Offsides Guy
Active member
If UMD wins the Jamboree then MN is out. WCHA then has WI, OSU and UMD in the tourney.
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Predicting who gets in the 2021 NCAA Tournament
- Thread starter zambonidriver
- Start date
If UMD wins the Jamboree then MN is out. WCHA then has WI, OSU and UMD in the tourney.
Boston College played .500 hockey since Feb and got its butt kicked against UConn in the playoffs. If Colgate loses today, also .500 since Feb. Already looking at possibility of giving SLU - a team that played like 13 games this season in 4 team league an auto bid. Particularly if Syracuse wins today, I think Penn State deserves in.
robertearle
Well-known member
One thing that occurred to me while I was out running just now: in the anti-Penn State case, the one actual Pairwise 'common opponent' piece of information we have this year is Colgate beating Syracuse back in November. So if you get the point of "who deserves two slots more, CHA or ECAC?", that Syracuse-Colgate series argues "not CHA".
In recent years, the NCAA women's hockey quarterfinals have had free live streams. I can't verify that will be the case this year but here's the link where you would find the 1st two games if that holds true. Two games are set to be played on Mon 3/15 and the other two on Tue 3/16.
https://www.ncaa.com/liveschedule/2021/03/15
https://www.ncaa.com/liveschedule/2021/03/15
I know. Definitely sucks for Penn State. In a weird way, this has the potential of Cuse sticking it to Penn State twice. Once with this ooc matchup that you mention that might screw Penn State, and a second time by eliminating Penn State in the CHA Tourney. So it’s not a slam dunk for Penn State and I do recognize my bias, but I’m just not convinced they should be out. I’m very much of the mind there is a top tier of 4-5 teams and then a pack of the rest.
If Cuse wins today and Colgate loses, I think it’s fair to say Cuse got better over the season amd finished strong while Colgate did not, and that typically counts for something. Maybe Penn State’s 3-2 playoff loss to Cuse, is not a bad loss if Cuse are a tourney winning team. How much weight should that early series of Cuse vs Colgate hold? I’m not sure. If RMU wins today, I think Penn State’s case is weaker only because you have a circular situation where everyone in CHA is beating everyone in league at end of year.
I have less opposition to sending two HE teams than I do to sending 2 ECAC teams. Last point of it comes down to Colgate vs Penn State. 2 years ago these teams played each other and split. Colgate was fifth in the country in the time and Penn State was unranked. They are not worlds apart in talent.
just some things to think about. We’ll see what the committee does.
Offsides Guy
Active member
Penn State has nothing to worry about.
Offsides Guy
Active member
Yes, I’ve only seen WCHA games this year. And, no, I can’t answer the question of who would you put in the tournament instead. Having said that, based on today’s games, Minnesota and Duluth do not deserve to be in a national tournament.
robertearle
Well-known member
Duluth is almost certainly out. Minnesota is absolutely in.
(If there were going to be "home teams", Minnesota would be in the running to be the #4 seed home team. And that assuming Colgate wins tomorrow.)
Hockeybuckeye
Well-known member
Ohio State and Wisconsin certainly in.
Offsides Guy
Active member
I have no idea how the seeding would play out but, if that’s the case, I would find a MN vs Penn State game an interesting one to watch.
robertearle
Well-known member
I was thinking a "Big Ten vs non" bracket. Which would also be largely east vs west.
Hockeybuckeye
Well-known member
Here's the link on how to watch the selection show tomorrow night.
https://www.ncaa.com/live-updates/ic...le-and-updates
https://www.ncaa.com/live-updates/ic...le-and-updates
TonyTheTiger20
#SOAR
Okay, here's where I stand on all this.
Results pretty much went 4 for 4 on what BC needed today. RMU winning takes a bit of the shine off PSU since they didn't lose to the eventual champion. UW/OSU tomorrow is irrelevant, but BC could really use a Colgate win. I feel decent about BC getting in as it is, but I'll feel even better if the Raiders get the W.
BC, Minnesota, Duluth, and Penn State are the four teams on the bubble right now. Three will get in if Colgate wins the ECAC, two will if SLU wins. I can't see the CHA getting an at-large for the first time ever without playing a single game against a top 10 team. UMD & Minnesota are currently in a race to the bottom to get into the field. I think the duel is between them for the last spot, if necessary. BC's resume is pretty good -- no really bad losses, a win over #1 NU, and the loss to UConn (an above-average team, based on league-only KRACH) was after beating them 5x in a row, and UConn went on to put a scare on #1 NU.
Gun to my head, w/ a Colgate win, field should be:
1 Northeastern
2 WCHA Champ
3 WCHA Runner Up
4 Colgate
5 Boston College
6 Minnesota
7 Duluth
8 Robert Morris
Could see the committee put PSU over UMD but I'd personally say UMD. And I wouldn't argue with someone saying Minnesota over BC, just know a lot of people think the Gophers should be out.
Results pretty much went 4 for 4 on what BC needed today. RMU winning takes a bit of the shine off PSU since they didn't lose to the eventual champion. UW/OSU tomorrow is irrelevant, but BC could really use a Colgate win. I feel decent about BC getting in as it is, but I'll feel even better if the Raiders get the W.
BC, Minnesota, Duluth, and Penn State are the four teams on the bubble right now. Three will get in if Colgate wins the ECAC, two will if SLU wins. I can't see the CHA getting an at-large for the first time ever without playing a single game against a top 10 team. UMD & Minnesota are currently in a race to the bottom to get into the field. I think the duel is between them for the last spot, if necessary. BC's resume is pretty good -- no really bad losses, a win over #1 NU, and the loss to UConn (an above-average team, based on league-only KRACH) was after beating them 5x in a row, and UConn went on to put a scare on #1 NU.
Gun to my head, w/ a Colgate win, field should be:
1 Northeastern
2 WCHA Champ
3 WCHA Runner Up
4 Colgate
5 Boston College
6 Minnesota
7 Duluth
8 Robert Morris
Could see the committee put PSU over UMD but I'd personally say UMD. And I wouldn't argue with someone saying Minnesota over BC, just know a lot of people think the Gophers should be out.
robertearle
Well-known member
Disagree if you like, of course, but I think this got pretty easy after today.
I think we get:
- Northeastern and BC from Hockey East
- Wisconsin, Ohio State and Minnesota from WCHA
- Robert Morris and Penn State from CHA
- Colgate from ECAC (assuming they win tomorrow.)
If St Lawrence beats Colgate, then both St Lawrence and Colgate get in, and Penn State gets bumped.
If you want to think about "who else?":
- the next team in Hockey East is Providence, and you can make a decent argument for Providence and not BC, but if you do a "Pairwise" comparison between the two, BC wins. Providence and not Penn State, or Minnesota? Nah.
- Next in the WCHA is Duluth, and I don't think anybody has much energy to argue Duluth instead of Penn State or BC.
- Next in the ECAC if Colgate beats St Lawrence is either a team that is literally under .500 (Clarkson and St Lawrence) or one that is only above .500 because of wins over LIU and Sacred Heart.
- Next in the CHA? No. I'm already giving them two slots.
I think we get:
- Northeastern and BC from Hockey East
- Wisconsin, Ohio State and Minnesota from WCHA
- Robert Morris and Penn State from CHA
- Colgate from ECAC (assuming they win tomorrow.)
If St Lawrence beats Colgate, then both St Lawrence and Colgate get in, and Penn State gets bumped.
If you want to think about "who else?":
- the next team in Hockey East is Providence, and you can make a decent argument for Providence and not BC, but if you do a "Pairwise" comparison between the two, BC wins. Providence and not Penn State, or Minnesota? Nah.
- Next in the WCHA is Duluth, and I don't think anybody has much energy to argue Duluth instead of Penn State or BC.
- Next in the ECAC if Colgate beats St Lawrence is either a team that is literally under .500 (Clarkson and St Lawrence) or one that is only above .500 because of wins over LIU and Sacred Heart.
- Next in the CHA? No. I'm already giving them two slots.
robertearle
Well-known member
Penn State vs Duluth! LOL
-------------
Re: "without playing a single game against a top 10 team."
How far down does "Quality Win" go? Because Penn State has a small amount of QWB
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TonyTheTiger20
#SOAR
Yeah if we get this I wouldn't quibble with the reasoning. PSU vs. UMD is a coin flip for me.
robertearle
Well-known member
It's a rather shockingly weak field, no? COVID, of course, but still...
ARM
Fan of chipmunk-like mascots.
I sure hope that the committee is smart enough to get rid of 1st round conference pairings. The "bracket integrity" argument doesn't cut it this year, because the selections are based largely on wild guesses and don't come with a lot of integrity.
That's true in the math sense. It's not true in the hockey fans watching hockey sense, where one would think that a team could play a competitive game against an unranked team with its season on the line.
I'm in the camp that thinks this tourney doesn't need UM in the bracket. Comparing the Gophers to the Eagles, however, the Gophs look pretty good. At least all of Minnesota's losses are to top-three teams, not the likes of UConn or BU. I hope that SLU wins, because PSU and SLU would both bring a breath of fresh air to this affair, and I don't see SLU getting blown out by anyone. I think the Saints got that out of their system with their late opener.
robertearle
Well-known member
I’m conflicted but also want SLU to win, as a friend coaches there, and frankly I just like their program. I want them to win but don’t want that to bump Penn State. I give SLU grief on their short season but if that was due to doing the ethical thing and canceling when they or their opponent had COVID, well it was the right thing. Also Ohio State football played a super short season and still got put in the playoffs. So it’s a thing we’re seeing in this sports season.
I see SLU got badly outshot in their recent game against Clarkson, not sure if that’s standard, but despite that they are sure a hot team right now. With different than usual teams and hopefully no intra conference opening games this really does seem like the potential for a fun tourney, maybe a first time ever national champion.
if Wisconsin wins it all it will be the second time done on the back of a UND goalie. Sickening for UND fans sort of, as it would once again speak to the talent in the program that was cut.