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RPI Engineers 2018-2019

Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

Courtesy of Jim Hyla over at eLynah, the women's non-travel partner ECAC schedule for next season is attached to his post.
https://elf.elynah.com/read.php?1,219006,219006,page=1#msg-219006

11/1 SLU
11/2 Clarkson
11/8 @ Brown
11/9/ @ Yale
11/15 Quinnipiac
11/16 Princeton
12/6 @Clarkson
12/7 @SLU
1/3 @ Dartmouth
1/4 @Harvard
1/10 Colgate
1/11 Cornell
1/17 Yale
1/18 Brown
2/7 @Princeton
2/8 @Quinnipiac
2/14 Harvard
2/15 Dartmouth
2/21 @Cornell
2/22 @Colgate

Edit: Change https to http.
 
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Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

Tomorrow's a big test for the women. We're in 5th, Colgate's in 4th. It could say a lot towards who gets that last home slot (although SLU is by no means out of the hunt).
 
Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

Ralph Baer said:
A surprisingly high 29 saves in a 2-1 win over Union in the Mayor's Cup means that Selander needs 118 in 8 games, 14.75 per game.
Click to expand...

30 saves for LS in a 4-1 loss to Colgate. She needs 88 in 7 games, 12.57 per game.
 
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Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

Ralph Baer said:
30 saves for LS in a 4-1 lost to Colgate. She needs 88 in 7 games, 12.57 per game.
Click to expand...

48 saves for LS in a 5-0 loss at Cornell. She needs 40 in 6 games, 6.67 per game. The questions are will it be on Friday or Saturday, and will she then get to 4K.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">WH | Lovisa Selander turns in one one of the saves of the year at No. 6 Cornell! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RPIHockey?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#RPIHockey</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ECACHockey?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ECACHockey</a> <a href="https://t.co/yiIs0LsmKT">pic.twitter.com/yiIs0LsmKT</a></p>— RPI Athletics (@RPIAthletics) <a href="https://twitter.com/RPIAthletics/status/1091820052620296192?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 2, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Ralph Baer said:
48 saves for LS in a 5-0 loss at Cornell. She needs 40 in 6 games, 6.67 per game. The questions are will it be on Friday or Saturday, and will she then get to 4K.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">WH | Lovisa Selander turns in one one of the saves of the year at No. 6 Cornell! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RPIHockey?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#RPIHockey</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ECACHockey?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ECACHockey</a> <a href="https://t.co/yiIs0LsmKT">pic.twitter.com/yiIs0LsmKT</a></p>— RPI Athletics (@RPIAthletics) <a href="https://twitter.com/RPIAthletics/status/1091820052620296192?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 2, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Click to expand...

She’s an excellent goalie who seemingly has little help. RPI’s offense was nonexistent.
 
Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

Scoop85 said:
She’s an excellent goalie who seemingly has little help. RPI’s offense was nonexistent.
Click to expand...

That's the story of our season. We've been out-shot 207 to 68 over our last 5 games (outscored 11-5 in that time). It's insane.
 
Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

Well, getting swept pretty much ended our hopes of getting up to 4th or higher, but that's life. Our playoff odds ended up not moving at all, so all that changed is that we need the points this weekend a little more than we did before. Given that this is a home weekend, I think anything less than 3 points would be a disappointment. Also we should consider scoring goals and allowing fewer than 40 shots against.

RPI KRACH (RRWP): 62.49 (0.4066)

MCTs (Mean/Median/Mode/Range):
Points - 21.77 / 22 / 21 / 17 - 29
Rank - 6.40 / 6 / 6 / 4 - 10
Playoffs - 98.7% (Home - 0.2%)
Most likely opponent - at Clarkson (28.0%)

Conference Rankings:
  1. Princeton
  2. Cornell
  3. Clarkson
  4. Colgate
    —————
  5. SLU
  6. RPI
  7. Harvard
  8. Quinnipiac
    —————
    —————
  9. Yale
  10. Dartmouth
  11. Brown
  12. Union

This Weekend's Playoff Implications:
Code: 
       |      Da      |
_______|  W |  T |  L |
|  | W |100%|>99%|>99%|
|Ha| T |>99%| 99%| 97%|
|  | L | 99%| 97%| 92%|

Note: Again, I don't think hitting 21 points would guarantee a playoff spot, but the simulation did not encounter any instance of us sweeping this weekend and missing the playoffs.

RPI Points vs. Position:
Code: 
   |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12
----------------------------------------------------------------------------    
17 |                                       0.0   [B]0.9[/B]   0.4   0.0            
18 |                                 0.0   0.3   [B]1.9[/B]   0.4                  
19 |                           0.0   0.2   3.5   [B]5.9[/B]   0.4                  
20 |                           0.0   1.4   [B]6.5[/B]   3.6   0.1                  
21 |                           0.4   8.2  [B]11.0[/B]   1.8   0.0                  
22 |                           1.6  [B]10.1[/B]   4.8   0.2                        
23 |                           5.4  [B]11.0[/B]   1.3   0.0                        
24 |                     0.0   [B]4.5   4.5[/B]   0.1                              
25 |                     0.0   [B]4.7[/B]   1.7   0.0                              
26 |                     0.0   [B]1.7[/B]   0.3                                    
27 |                     0.1   [B]0.8[/B]   0.0                                    
28 |                     0.0   [B]0.1[/B]   0.0                                    
29 |                     0.0   0.0
 
Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

We need to get some points this weekend as the last two weekends will be more difficult.
 
Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">.<a href="https://twitter.com/RPI_WHockey?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@RPI_WHockey</a> goaltender Lovisa Selander is just 40 saves away from making NCAA history. Check it out! <a href="https://t.co/wFUJqiBwwZ">https://t.co/wFUJqiBwwZ</a></p>— Ashley Miller (@Miller247Time) <a href="https://twitter.com/Miller247Time/status/1093570164908539904?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 7, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

I hadn't realized that Lovisa will still trail the number set by Lindenwood's Nicole Hensley, who had 4,094 saves, but her first season was only provisionally in D-I. It's very unlikely that she would be able to reach that mark unless we win in the first round. She is currently averaging 34 saves per game, meaning she would need 9-10 more games at that clip to eclipse 4,094.

If she gets 40 more, she will have the D-I record as understood right now, but I wouldn't be shocked if at some point in the future Hensley's achievement is given precedence.
 
Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

Ralph Baer said:
We need to get some points this weekend as the last two weekends will be more difficult.
Click to expand...

Yes. I am not at all comfortable with Lugnut's calculation that we have a 98.7% probability of making the playoffs. For Yale (currently 9th) to overtake RPI they would need to gain 5 points in 6 remaining games (4 points would tie with RPI but the Engineers would win the tie-breaker). Yale and RPI play exactly the same 6 teams over the next 3 weekends and both have 4 home games. I have trouble seeing either team beating Cornell, Colgate or Princeton, but games against Dartmouth, Quinnipiac and Harvard are winnable for either team, so this weekend against Dartmouth and Harvard is big.
 
Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

hab said:
Yes. I am not at all comfortable with Lugnut's calculation that we have a 98.7% probability of making the playoffs. For Yale (currently 9th) to overtake RPI they would need to gain 5 points in 6 remaining games (4 points would tie with RPI but the Engineers would win the tie-breaker). Yale and RPI play exactly the same 6 teams over the next 3 weekends and both have 4 home games. I have trouble seeing either team beating Cornell, Colgate or Princeton, but games against Dartmouth, Quinnipiac and Harvard are winnable for either team, so this weekend against Dartmouth and Harvard is big.
Click to expand...

From the most surface level, we are favored over Dartmouth and Quinnipiac, while Yale is only favored over Dartmouth (despite this, both teams are expected to earn 4 more points). The scary thing in all of this is that if Lovisa at any point stops being a brick wall, we're basically toast. Games against those three teams were actually not too lopsided in shots (78-94 against), but we only scored three goals across them.

I have felt for a while that KRACH is not a great tool for evaluating us this season. We are regularly skated out of the rink and only kept alive by Selander, but KRACH only sees the W at the end of the line. That said, Lovisa is a part of the team and the .943 SV% she has this season is not too far out of her career average so there's no reason to expect it to stop.

I'll feel much better with 4 points and at least that many goals scored this weekend.
 
Re: RPI Engineers 2018-2019

ARM said:
Another possible tool for evaluating you, where your offense ranks 35th out of 35, but your D is 22nd and you're 30th overall:
http://it.stlawu.edu/~chodr/wchodr/current.html

This math is likely shortchanging the Engineers as well, but you can see the predictions for this weekend here:
http://it.stlawu.edu/~chodr/wchodr/next.html
Click to expand...

Oof. The defensive rating in CHODR does inherently account for goaltending, so I guess it would be better. My one quibble is that I'm not sure that it's true that goal scoring is best modeled by a Poisson distribution, or rather I don't know how well you can apply the same factors for the distribution to every team. That said, as much as I post about them on here, math and statistics aren't actually my areas of expertise, so I don't know how much I can critique CHODR after 15 minutes of thought. My anecdote-biased brain seems to say that scoring rates are dependent on score state more than a Poisson distribution would allow for. That we have an .833 win percentage when we score first (as opposed to 0.076 when trailing first) would suggest that there is something not-truly-random to scoring rates in our games.

As a note: KRACH has us at 24th overall, which does seem high to me.
 
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