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RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

I found another scenario where the ECAC can get 5 teams in. This would involve Brown winning the ECAC Championship. Quinnipiac #1, Yale #7, Union and RPI tied for 14th.
 
Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

Saints#1 said:
I found another scenario where the ECAC can get 5 teams in. This would involve Brown winning the ECAC Championship. Quinnipiac #1, Yale #7, Union and RPI tied for 14th.
Click to expand...
So we'd be in 15th? And Brown is the only team in that scenario not in the top 16 to win their conference? That would be cool, having almost half the conference make the tournament!
 
Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

REDaero91 said:
So we'd be in 15th? And Brown is the only team in that scenario not in the top 16 to win their conference? That would be cool, having almost half the conference make the tournament!
Click to expand...

If only to see all the western fans' heads explode!
 
Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

REDaero91 said:
So we'd be in 15th? And Brown is the only team in that scenario not in the top 16 to win their conference? That would be cool, having almost half the conference make the tournament!
Click to expand...
And with ECAC teams in 14th, 15th, and 16th, QU would have to play #13. :)
 
Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

REDaero91 said:
So we'd be in 15th? And Brown is the only team in that scenario not in the top 16 to win their conference? That would be cool, having almost half the conference make the tournament!
Click to expand...

Correct! :)
 
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Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

Ralph Baer said:
And with ECAC teams in 14th, 15th, and 16th, QU would have to play #13. :)
Click to expand...

I had a dream like that once-5 ECAC teams in the tournament-and then one of the cats jumped up on me and scratched me so I woke up.;) I don't think i could even imagine what the odds of that kind of finish would be. I might as well go buy a few Powerballl lottery tickets instead. I think the odds could be a bit lower.:eek:
 
Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

DrDemento said:
I had a dream like that once-5 ECAC teams in the tournament-and then one of the cats jumped up on me and scratched me so I woke up.;) I don't think i could even imagine what the odds of that kind of finish would be. I might as well go buy a few Powerballl lottery tickets instead. I think the odds could be a bit lower.:eek:
Click to expand...

Actually it involved most of the teams predicted to win winning and Brown capturing the ECAC championship. Not too far of a stretch in all reality :eek:
 
Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

Saints#1 said:
Actually it involved most of the teams predicted to win winning and Brown capturing the ECAC championship. Not too far of a stretch in all reality :eek:
Click to expand...

It wouldn't surprise me at all if Brown were to beat Q-Pac. They did tie twice.
 
Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

FlagDUDE08 said:
It wouldn't surprise me at all if Brown were to beat Q-Pac. They did tie twice.
Click to expand...

I have been playing around with this same scenario and trying to flip it around and see if there is a way another upset still gets all 5 teams in. I haven't found a way yet, so it looks like Brown would have to be the only not top 16 team to win.
 
Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

So I've been using Krach to generate some numbers on the individual tournament outcomes. Below are some probabilities for scenarios that are of the most interest to us:

1. Niagara wins AHA, eliminating the risk of an autobid to teams ranked <16: 45.9%
2. Union finishes 4th, flipping our PWR with them: 28.3%
3. Brown doesn't win the ECAC and an autobid: 89.7%
4. MIchigan loses CCHA Semi-final, possibly falling below the TUC line: 68.9%
5. Notre Dame loses CCHA Semi, (which combined with #4 should drop them below us in PWR): 36.0%
6. Miami or Notre Dame win the CCHA, eliminating autobid to teams <16: 73.8%
7. BU loses in HE semis, flipping PWR with us: 60.9%
8. BU doesn't win HE, likely flipping the pwr with us: 82.9%
9. PC Semi Final loss, flipping our PWR with them: 58.2%
10. PC doesn't win HE and an autobid: 81.3%
11. Wisconsin eliminated in the 1st round, flipping our PWR with them: 57.6%
12. Wisconsin doesn't make WCHA final, limiting PWR increase for them and keeping flip with us possible: 80.4%
13. Wisco doesn't win WCHA: 92.7%
14. CC Does not win WCHA, no autobid for team<16: 96.2%

Those are most of the events of interest to us (if not all). From these numbers we can generate a few estimates on other things of interest, like:
  • Probability of no autobids for teams<16: 1*3*6*10*13*14: 22.0%
  • Expected # of PWR flips: 2.3
  • Probability of flipping all 5 PWR chances (Wisco, NotD, BU, PC & U): 2.3%
I'd like to see 3 or more PWR flips. Since 2.3 is expected... it seems like we have a reasonable shot at that. I will calculate it when I get a chance.

Disclaimer: This is a simplified analysis of specific events and ignores the impacts and second or third order impacts of many other events. The idea is to present rough estimates and give a flavor for what our chances look like.
 
Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

RKarger said:
I believe you're looking for RHamilton. Not sure how to get in touch with him, but yeah, I'd love to see his take on our chances.
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I'm around :)

Spent most of Monday flying home from Troy. Rewrote my program from scratch so it's much (much) quicker. Should have some weighted numbers by tomorrow AM. I'm not sure why JimDahl hasn't bothered weighting -- it's quite trivial compared to generating each pairwise result.

I'm also hoping to drill down a bit about what games are must wins -- I hope to release a small webapp that will let you choose games and get odds/chances based on the results from only a couple games with a ui similar to the Pairwise Predictor. If its performance is good enough (it'll be quite database intensive), I'll have that up tomorrow, too.
 
Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

Saints#1 said:
Actually it involved most of the teams predicted to win winning and Brown capturing the ECAC championship. Not too far of a stretch in all reality :eek:
Click to expand...

Here's the one that took me to it....


Your Picks
Atlantic Hockey

Semifinal #2: Connecticut defeats Mercyhurst
Semifinal #1: Niagara defeats Canisius
Championship game: Niagara defeats Connecticut

CCHA

Semifinal #2: Ohio State defeats Notre Dame
Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Michigan
Championship game: Miami defeats Ohio State

ECAC

Semifinal #2: Union defeats Yale
Semifinal #1: Brown defeats Quinnipiac
Championship game: Brown defeats Union
Consolation game: Quinnipiac defeats Yale

Hockey East

Semifinal #2: Boston College defeats Boston University
Semifinal #1: Massachusetts-Lowell defeats Providence
Championship game: Massachusetts-Lowell defeats Boston College

WCHA

Play-in #2: North Dakota defeats Colorado College
Play-in #1: Wisconsin defeats Minnesota State
Semifinal #2: Minnesota defeats North Dakota
Semifinal #1: St. Cloud State defeats Wisconsin
Championship game: St. Cloud State defeats Minnesota

Holy crap...seems like as long as it's Brown beating Union specifically in the final, and no extreme upsets in the other tournaments...we'd be getting 5 teams in...extreme meaning, it's fine if BC beats Lowell in the final or Minnesota beats St. Cloud or if St. Cloud loses to Wisconsin or NoDak beats Minny, or if Mercyhurst beats UConn. Probably the most important matchup would be OSU beating Notre Dame.
 
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Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

jmhusker said:
I'd like to see 3 or more PWR flips. Since 2.3 is expected... it seems like we have a reasonable shot at that. I will calculate it when I get a chance.
Click to expand...
Again the disclaimer that this is just a rough estimate but the probability of 3+ PWR flips from that simple analysis turns out to be 46.5%. I've ignored the impact of Michigan falling out independent of a ND loss. This is a very possible occurrence which in itself also flips the ND comparison. So 46.5 is no doubt understated.
 
Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

hockeyenthusiast said:
Here's the one that took me to it....


Your Picks
Atlantic Hockey

Semifinal #2: Connecticut defeats Mercyhurst
Semifinal #1: Niagara defeats Canisius
Championship game: Niagara defeats Connecticut

CCHA

Semifinal #2: Ohio State defeats Notre Dame
Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Michigan
Championship game: Miami defeats Ohio State

ECAC

Semifinal #2: Union defeats Yale
Semifinal #1: Brown defeats Quinnipiac
Championship game: Brown defeats Union
Consolation game: Quinnipiac defeats Yale

Hockey East

Semifinal #2: Boston College defeats Boston University
Semifinal #1: Massachusetts-Lowell defeats Providence
Championship game: Massachusetts-Lowell defeats Boston College

WCHA

Play-in #2: North Dakota defeats Colorado College
Play-in #1: Wisconsin defeats Minnesota State
Semifinal #2: Minnesota defeats North Dakota
Semifinal #1: St. Cloud State defeats Wisconsin
Championship game: St. Cloud State defeats Minnesota
Click to expand...

This is essentially what I had too ... Yale/Quinnipiac consolation game wouldn't change anything if you flipped it Yale and the WCHA games don't change much after the first rounds either.
 
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