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Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

Eeyore said:
Harvard has only played three games against the top 12 in the RPI and lost two of them; of all the teams under consideration, only St. Lawrence has a worse winning percentage. (Not coincidentally, they're the only TUC Harvard has beaten.)

... And, who knows, the NCAA might decide on some new ad hoc method of compensating for the flaws in their selection criteria.
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Harvard beat Cornell; its first game vs SLU is tomorrow.

It might be good if some high-profile teams from the East got royally screwed by the PWR. Maybe then they'd reconsider the stupid criteria a bit more seriously.
 
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

ARM said:
Harvard beat Cornell; its first game vs SLU is tomorrow.

It might be good if some high-profile teams from the East got royally screwed by the PWR. Maybe then they'd reconsider the stupid criteria a bit more seriously.
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I really don't have a problem with the selection criteria. Harvard has an extraordinarily weak schedule, and they're getting screwed by that; not the selection criteria.
 
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

If Harvard did somehow lose the BU and Cornell comparisons and miss the tournament entirely... holy mother of God.

Sorry for the multi-posts but my head is exploding with the math insanity.
 
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

TonyTheTiger20 said:
I really don't have a problem with the selection criteria. Harvard has an extraordinarily weak schedule, and they're getting screwed by that; not the selection criteria.
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They're the #3 team in KRACH. Would you really want to have to play what may be the third-best team in the country in the quarters if you are the second-best team?
 
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

ARM said:
They're the #3 team in KRACH. Would you really want to have to play what may be the third-best team in the country in the quarters if you are the second-best team?
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Point: ARM.
 
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

mattj711 said:
I'm still not sold on Harvard being the clear favorite in the ECAC. Harvard's schedule to date hasn't been that strong. Harvard has typically done a good job of beating up on teams they should beat, and they have yet to play anyone from the north country. ...
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I appear to know what I am talking about.
 
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Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

ARM said:
They're the #3 team in KRACH. Would you really want to have to play what may be the third-best team in the country in the quarters if you are the second-best team?
Click to expand...

And now Harvard is back to #3 in the PWR.
 
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

I've been a bit out of the loop, but I don't think single-game fluctuations in the PWR are anything to get too worked up about. Harvard had played few TUCs early on, but now they have possibly 5 of their last 9 regular season games against TUCs. Overall, there's much more parity across conferences than in the past and much more consensus between the PWR & RPI & KRACH, so I don't expect a particular interesting year for anyone interested in reforming the system.

One other note: I don't agree with the assessment that the committee sent 5 to 1 last year to save costs. I believe the committee assessed Mercyhurst to be ranked lower than the straight USCHO Pairwise calculation, and the criteria were divided enough and close enough that the committee had discretion to do so.

There's been some discussion the last couple years about giving the women's committee less discretion, i.e. closer to the straight PWR calculation and exactly what the men do. I believe that's a terrible idea and the committee's discretion makes up for some lousy properties of the criteria, but I've been out of the loop, the minutes from NCAA minutes are now harder to find online than they used to be, and I have no idea what's actually been decided.
 
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

1) Minnesota
2) Boston College
3) Harvard
4) Boston University
5) Cornell
6) Clarkson
7) Mercyhurst
8) Wisconsin

Makes for a bracket of:

8) Wisconsin at 1) Minnesota
7) Mercyhurst at 2) Boston College
6) Clarkson at 3) Harvard
5) Cornell at 4) Boston University

Easily switched to avoid Clarkson @ Harvard by:

8) Wisconsin at 1) Minnesota
6) Clarkson at 2) Boston College
7) Mercyhurst at 3) Harvard
5) Cornell at 4) Boston University

*OR* perhaps the committee would consider:

7) Mercyhurst at 1) Minnesota
6) Clarkson at 2) Boston College
8) Wisconsin at 3) Harvard
5) Cornell at 4) Boston University

Which minimizes flights and has no intraconference matchups? This is probably the bracket I would choose.

EDIT: Though, the gap from 7 to 8 is pretty huge (not to mention 1 to 2)... so maybe not. Thoughts?
 
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Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

The approaching Beanpot, Hurst @ Cornell...and followers of the WCHA all know how motivated UMD will be to improve their position this weekend in Minneapolis. Quite a bit of potential for some shuffling of the deck directly ahead.
 
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

Tony, the third bracket has 2 flights and second has 1, so that reduces the prospects for the third. The sport suffers from a WCHA QF every year so I hope that's not the case - makes the sport feel more d3 than d1.
 
dave1381 said:
Tony, the third bracket has 2 flights and second has 1, so that reduces the prospects for the third. The sport suffers from a WCHA QF every year so I hope that's not the case - makes the sport feel more d3 than d1.
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From what I understand, Cornell is the only opponent for Mercyhurst that would not be a flight.
 
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

TonyTheTiger20 said:
From what I understand, Cornell is the only opponent for Mercyhurst that would not be a flight.
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Not quite true. That could change if Clarkson or SLU or OHIO are the opponent for MC.

While the chances of MC facing OHIO or SLU are slim, I can see a scenario where they face off against Clarkson. If Clarkson wins the ECAC, then they might end up above Cornell, and get a home date with MC.

And if you are keeping count.....
Erie to Boston is over 500 Miles
Erie to Potsdam/Canton is 350 Miles
Erie to Columbus is 230 Miles
 
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

brookyone said:
The approaching Beanpot, Hurst @ Cornell...and followers of the WCHA all know how motivated UMD will be to improve their position this weekend in Minneapolis. Quite a bit of potential for some shuffling of the deck directly ahead.
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The only shuffling UMD will do this weekend is quickly to the bus to get home. Like all others before them, expect them to come up empty handed in Minneapolis
 
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

At this point it looks pretty likely to me that any second WCHA team in NCAAs would end up being sent to Minnesota. Very likely it will be a WCHA final retread. I don't see the committee doing anything different when it's what's best for bracket integrity and minimizing travel, and right now the RPI gap between 7 and the 2nd-to-5th WCHA teams is significant.

The only way you might avoid an all-WCHA QF is if either (1) well, someone like SLU or Northeastern gets an autobid, or (2) one of these four WCHA teams goes on a big run and wins the WCHA tournament and becomes a solid 6th or 7th in the PWR, and makes it harder for the committee to create a pairing with Minnesota -- and even then the committee's directive is still to minimize travel when choosing who gets paired with top 4 seeds.
 
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Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

So here's a quick breakdown of what the committee has done with WCHA teams ranked from 5 to 8 in the NCAA tournament

2005: Wisconsin was 5th in PWR, got sent to de facto No. 4 Dartmouth (only top 2 teams were officially seeded) instead of No. 1 Minnesota or No. 2 UMD. This was a case where the committee ponied up for four flights to get the tournament off to a good start, and that's on record.

2006: UMD (6th in PWR) was sent to No. 3 SLU instead of No. 2 Wisconsin or No. 4 Minnesota. Committee went with 3 flights when it could've had 1 by having an all-WCHA quarterfinal and pairing Mercyhurst (7th in PWR) with SLU.

2007: UMD (7th in PWR) sent to No. 2 Mercyhurst instead of No. 1 Wisconsin. The committee could've done a zero-flight bracket this year (5 SLU vs 2 Mercyhurst, 7 UMD vs. 1 Wisconsin, 8 BC vs 3 Dartmouth, 6 Harvard vs. 4 UNH), but went with a two-flight bracket, Harvard at Wisconsin and UMD at Mercyhurst. The committee was also considering avoiding intraconference matchups this season, despite no official mandate, and going forward the committee gave this less attention due to the negative feedback from the actual Harvard-Wisconsin pairing.

2008: Wisconsin (5th in PWR) was sent to No. 4 Minnesota, the first all-WCHA quarterfinal.

2009: UMD (5th in PWR) got sent to No. 4 UNH instead of No. 1 Wisconsin or No. 3 Minnesota, so ended up with three flights instead of two if they had paired UMD and Minnesota.

2010: No WCHA teams 5-to-8.

2011: UMD (7th in PWR) sent to No. 1 Wisconsin. This gives the committee 2 flights, while any alternative would involve 4 flights.

2012: UND (7th in PWR) sent to No. 2 Minnesota. So a 1-flight (Mercyhurst vs. 1 Wisconsin) bracket was chosen instead of three-flight bracket that would've eliminated all intraconference matchups.

So my conclusion is that if a second WCHA team is 8th, clearly it's going to Minnesota. If bracket integrity and $$$ say intra-WCHA QF, then it'll happen. That's always been true. There was a strong past precedent never to send a No. 5 WCHA team to No. 1, but that's a bit dated (2009 & 2005) so who knows. And if a WCHA team is 6th, they avoided a WCHA pairing, but that hasn't happened since 2006. I'm not even so sure a No. 7 WCHA would be sent to No. 1, despite what happened in 2011, since that was a unique situation in terms of avoiding four flights. So it's hard to be sure what will happen if a second WCHA team is anywhere between 5th and 7th.
 
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Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

dave1381 said:
So my conclusion is that if a second WCHA team is 8th, clearly it's going to Minnesota. If that second WCHA is 5th to 7th, it's murkier.
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Or if that second WCHA team is ever Ohio State, because maybe they can bus to Madison, don't know, but they would be a flight to any other WCHA city. The only other way that I could see things getting more creative this year is if Mercyhurst were to stumble a bit in its remaining CHA games and wind up very close in RPI to an 8th-place WCHA team. It is easier to swap #7 and #8 if there isn't meaningful separation between them.
 
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

ARM said:
Or if that second WCHA team is ever Ohio State, because maybe they can bus to Madison, don't know, but they would be a flight to any other WCHA city. The only other way that I could see things getting more creative this year is if Mercyhurst were to stumble a bit in its remaining CHA games and wind up very close in RPI to an 8th-place WCHA team. It is easier to swap #7 and #8 if there isn't meaningful separation between them.
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Just looked at the MC pairings comparisons, and my conclusion is that if both Wisco and UMD finish strongly, and MC has a lapse or two, MC could very wellfall out of the top 8. With their loss to Cornell last night, they are now losing that comparison, that they were winning before last night. MC is currently ahead in pairings with UMD and Wisco, but in both cases the numbers are very close. If for example UMD manages to steal a point or two from Minny this weekend, it would make things very interesting.
 
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