RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

[Ralph Baer]

Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

How about an ECAC championship?

Good point.

 

[aweise]

Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

Thanks AW - classy post. Good luck in the tourney....hope you kick the crap out if Bruno, if it comes to that...

It very well may come in the consolation game, but I'm sure Union will do their best to do just that.

At the moment, I'm more concerned with Union trying to kick the crap out of Yale.

 

[hawthr]

Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

I watched the post-game video last night after I got home...you can tell how much this one hurt Apps.

http://youtu.be/pYnXwWXBQxU

 

[johnk]

Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

A couple of thoughts now that I have had some time to digest my St Patricks Day celebration being interupted by a very depressing hockey game:

First, I cant believe I have to come home and get on this thread last night and see that pile of s h i t Hokydad posting his pleasure in another teams misery. Complete blowhard!

Next, congratulations to Brown. A hard working team with a very good goalie. Good luck!

Now focusing on RPI. This is the best team we have seen in the Appert era. For the most part they are underclassmen with alot of upside. The style of play, the forecheck and the breakout of the defensive zone all improved as the season went on and that is what you look for. Even losing 2 out of 3 to Brown, I feel they probably outplayed them 120-130 of the 180 minutes.

Lastly, I don't expect them to get into the NCAA's but there are plenty of scenarios that put RPI in 15 or 16 so lets see what happens. If not, the future looks brighter than it has in a while and next years schedule has some nice NC games to look forward to.

 

[Ralph Baer]

Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

Where we finish in all 2^17 * 3 possible scenarios. (The 3 is because the ECAC consolation game can end in a tie.) http://blog.siouxsports.com/2013/03/18/2143/ Although we finish at 16th or higher in over 40% of the scenarios, in many case there are auto qualifiers. No weighting has been done.

 

[fishcore12]

Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

Hate to see the season end so soon, but what a stretch of hockey we were treated to in the second half. The future looks good and this minor bump on the path to where as a fanbase, we feel RPI should be at, will be all worth it at the end of the journey. I enjoyed every second of the 2012-2013 season. Got to meet some great people along the way, share some laughs, a few or more beers, and once again got reminded of why I love college hockey.

 

[jmhusker]

Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

Where we finish in all 2^17 * 3 possible scenarios. (The 3 is because the ECAC consolation game can end in a tie.) http://blog.siouxsports.com/2013/03/18/2143/ Although we finish at 16th or higher in over 40% of the scenarios, in many case there are auto qualifiers. No weighting has been done.

Hmmmm.... sounds like we have more than a "not good" chance after all! All of those auto-qualifiers are by definition the less likely scenarios. Coin toss?

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

Hmmmm.... sounds like we have more than a "not good" chance after all! All of those auto-qualifiers are by definition the less likely scenarios. Coin toss?

16th with auto qualifiers means we don't get in.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

You know, something came to mind... Along with Coach Appert's ability to recruit, he must also have some crystal ball into getting us to play teams that would get us in a position to even be talking about the national tournament after losing early in a league tournament, and in the rebuilding years, somehow picking Frozen Four teams to play in order to show the team what kind of level they should be expecting to play. These two things are the reasons why I will not touch the "Fire Appert" bandwagon, and in my indubitable fashion, shoot flaming arrows at it.

The phrase just below my screen name could not ring ever more true.

 

[jmhusker]

Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

16th with auto qualifiers means we don't get in.

I know that. My point is that those auto-qualifiers are the less likely scenarios of the 42% of the time that we finish 16 and above. I'm willing to bet that the same is true several times over for the 58% of the time we finish lower than 16. The question here is what is likely to happen not what are all of the possibilities? I think it is much higher than an 8% chance. Someone needs to run the numbers for real.

 

[DavidSec17]

Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

Hate to see the season end so soon, but what a stretch of hockey we were treated to in the second half. The future looks good and this minor bump on the path to where as a fanbase, we feel RPI should be at, will be all worth it at the end of the journey. I enjoyed every second of the 2012-2013 season. Got to meet some great people along the way, share some laughs, a few or more beers, and once again got reminded of why I love college hockey.

Been trying to digest what happened last night and this season all day today, and I really couldnt have said it any better than this. It's been a exciting last few months with this team, hate to see it end(If we dont get a bid) Saw a lot of great wins, at home and on the road(Colgate, and met Fishcore there as well). Watching these guys streak up the stndings and knowing that most of them are returning is a promising feeling going into the offseason. We will have Tinordi and Schroeder back as well. THe seinors will be missed. They were really strong for us during this run. Lee took the team on his back it seemed, showed lots of heart.

Thanks to the Colgate, Brown, and Union posters for your kind words as well.

 

[RPI fan 4 life]

Been trying to digest what happened last night and this season all day today, and I really couldnt have said it any better than this. It's been a exciting last few months with this team, hate to see it end(If we dont get a bid) Saw a lot of great wins, at home and on the road(Colgate, and met Fishcore there as well). Watching these guys streak up the stndings and knowing that most of them are returning is a promising feeling going into the offseason. We will have Tinordi and Schroeder back as well. THe seinors will be missed. They were really strong for us during this run. Lee took the team on his back it seemed, showed lots of heart.

Thanks to the Colgate, Brown, and Union posters for your kind words as well.

Well put, David. The seniors indeed will be missed (especially Bailen and Lee) and it should be interesting to see how the new freshman class can gel in with all the returning players. I really can't see this team getting an NCAA at large bid, unfortunately, so I just have to say that it was a fantastic second half of the season and I just hated to see it end. Perhaps this playoff loss will give this team the incentive to make the 2013-14 team something very very special.

And screech stays in the box until next season... *sniff*

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

I really can't see this team getting an NCAA at large bid, unfortunately

Why's that?

 

[hawthr]

Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

I honestly thought this would be the year we make a run, for completely inane reasons. I've had this thought for a couple of months now - I leave for Europe for 3 weeks this Friday. Once I realized I managed to book my travel to leave the day of the semifinals, and return 2 hours before the national championship, I kind of figured we'd at least make it to AC, since there'd be no way I could pull off going.

Holding out hope for an at-large bid. If we do make it, I'll find some way to listen to the game while traveling through Germany that weekend.

While last night's game did not end how we wanted, I have so much respect for this team - they just kept pushing to get that equalizer. I only wish it came for them.

 

[Saints#1]

Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

I've been playing around with the pairwise predictor and honestly, you guys have a decent shot at getting into the tournament. You just better hope that the teams that should win their league championship do win their league championship

 

[RPI92]

This is close to being right. Definitely looking for a pair of Union losses in AC, or at least a loss to Yale and a tie in the consolation game. And we're rooting for higher seeds almost across the board, which is not a bad spot to be in.

The OSU-ND game is a little bit dicey. Could go either way on that, Notre Dame would drop anyway as long as Miami beats Michigan (and eliminates the Wolverines as a TUC). Under the best conditions, RPI can get away with having an upset tournament winner (13th being a possibility means they could make the tournament even with as many as 3 upsets out of 5), but Miami/Notre Dame would pretty much guarantee that wouldn't happen.

Colorado College beating North Dakota means you're losing a bit of insurance in a league where there are a number of options that wouldn't be considered upset winners.

Also, I'd take Mercyhurst over UConn, only because I have yet to find a scenario where Robert Morris makes the tournament at RPI's expense, and Mercyhurst was an opponent this year (their wins provide more of an RPI boost).

FWIW, the "non-upset" tournament champions are as follows:
AHA: Niagara
CCHA: Miami or Notre Dame
ECAC: Quinnipiac or Yale
HEA: UMass-Lowell or Boston College
WCHA: St. Cloud State, Minnesota, North Dakota, or Minnesota State.

Basically, rooting for these teams wherever possible, plus a few other things elsewhere (with the noted possible exception of Notre Dame). Yale, Lowell, and BC are especially important, given the teams they are playing next. Minnesota State winning would be very nice, too.

As an aside, Brown winning the ECAC tournament would wreck the entire bracket pretty good, owing to the fact that they are hosting the Providence regional.

Robert Morris came out ahead of RPI in a few scenarios I ran. I think it was where Minnesota State went on to win the WCHA?

 

[RPI92]

I know that. My point is that those auto-qualifiers are the less likely scenarios of the 42% of the time that we finish 16 and above. I'm willing to bet that the same is true several times over for the 58% of the time we finish lower than 16. The question here is what is likely to happen not what are all of the possibilities? I think it is much higher than an 8% chance. Someone needs to run the numbers for real.

Guys, we just went through this last year. I remember that one of our fine engineers wrote a software program to figure all this out. Where's that guy?

 

[RKarger]

Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

Guys, we just went through this last year. I remember that one of our fine engineers wrote a software program to figure all this out. Where's that guy?

I believe you're looking for RHamilton. Not sure how to get in touch with him, but yeah, I'd love to see his take on our chances.

 

[LTsatch]

Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

These are the odds per Jim Dahl aka SiouxSports
#13 0.3%
#14 1.8%
#15 9.8%
#16 31.2%
#17 31.9%
#18 17.3%
#19 6.0%
#20 1.5%
#21 0.2%
Tournament invites: 8.2%

 

[Ralph Baer]

Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

These are the odds per Jim Dahl aka SiouxSports
#13 0.3%
#14 1.8%
#15 9.8%
#16 31.2%
#17 31.9%
#18 17.3%
#19 6.0%
#20 1.5%
#21 0.2%
Tournament invites: 8.2%

It should be stated that there is no weighting of those odds by how likely each scenario is.