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RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

Basically...what needs to happen to get 5 ECAC teams into the NCAAs

AHA: Niagara wins tournament

CCHA: Miami beats OSU in final

HEA: Lowell or BC win title

ECAC: Brown beats Union in final.

WCHA: Minnesota, St. Cloud, NoDak OR MSU win title. As long as neither CC nor Wisconsin win it, it's cool.

Lots of stuff to happen, but it's certainly possible if the lower ECAC seeds win their games and the top ones do so as well in the other league. I also think that if ND beats OSU, they're in, which would knock off RPI in such a scenario.
 
Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

RHamilton said:
I'm around :)

Spent most of Monday flying home from Troy. Rewrote my program from scratch so it's much (much) quicker. Should have some weighted numbers by tomorrow AM. I'm not sure why JimDahl hasn't bothered weighting -- it's quite trivial compared to generating each pairwise result.

I'm also hoping to drill down a bit about what games are must wins -- I hope to release a small webapp that will let you choose games and get odds/chances based on the results from only a couple games with a ui similar to the Pairwise Predictor. If its performance is good enough (it'll be quite database intensive), I'll have that up tomorrow, too.
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Good to hear that you are going to do that again. Dahl claimed in one of his posts on his website that more people were interested in the unweighted results, which I find as odd.
 
Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

Ralph Baer said:
Good to hear that you are going to do that again. Dahl claimed in one of his posts on his website that more people were interested in the unweighted results, which I find as odd.
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Probably because since it's one game, anything can happen.
 
Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

jmhusker said:
Again the disclaimer that this is just a rough estimate but the probability of 3+ PWR flips from that simple analysis turns out to be 46.5%. I've ignored the impact of Michigan falling out independent of a ND loss. This is a very possible occurrence which in itself also flips the ND comparison. So 46.5 is no doubt understated.
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Or maybe it isn't. I just noticed that we cannot flip the Wisco PWR comparison unless either CC or St. Cloud win the WCHA. Clearly we'd prefer St. Cloud. Whichever it is, this leads to a few changes:

- Chance of flipping our PWR with Wisconsin: 7.5% (boo!)
- Expected # of flips: 1.8
- Probability of flipping 3 or more: 24.6%

Not the coin toss I had thought but it is a lot better than 8% and the actual probability should be higher - we'll see what the RHamilton numbers show. For now... at least FDUDE can gloat about how we have a better shot at the tourney than Brown does - even though we don't control our destiny.
 
Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

RHamilton said:
Sure, but I think providing both weighted and unweighted results allows "analysts" to draw better conclusions.
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Good point.

BTW, does RPI-TV plan on subjecting us to six minutes of goal horn again? At least you won't have to cheat with the end of game winner this time around. :eek::D
 
Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

FlagDUDE08 said:
BTW, does RPI-TV plan on subjecting us to six minutes of goal horn again? At least you won't have to cheat with the end of game winner this time around. :eek::D
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Yes! It came up a couple times this weekend, so I expect it to trickle out within a couple weeks.

There are concerns that it might be hard to fit all of the goals in a six minutes video. Of course, the six minute duration of the first video was completely arbitrary, but two years is apparently enough to create a tradition.
 
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Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

RHamilton said:
two years is apparently enough to create a tradition.
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Reminds me of an instructive story...

a young girl is helping her mother in the kitchen, and notices that the mother slices the roast a certain way.

"Mom, why do you slice the roast that way?"
-- because that's how my mother used to do it.

Later, the young girl is visiting her grandmother, and notices that she too also slices the roast in a certain way.

"Grandma, why do you slice the roast that way?"
-- because that's how my mother used to do it.

and so the young girl goes to visit her great-grandmother, and brings some pictures of the family meal along to share with her.

"oh, great-grandma, why did you slice the roast that way?"
-- because that's the only way I could get it to fit into the roasting pan we had way back then.
 
Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

Been busy the last few days but I want to thank the team for their play in the 2nd half of the season... to date. Let's wait and see what happens next. So practice, one day at a time. Be attentive to details and skate your game. Good things come to those who wait.
 
Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

More practice time for guys is a good thing , what happens if there's a 3 way tie for last seed?
 
Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

rvd5star69 said:
More practice time for guys is a good thing , what happens if there's a 3 way tie for last seed?
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All ties are broken by RatingsPI, or so we think. It's a little unclear what the committee's process is, and this could very well be the first year that the PWR does not accurately predict who makes the tournament.
 
Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

FlagDUDE08 said:
All ties are broken by RatingsPI, or so we think. It's a little unclear what the committee's process is, and this could very well be the first year that the PWR does not accurately predict who makes the tournament.
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Why do you think that is more likely this year than in the past?
 
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Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

Ralph Baer said:
Why do you think that is ore likely this year than in the past?
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I don't think we've had a tie for in/out in the past. We've had ties before, but the committee has broken the ties through several different means. There's more of a description in the pairwise thread.
 
Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

FlagDUDE08 said:
I don't think we've had a tie for in/out in the past. We've had ties before, but the committee has broken the ties through several different means. There's more of a description in the pairwise thread.
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Even if that is the case, the odds are that it will change by Sunday.
 
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