Predicting who gets in the 2021 NCAA Tournament

[TonyTheTiger20]

UM only has 4 quality wins and a tie but has 12 games against quality opponents. They are in.

Plus 2-0-0 against Duluth. I truly do not get the argument some people have made that UMD should be in over Minnesota. UM over UMD is like the one thing I'm sure about haha

The question with Duluth is who do you put in over them? Surely not Clarkson and surely not Providence. UMD is in for me if only on the basis of there being a pretty big drop off after the top 8.

 

[robertearle]

Quick wwcha stats...UM UW OSU UMD records against each other:

UW 8-3-1
OSU 7-5
UM 4-7-1
UMD 2-4

Does UMD deserve to get in based on 2 quality wins and only 6 games against quality opponents? I'm thinking not. UM only has 4 quality wins and a tie but has 12 games against quality opponents. They are in.

The 'problem' (as always, assuming no upsets) is that it is easy to name six teams, and really hard to name the last two. UW, OSU, NE, Colgate, Penn State, Minnesota. Then who? Is Duluth any less deserving than BC, or Providence or Clarkson, or...

I'd say Duluth is likely one of "the other two". But it is such a weird year to try to figure these things...

 

[Offsides Guy]

Plus 2-0-0 against Duluth. I truly do not get the argument some people have made that UMD should be in over Minnesota. UM over UMD is like the one thing I'm sure about haha

The question with Duluth is who do you put in over them?

I agree re UMD but I also can’t answer your question. I just don’t think they get in.

 

[robertearle]

I agree re UMD but I also can’t answer your question. I just don’t think they get in.

Should we all hope for an upset or two?

 

[Offsides Guy]

Should we all hope for an upset or two?

Yes!

 

[zoofer]

While I’ve not seen any games outside of Hockey East, I have to agree with only Northeastern deserves to move on....BC was horrendous in losing to UConn! If the Huskies don’t measure up, than BC surely can’t....Providi can be competitive if a second HE team is needed....aside from the homer announcers for Northeastern, that don’t know hockey but think the Huskies gold,
listening to you gents, the finals should be Northeastern vs Wisconsin? (Maybe Ohio St.) Any chance of a goaltender stealing the trophy? Enjoying what has been a weird season.....
BTW, kudos to LIU Sharks for back to back championships!! Looking forward to their intro to the NCAA’s next year....

 

[zoofer]

Just an FYI, I was edited above....let’s just say, I’m NOT a fan of announcers that continually tells you how great their team is for 60 minutes!! You all can imagine what came between Huskies......gold! ‍

 

[ARM]

... the finals should be Northeastern vs Wisconsin? (Maybe Ohio St.) Any chance of a goaltender stealing the trophy?

If Northeastern is on the opposite side of the bracket from Wisconsin and Ohio State, then its chances of getting to the final increase. Other than that, the Huskies will have to overcome what dominant teams in Hockey East have always battled -- at some point, in the semi if not before, they will play a team that is markedly better than what they've seen so far this year.

NU's most-talented opponent so far is likely BC, but that was opening weekend for the Huskies. You want to come out of your conference feeling confident, but not get the feeling that there is this big gap between you and everyone else. Then you get to the NCAA Tournament and play teams that can skate with you, you're behind after 20 minutes, and you never get comfortable. Hockey East teams have performed better historically in NCAAs if they've come out of a battle for the league. UNH in 2008 or BC in 2016 would have been better served if somebody in HEA had been equipped to push them around a little.

What the Huskies have over most HEA powers in years gone by is the top goaltender in the country at this point. If Northeastern gets on its heels for a bit, Frankel gives them a better chance to survive and regroup.

 

[zoofer]

As always ARM, I agree with every point you make! Even to the point where before I read your comments on Frankel, I was beginning to formulate just such an argument!
Not since Schelling has Northeastern had the goaltending it does now....not just stats but the confidence for the defense to be that much looser in taking chances....possibly not in the playoffs though! Plus, I might give Coach Flint the benefit of the doubt here and hope he’s as aware of past HE performances at the NCAA’s as we are!
When UNH lost to UMD, it was 2 pp goals to one, with one hellacious tip-in from a shot 4 feet wide...(other than my remembrance of Wisconsin beating us in ‘77’, I don’t hold grudges!)

 

[robertearle]

So after six games on Thursday and Friday, did *anything* get sorted out?

 

[FiveHoleFrenzy]

So after six games on Thursday and Friday, did *anything* get sorted out?

RMU or Syracuse is in so where does that leave Penny State? They really crapped the bed in their last couple of games.

 

[robertearle]

RMU or Syracuse is in so where does that leave Penny State? They really crapped the bed in their last couple of games.

I said earlier, I can't see leaving out a 16 win 3 loss team, particularly if it is in favor of BC or Duluth, etc. I think Penn State is in and the CHA gets two slots.

(If Duluth wins the WCHA AND Northeastern gets beat AND Colgate loses, etc, that might have to change.)

 

[ndodge]

Sorry if wrong place to post, not sure where to post this: Is it known what service might stream tourney games not on ESPNU ? (looks like ESPNU will air one semifinal and the final, I think). I'm debating buying FloHockey for the WCHA tournament and if I get some NCAA games on top of that it'd be nice.

 

[robertearle]

Sorry if wrong place to post, not sure where to post this: Is it known what service might stream tourney games not on ESPNU ? (looks like ESPNU will air one semifinal and the final, I think). I'm debating buying FloHockey for the WCHA tournament and if I get some NCAA games on top of that it'd be nice.

My best guess is that if ESPN has the rights, anything not on ESPNU/ESPN2 etc would be on ESPN's stream, sometimes called ESPN3. I doubt Flo would have it.

(If I had known last week I was going to be stuck buying a month's worth of Flo, I'd have done it before the Duluth-Wisconsin games last weekend. WCHA as a whole really should be on one service with one price tag!)

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Adding: The ESPN3 web site does show an NCAA women's hockey game on their schedule for Thursday the 18th. They do not show anything for Monday or Tuesday, the quarterfinals; Lord knows where those might show up!

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

I can't see leaving out a 16 win 3 loss team

4 loss team. Let's not ignore those two ties, one of which came to 2-14-1 Lindenwood.

It would be a little ridiculous to put in a 4 loss CHA team that played zero (0) games against teams in the top 10 over a 5 loss WHEA team that beat the #1 team in the country and had a very respectable overall SOS, I'm sorry.

Penn State over Duluth, I could see. Duluth's SOS is comical. But I would put in UMD over PSU personally.

 

[robertearle]

4 loss team. Let's not ignore those two ties, one of which came to 2-14-1 Lindenwood.

It would be a little ridiculous to put in a 4 loss CHA team that played zero (0) games against teams in the top 10 over a 5 loss WHEA team that beat the #1 team in the country and had a very respectable overall SOS, I'm sorry.

Penn State over Duluth, I could see. Duluth's SOS is comical. But I would put in UMD over PSU personally.

Yeah.... the other way to say it is the regular season champs of a conference that managed to have all teams play a largely normal schedule. That should count for something this year, vis-a-vis ECAC, for example.

"Top ten' and we're back to the inflated RPIs of the ECAC; factor them out to some degree and CHA has three teams besides Penn State in the 10-to-13 range of the RPI (such as it is).

Man, this year is messed up!

(Duluth could certainly help their argument with a win today...)

 

[Hockeynation]

4 loss team. Let's not ignore those two ties, one of which came to 2-14-1 Lindenwood.

It would be a little ridiculous to put in a 4 loss CHA team that played zero (0) games against teams in the top 10 over a 5 loss WHEA team that beat the #1 team in the country and had a very respectable overall SOS, I'm sorry.

Penn State over Duluth, I could see. Duluth's SOS is comical. But I would put in UMD over PSU personally.

What's even more comical is in a single game elimination scenario anything can happen. Like you said UMD beat #1 and were minutes away from a conference title, Penn losing. The ranking systems and hypothetical grading of teams abilities all comes down to one game. Who brings it on that day and performs the best. Right or wrong who's in, who's out is very hypothetical. The regular season at least matters and gives the conference champions the golden ticket and a perceived top ranked teams a second chance if needed. Nobody remember's your regular season record if you Win! It's great to see it all!

 

[ARM]

With two members of the committee being from HEA, I don't see that league getting just one team in. If Providence wins today, I don't know that BC still gets in, but we'll have to see. PC wins, SLU wins, then it is a fun time for all with three off-the-radar autobids. "Just win, baby."

 

[robertearle]

With two members of the committee being from HEA, I don't see that league getting just one team in. If Providence wins today, I don't know that BC still gets in, but we'll have to see. PC wins, SLU wins, then it is a fun time for all with three off-the-radar autobids. "Just win, baby."

Throw Duluth in there as upset winners, and Minnesota is looking over their shoulder?

 

[zoofer]

To answer your streaming question ndodge, in going to the Wisconsin webpage they direct you to Flohockey, which will charge you $13 for the month, not sure if that includes the championship though....ESPNis only good for the finals...(that keeps their “home for the ncaa championship promo in tact). HE final is on NESN at 7 et....