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Predicting who gets in the 2021 NCAA Tournament

ARM said:
The "bracket integrity" argument doesn't cut it this year, because the selections are based largely on wild guesses and don't come with a lot of integrity.
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That's easily the best argument for it I've seen. I was already on board with this but that's a great point.
 
TonyTheTiger20 said:
It's tough to get in when you're 0-1 on your entire season, true. Didn't even get in the NCAA's minimum required 10 games. Sucks, but that's the way the cookie crumbles sometimes.
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No, that 5-1 loss to UConn is damning. A bubble team might get away with it, as you said everything went right for BC yesterday. UConn only scored 5 goals in one other game all year, against a 1 win Merrimack team. But somehow in the playoffs BC gave up 5 on 26 shots to them! People are right to scrutinize that.
 
Lindsay said:
No, that 5-1 loss to UConn is damning. A bubble team might get away with it, as you said everything went right for BC yesterday. UConn only scored 5 goals in one other game all year, against a 1 win Merrimack team. But somehow in the playoffs BC gave up 5 on 26 shots to them! People are right to scrutinize that.
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Well yeah, sure, but in single elimination hockey, s#it happens sometimes, come on. We had just beaten them 5x in a row, give me a break.

At least we didn't lose to Bemidji or tie freaking Lindenwood.
 
TonyTheTiger20 said:
Well yeah, sure, but in single elimination hockey, s#it happens sometimes, come on. We had just beaten them 5x in a row, give me a break.

At least we didn't lose to Bemidji or tie freaking Lindenwood.
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No I won’t give you a break. I’ll spot you a loss, I won’t you spot you a blow out. Also Penn State tied Lindenwood in reg season, didn’t get blown out by them in the playoffs.

UMD wants the same thing, based on the coaches quotes that Nicole Haase tweeted yesterday. They say they deserve in, lost to a good team. It’s a moving of the goal posts. It’s one thing to take an L against a strong opponent in a tough league. Totally get that. But now teams think they can get beat badly in the playoffs and still think there won’t be pushback as they make their case for an at large bid? No.
 
TonyTheTiger20 said:
At least we didn't lose to Bemidji or tie freaking Lindenwood.
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Bemidji is like the inverse of Maine. Maine has great goaltending, but they have some players who struggle to skate. Bemidji is a good-skating team, but the delta in their goaltending from its best day to its worst is huge. That's been the case for BSU ever since Mowat graduated.

One other point about BC. Two of its wins are basically ties with 3-on-3 success. One of those is against PC. So the Friars were 2-0-1 against the Eagles if viewed that way, reached the tourney final, and nobody is saying that they belong in the NCAAs. So to plop BC down and say they are a 5th seed, we've got more than one wart to look at. I agree that the Eagles will get in, but their case is very shaky and more thanks to the failings of others.
 
BC does not get in going into playoffs period. PSU was rated higher than BC going into the weekend. PSU lost 3&2. BC lost 5&1. No way to justify it and anytime someone comes up with a graph that has all that data it screams bs. Really come on going back all those years. That's shameful and the rest of the voters should not tolerate it. It's enough of a black eye that Watts did not get voted Patty Kaz last year and the player of the year was on a subpar team this year. Time to take the bias out of the equation.
 
Reddington said:
BC does not get in going into playoffs period. PSU was rated higher than BC going into the weekend. PSU lost 3&2. BC lost 5&1. No way to justify it and anytime someone comes up with a graph that has all that data it screams bs. Really come on going back all those years. That's shameful and the rest of the voters should not tolerate it. It's enough of a black eye that Watts did not get voted Patty Kaz last year and the player of the year was on a subpar team this year. Time to take the bias out of the equation.
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Can hardly wait to hear the tournament field announced tonight to see which of us looks brilliant and which of us will be mystified!
 
I'm prepared to be mystified, but I have put forth the bulletproof argument. I don't get to vote on rankings and the rankers put PSU over BC and the losses speak for themselves. Therefore, there should be no rankings change.
 
BC's loss to UConn was bad and they've looked meh at times this year, but they don't really have any other bad losses and beat Northeastern.

Robert Morris, Colgate, and Northeastern have auto bids.


If I were on the committee I'd be making a case for

Wisconsin
Ohio State
BC
Penn State
St. Lawrence or Minnesota

I don't think the WCHA was particularly strong this season and the ECAC teams got no easy conference games, unlike the other conferences.
 
TitleIXHockey said:
BC's loss to UConn was bad and they've looked meh at times this year, but they don't really have any other bad losses and beat Northeastern.

Robert Morris, Colgate, and Northeastern have auto bids.


If I were on the committee I'd be making a case for

Wisconsin
Ohio State
BC
Penn State
St. Lawrence or Minnesota

I don't think the WCHA was particularly strong this season and the ECAC teams got no easy conference games, unlike the other conferences.
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I like this lineup. And then the NCAA just needs to seed the teams in a pure fashion since travel is not a factor this year.
 
TitleIXHockey said:
BC's loss to UConn was bad and they've looked meh at times this year, but they don't really have any other bad losses and beat Northeastern.

Robert Morris, Colgate, and Northeastern have auto bids.


If I were on the committee I'd be making a case for

Wisconsin
Ohio State
BC
Penn State
St. Lawrence or Minnesota

I don't think the WCHA was particularly strong this season and the ECAC teams got no easy conference games, unlike the other conferences.
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I have a hard time believing the committee would take SLU over Minnesota. Just because of the inherent Minnesota bias.
 
Just spit-ballin'. 2/3 could flip based on the WCHA championship results.

1. Northeastern
2. WisconSIN
3. Ohio State
4. Colgate
5. Penn State
6. Minnesota
7. bc
8. RMU

Just after I typed this the sinners score very early in OT so they will be either 1 or 2.
 
Last edited:
FiveHoleFrenzy said:
Just spit-ballin'. 2/3 could flip based on the WCHA championship results.

1. Northeastern
2. WisconSIN
3. Ohio State
4. Colgate
5. Penn State
6. Minnesota
7. bc
8. RMU

Just after I typed this the sinners score very early in OT so they will be either 1 or 2.
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If those are the teams, then I hope that they slide UM to play either Northeastern or Colgate. It would be nice not to play either of the teams that we've already seen a combined 11 times. I know Clarkson played Colgate/SLU like 15 times, but enough is enough.
 
ARM said:
If those are the teams, then I hope that they slide UM to play either Northeastern or Colgate. It would be nice not to play either of the teams that we've already seen a combined 11 times. I know Clarkson played Colgate/SLU like 15 times, but enough is enough.
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If there was a way to not include Minnesota I would be for that but there has been failures elsewhere so Minnesota kinda benefits from that (as does bc).
 
TonyTheTiger20 said:
Okay, here's where I stand on all this.

Results pretty much went 4 for 4 on what BC needed today. RMU winning takes a bit of the shine off PSU since they didn't lose to the eventual champion. UW/OSU tomorrow is irrelevant, but BC could really use a Colgate win. I feel decent about BC getting in as it is, but I'll feel even better if the Raiders get the W.

BC, Minnesota, Duluth, and Penn State are the four teams on the bubble right now. Three will get in if Colgate wins the ECAC, two will if SLU wins. I can't see the CHA getting an at-large for the first time ever without playing a single game against a top 10 team. UMD & Minnesota are currently in a race to the bottom to get into the field. I think the duel is between them for the last spot, if necessary. BC's resume is pretty good -- no really bad losses, a win over #1 NU, and the loss to UConn (an above-average team, based on league-only KRACH) was after beating them 5x in a row, and UConn went on to put a scare on #1 NU.

Gun to my head, w/ a Colgate win, field should be:

1 Northeastern
2 WCHA Champ
3 WCHA Runner Up
4 Colgate
5 Boston College
6 Minnesota
7 Duluth
8 Robert Morris

Could see the committee put PSU over UMD but I'd personally say UMD. And I wouldn't argue with someone saying Minnesota over BC, just know a lot of people think the Gophers should be out.
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Tony, based on what I have watched this weekend your bang on. Wisco could and maybe should displace Northeastern based completely on strength of schedule and competition at 1/2. Your prognostications and predictions for BC all fell into place with Colgate winning today.
 
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