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Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

OnMAA said:
Just looked at the MC pairings comparisons, and my conclusion is that if both Wisco and UMD finish strongly, and MC has a lapse or two, MC could very wellfall out of the top 8. With their loss to Cornell last night, they are now losing that comparison, they they were winning before last night. MC is currently ahead in pairings with UMD and Wisco, but in both cases the numbers arfe very close. If for example UMD manages to steal a point or two from Minny this weekend, it would make things very interesting.
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I really don't think Mercyhurst vs. the other 4 WCHA bubble teams is all that close. Mercyhurst has a .0200+ RPI edge and a common opponents edge over the all WCHA bubble teams. A .0200+ RPI is like a two-game lead in conventional standings roughly, so I think you'd need Mercyhurst to stumble two more times than two of those WCHA bubble teams. Is there a chance that could happen? Sure, but not very likely given the parity between those four WCHA teams and that some of them play Minnesota again. At the very least the gap between No. 7 and No. 8 is much larger than it has been it most seasons (an exception I recall is 2006, when Mercyhurst was 7 and BC was a very distant 8th, and eventually got knocked off the bubble by the ECAC champion Harvard). So I don't see Mercyhurst falling out of the top 8 in the PWR, so they're probably safe barring the possibility of autobids coming outside the top 8.
 
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

10 or more losses does not an attractive NCAA post season resume make. All of the WCHA bubble teams already face or probably will face this hurdle.
 
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

Just wondering what you guys think....if Clarkson and Cornell win out but Harvard wins ECAC, will all 3 teams make top-8?
 
pakidnyc said:
Just wondering what you guys think....if Clarkson and Cornell win out but Harvard wins ECAC, will all 3 teams make top-8?
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They don't even have to win out, all 3 are pretty solidly in at this point I think.

I guess Clarkson could have a catastrophic end of the year and fall just barely out but I would be shocked.
 
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

A simple upset in of the auto bids will can move the 8th seed out. For instance a team ranked 10th or 12th (say Northeastern) wins their league championship.
 
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

The committee wouldn't have too much difficulty with this one:

#8 North Dakota @ #1 Minnesota
#7 Mercyhurst @ #2 Boston College
#6 Clarkson @ #3 Cornell
#5 Harvard @ #4 Boston University

#6 and #7 are easily swapped in favor of:

#8 North Dakota @ #1 Minnesota
#6 Clarkson @ #2 Boston College
#7 Mercyhurst @ #3 Cornell
#5 Harvard @ #4 Boston University

Which gives us just the one basically required WCHA intraconference matchup and no others, and the elusive ZERO FLIGHTS.
 
TonyTheTiger20 said:
The committee wouldn't have too much difficulty with this one:

#8 North Dakota @ #1 Minnesota
#7 Mercyhurst @ #2 Boston College
#6 Clarkson @ #3 Cornell
#5 Harvard @ #4 Boston University

#6 and #7 are easily swapped in favor of:

#8 North Dakota @ #1 Minnesota
#6 Clarkson @ #2 Boston College
#7 Mercyhurst @ #3 Cornell
#5 Harvard @ #4 Boston University

Which gives us just the one basically required WCHA intraconference matchup and no others, and the elusive ZERO FLIGHTS.
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Still not thrilled with an intraconference matchup, but there's really no way around that. My surprise was that the Pairwise Ranking and the KRACH (after removing Holy Cross) were completely aligned for the Top 12 following the Beanpot semis.
 
CrazyDave said:
Still not thrilled with an intraconference matchup, but there's really no way around that. My surprise was that the Pairwise Ranking and the KRACH (after removing Holy Cross) were completely aligned for the Top 12 following the Beanpot semis.
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I don't disagree with your prediction BUT what happens if 1 or more autobid is won by anyone other than the ECAC/Big East/WCHA teams you have listed? For example, like last year SLU upsets Cornell in ECAC finals. Or like tonight where Northeastern win big over BU. who gets displaced?
 
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

pakidnyc said:
I don't disagree with your prediction BUT what happens if 1 or more autobid is won by anyone other than the ECAC/Big East/WCHA teams you have listed? For example, like last year SLU upsets Cornell in ECAC finals. Or like tonight where Northeastern win big over BU. who gets displaced?
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Based on the Pairwise individual comparisons as they are today (which are subject to change in the 5 weekends before the NCAA tournament selection, of course), Clarkson owns the RPI, Teams Under Consideration, and Common Opponents comparisons over Mercyhurst, and the same holds true for Mercyhurst over North Dakota. Given that, North Dakota would clearly be the first to go if a lower-rated team were to get an autobid, and I have to believe the committee would have no choice but to send that lower team to Minnesota at this point.
 
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

Absolutely. With how far apart 1 & 2 as well as 7 & 8 would be they would be as well obligated to protect the #1 seed as they ever would be.
 
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

CrazyDave said:
Based on the Pairwise individual comparisons as they are today (which are subject to change in the 5 weekends before the NCAA tournament selection, of course), Clarkson owns the RPI, Teams Under Consideration, and Common Opponents comparisons over Mercyhurst, and the same holds true for Mercyhurst over North Dakota. Given that, North Dakota would clearly be the first to go if a lower-rated team were to get an autobid, and I have to believe the committee would have no choice but to send that lower team to Minnesota at this point.
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So if let's say NE wins HE, a more likely scenario than a team other than Harvard, Clarkson or Cornell winning the ECAC, you could end up with only one WCHA team in the tournament. Don't think anyone would have predicted that. This means all the WCHA teams are victimized by the utter domination of one team, while they beat up on each other.
 
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

Good point about the WCHA teams. Minnesota has been a wrecking ball to all the other conference teams, especially Wisconsin, UND, and UMD hanging 4 losses on them. Ohio State has a chance (probabably somewhere between slim and none) of gaining a win against Minnesota which could help their cause.
 
FiveHoleFrenzy said:
Good point about the WCHA teams. Minnesota has been a wrecking ball to all the other conference teams, especially Wisconsin, UND, and UMD hanging 4 losses on them. Ohio State has a chance (probabably somewhere between slim and none) of gaining a win against Minnesota which could help their cause.
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No they don't.

lol
 
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

OnMAA said:
This means all the WCHA teams are victimized by the utter domination of one team, while they beat up on each other.
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I agree that's part of the story, but certainly far from the whole story. It's not just about these teams being unlucky to be in a good conference.

So the reasons why WCHA is in danger of having one bid are as follows
-- Yes, Minnesota is undefeated. But the difference between that and some of the dominant WCHA leaders of the past is not huge.
-- Yes, there's more parity between teams 2 through 5 than there has been in the past

But the additional factors are as follows, some of which fall under the WCHA just not doing as well in nonconference play as in the past
-- A lot more teams played a lot of games against Lindenwood, and these add up to less than the value of beating the alternative kind of teams that usually boosted WCHA teams' ratings
-- Teams 6-8 didn't do great in noncon play, like 1-2-1 vs. Providence and 0-1-1 vs. Maine, and then lots of wins vs. Lindenwood, and then you factor in that teams 2-5 have lost to teams 6-8 more than a few times, at least as much or more than usual
-- Teams 2-5 didn't do as great in noncon play themselves. UMD went .500 against BC and BU which is good but in other years the best contender for the 2nd slot might have done better. Wisconsin always plays a worthless noncon schedule, but is never really hurt by it, but not so this season. And then you had OSU split Princeton who isn't very good.
-- To their credit the seven teams above the rest of the WCHA haven't lost as many games as they shouldn't in past years. In the past you have had No. 2 & 3 in the ECAC be somewhat mediocre, and these teams still have some slip-ups, but they've been much better in recent years.

So yes, some of the current national standing has to do with the distribution of power within the WCHA, but the conference's mediocre nonconference performance relative to the recent past is a major factor too.

Also, I suspect that if the WCHA had more games against some mid-tier eastern teams, they would've proven to be better than they look now -- but fact is they were mediocre, and so these teams look relatively mediocre in the national standings. On the same token, I think there are other years where the WCHA wins all those games against mid-tier eastern teams and ends up looking much better than they probably really are. When you only play 2-6 games nonconference, those games will have a disproportionate impact in assessing the relative standing of the conferences, and so a little good luck or bad luck in those games can matter a lot.
 
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Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

OnMAA said:
So if let's say NE wins HE, a more likely scenario than a team other than Harvard, Clarkson or Cornell winning the ECAC, you could end up with only one WCHA team in the tournament. Don't think anyone would have predicted that. This means all the WCHA teams are victimized by the utter domination of one team, while they beat up on each other.
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And yet, strangely, I feel no remorse.
 
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

FiveHoleFrenzy said:
Good point about the WCHA teams. Minnesota has been a wrecking ball to all the other conference teams, especially Wisconsin, UND, and UMD hanging 4 losses on them. Ohio State has a chance (probabably somewhere between slim and none) of gaining a win against Minnesota which could help their cause.
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TonyTheTiger20 said:
No they don't.

lol
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Take it to the bank: Grant Salzano: As much as I'd love to see Northeastern pull this upset on their home ice, I really don't hold all that much hope. BU is the better team and has been playing their best hockey of the season: BU 3, NU 1.
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Hungry Tony? If Ohio State can pull off a W you may get your second helping of words in a week:p

Although I do think Minny will preserve their uninterrupted victory streak
 
DC78-82 said:
Hungry Tony? If Ohio State can pull off a W you may get your second helping of words in a week:p

Although I do think Minny will preserve their uninterrupted victory streak
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Shhhhhhhh don't let everyone know I predicted a BU win, people might think I'm less than serious here on the forum!

Also, I very very much want to be wrong.
 
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

FiveHoleFrenzy said:
Ohio State has a chance (probabably somewhere between slim and none) of gaining a win against Minnesota which could help their cause.
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Chance is closer to Zero than None.
 
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

TonyTheTiger20 said:
Shhhhhhhh don't let everyone know I predicted a BU win, people might think I'm less than serious here on the forum!
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How could you ? Double :o :o . Crow eating time.

(P.S....To make you feel better, yours truly got both games wrong, but at least I bet on the same horses I've been running with all year. :D)
 
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