 21 / 21 / 19 - 27
Rank - 6.87 / 7 / 7 / 4 - 9
Playoffs - 99.3% (Home - 1 in 100,000)
Most likely opponent - at Cornell (40.1%)

Conference Rankings:

1. Princeton
2. Cornell
3. Clarkson
4. Colgate
   —————
5. SLU
6. Harvard
7. RPI
8. Quinnipiac
   —————
   —————
9. Yale
10. Dartmouth
11. Brown
12. Union

This Weekend's Playoff Implications:

       |      Pr      |
_______|  W |  T |  L |
|  | W | IN | IN |>99%|
|Qu| T | IN |>99%|>99%|
|  | L |>99%|>99%| 99%|

(Note: I wrote "IN" in situations when we would have locked up a playoff spot. I might be wrong about these, but I'm pretty sure...)

RPI Points vs. Position:

   |     4     5     6     7     8     9
----------------------------------------    
19 |               0.0   2.3  [B]11.9[/B]   0.6
20 |               0.4   6.4   [B]6.5[/B]   0.1
21 |         0.0   4.8  [B]22.5[/B]   3.1   0.0
22 |         0.3   5.7  [B]10.1[/B]   0.4      
23 |         1.4  [B]10.1[/B]   4.6   0.0      
24 |         1.6   [B]3.1[/B]   0.5            
25 |         [B]1.6[/B]   1.2   0.0            
26 |         [B]0.3[/B]   0.1   0.0            
27 |   0.0   [B]0.1[/B]   0.0