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RPI Engineers 2018-2019

Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

lugnut92 said:
That's 37 per game for the uncontested record (if we get swept). Not a crazy number, especially if we keep giving up this many shots. If everything plays out according to our averages, she'll end up 9 short.
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and none of the games are going to be against easy opponents.
 
Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

We're in! We will definitely be on the road, but we could face pretty much anyone. That said, we will likely be facing one of these two teams again next week.

RPI KRACH (RRWP): 63.00 (0.4066)

MCTs (Mean/Median/Mode/Range):
Points - 21.98 / 22 / 21 / 21 - 25
Rank - 6.65 / 7 / 7 / 5 - 8
Playoffs - IN
Most likely opponent - at Cornell (39.6%)

Conference Rankings:
  1. Princeton
  2. Cornell
  3. Clarkson
  4. Colgate
    —————
  5. Harvard
  6. SLU
  7. RPI
  8. Quinnipiac
    —————
    —————
  9. Yale
  10. Dartmouth
  11. Brown
  12. Union

This Weekend's Playoff Implications:
Code: 
| Cr  Cg |Avg Rk| First Round Opp |
-----------------------------------
|      W | 5.00 |     Cg > Ck     |
|  W   T | 5.58 |Cg > Ck > Cr > Pr|
|      L | 5.92 |Cg > Cr > Ck > Pr|
-----------------------------------
|      W | 5.59 |Cg > Ck > Pr > Cr|
|  T   T | 5.95 |Cg > Ck > Cr > Pr|
|      L | 6.82 |Cr > Ck > Cg > Pr|
-----------------------------------
|      W | 5.92 |Ck > Cg > Pr > Cr|
|  L   T | 6.82 |Cr > Pr > Ck > Cg|
|      L | 7.21 |Cr > Pr > Ck > Cg|

RPI Points vs. Position:
Code: 
   |     5     6     7     8
----------------------------    
21 |         1.4  [B]34.7[/B]  11.3
22 |   0.7   3.7  [B]12.4[/B]   1.8
23 |   7.6  [B]13.2[/B]   5.4   0.1
24 |   [B]2.3[/B]   2.0   0.4      
25 |   [B]3.1[/B]
 
Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

Ralph Baer said:
Lovisa Selander was named one of the 10 finalists for the Patty Kazmaier Memorial Award https://rpiathletics.com/news/2019/...lander-is-patty-kazmaier-top-10-finalist.aspx.
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I feel like a downer saying it, but I feel like there's no way she's in the Hat Trick. If she puts up a couple 40-save shutouts this weekend and we end up fifth in the league, maybe, but I feel like she'll be pushed aside for someone with flashy offensive numbers on a team with a better-than-.500 record (yes I know if we win both, we'll be over .500 too). She's been amazing, but her .945 isn't unprecedented and is well below the .965 Ann-Renee Desbiens won with a couple years ago. Further, all three goalies to have won led teams with winning percentages in the .800s, not a .515 (at best).

I want her to win, but I fear the team is going to drag her down.
 
Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

lugnut92 said:
Further, all three goalies to have won led teams with winning percentages in the .800s, not a .515 (at best).
Click to expand...
All three played behind offenses that scored more than 1.31 goals per game. I agree that it will be tough for her to win, but I think that she's done what she could do.
 
lugnut92 said:
I feel like a downer saying it, but I feel like there's no way she's in the Hat Trick. If she puts up a couple 40-save shutouts this weekend and we end up fifth in the league, maybe, but I feel like she'll be pushed aside for someone with flashy offensive numbers on a team with a better-than-.500 record (yes I know if we win both, we'll be over .500 too). She's been amazing, but her .945 isn't unprecedented and is well below the .965 Ann-Renee Desbiens won with a couple years ago. Further, all three goalies to have won led teams with winning percentages in the .800s, not a .515 (at best).

I want her to win, but I fear the team is going to drag her down.
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A couple of zeros on the weekend would be nice however she has not been as efficient against the top 4 ECAC teams this year with the exception of last weekend’s stoning of Princeton. It would be nice to see more of that on the weekend. It could help her position herself in the top 3.
 
Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

ARM said:
All three played behind offenses that scored more than 1.31 goals per game. I agree that it will be tough for her to win, but I think that she's done what she could do.
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Sure. Obviously Lovisa can only do so much, but I wouldn't be surprised if the lack of team success was subconsiously held against her.
 
Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

Two losses and we're headed to Cornell.

Congratulations to Lovisa for hitting 4000. The undisputed record seems out of reach unless we can steal one.
 
Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

lugnut92 said:
Two losses and we're headed to Cornell.

Congratulations to Lovisa for hitting 4000. The undisputed record seems out of reach unless we can steal one.
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Should be doable. After all Cornell put 62 shots on Unions goalie today. ;)
 
Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

KRACH gives us a roughly 1-in-14 chance to advance and about 30% to force a game 3. Looking into the "reckless optimism" lens, we're about 70:1 against to make the final and 300:1 against to win the championship.

Just so you all know, I only just now updated my program to include the new NEWHA teams (i.e., not SHU) and Holy Cross. They are basically a non-factor, so I didn't bother until now. None of the calculations I did all year would have been significantly affected by their earlier inclusion. Fun fact: Post's KRACH is 2. They are not-good.

EDIT: I should say it gives us about a 30% chance to win at least one of the first two games. Included in that 30% is a sweep, which would not force game 3 but would ensure a third playoff game.
 
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Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

As much as I admire Lovisa, as perhaps our greatest ever player, I find this obsession with her saves record as being a bit disrespectful of the team. The objective here is not to maximize the number of shots on our own net. As unlikely as it might be, the entire focus here should be on pulling off an upset against one of the top teams in the country, or failing that, giving them a scare. And that will only be accomplished if we can minimize shots on net...and I'm quite sure Lovisa sees it the same way.
 
Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

hab said:
As much as I admire Lovisa, as perhaps our greatest ever player, I find this obsession with her saves record as being a bit disrespectful of the team. The objective here is not to maximize the number of shots on our own net. As unlikely as it might be, the entire focus here should be on pulling off an upset against one of the top teams in the country, or failing that, giving them a scare. And that will only be accomplished if we can minimize shots on net...and I'm quite sure Lovisa sees it the same way.
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No disrespect intended on my part. Just having a little fun which many of us do from time to time on this board.
 
Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

hab said:
As much as I admire Lovisa, as perhaps our greatest ever player, I find this obsession with her saves record as being a bit disrespectful of the team. The objective here is not to maximize the number of shots on our own net. As unlikely as it might be, the entire focus here should be on pulling off an upset against one of the top teams in the country, or failing that, giving them a scare. And that will only be accomplished if we can minimize shots on net...and I'm quite sure Lovisa sees it the same way.
Click to expand...

Very good point. I've felt for a few weeks that the record makes for perverse incentives where we want everyone on the team except for her to do poorly. I don't know if disrespectful is the word as I would use, but I definitely understand what you mean.

In the end, I want us to put together a few wins here and shock the world. That would undoubtedly include an all-world performance from Lovisa and some great play from the women in front of her. It's naïve to expect us to all of a sudden allow only 25 shots a game, but if we could keep it to 30 or so, we have a chance to actually make some noise.
 
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