Fighting Sioux 23
New member
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Just the top returning scored in the conference. I think he has a Hobey-type year and Wisconsin surprises some people.
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Pre-Season Predictions
- Thread starter JDUBBS1280
- Start date
Just the top returning scored in the conference. I think he has a Hobey-type year and Wisconsin surprises some people.
JDUBBS1280
MN Hockey Enthusiast
Personally, I'm really looking forward to seeing BC's incoming frosh Dmen. Some talented players there. Of course, they won't be anywhere near up to Gopher standards, but I'm sure they'll fit into BC's program just fine.
Matheson, Doherty, and Sullivan are going to be good, but it is tough for defensemen to come in and play at a high level their freshmen year. Which is why I thought all the talk about moving Marshall to forward and playing one of the Gopher's freshmen defensemen in his place was such silly talk.
JDUBBS1280
MN Hockey Enthusiast
Re: Pre-Season Predictions
I posted this in my other thread, but thought I would post this here too in order to address some of the questions/criticisms in regards to my BC prediction. This explains why I think goaltending will be more of a factor for BC than most people think, and why I think goaltending will be much less of an issue for Minnesota than most people think.
2008-09 (Waterloo/USHL): 31 games/2.90 GAA/0.902 SV%
2009-10 (Boston College): 14 games/2.32 GAA/0.909 SV%
2010-11 (Boston College): 8 games/2.68 GAA/0.899 SV%
2011-12 (Boston College): 34 games/1.66 GAA/0.937 SV%
Now, do I think Milner will play as poorly as he did in limited action in 2010-11 next season? Probably not. But I don't think he will play at the incredibly high level he played at last season either. I believe he will regress back to somewhere in between.
Milner's Career Mean: 87 games/2.3 GAA/0.916 SV%
To be fair, the Gophers could see a regression in net as well. However, the regression should be much smaller and they should have (emphasis added to note opinion vs fact) a better defense playing in front of them.
Let me support this with Facts. The Gophers got the following from Patterson last season:
2011-12 (Golden Gophers): 43 games/2.32 GAA/0.907 SV%
Adam Wilcox (whom I think will eventually earn starter spot) has the following for career means:
Adam Wilcox Career Mean: 67 games/2.5 GAA/0.918 SV%
So, if Milner regresses to his mean for BC, he should have closer to a 2.3 GAA than a 1.66 and a 0.916 SV% instead of a 0.937. That's a 0.64 drop in GAA and a 0.21 drop in SV%.
And if Adam Wilcox plays at his career mean, the Gophers should get something closer to a 2.5 GAA instead of a 2.32 and a 0.918 SV% instead of a 0.907 (Wilcox's mean career SV% is actually higher than Patterson's SV% last season). This translates into a 0.18 drop in GAA and a +0.011 rise in SV%.
I posted this in my other thread, but thought I would post this here too in order to address some of the questions/criticisms in regards to my BC prediction. This explains why I think goaltending will be more of a factor for BC than most people think, and why I think goaltending will be much less of an issue for Minnesota than most people think.
2008-09 (Waterloo/USHL): 31 games/2.90 GAA/0.902 SV%
2009-10 (Boston College): 14 games/2.32 GAA/0.909 SV%
2010-11 (Boston College): 8 games/2.68 GAA/0.899 SV%
2011-12 (Boston College): 34 games/1.66 GAA/0.937 SV%
Now, do I think Milner will play as poorly as he did in limited action in 2010-11 next season? Probably not. But I don't think he will play at the incredibly high level he played at last season either. I believe he will regress back to somewhere in between.
Milner's Career Mean: 87 games/2.3 GAA/0.916 SV%
To be fair, the Gophers could see a regression in net as well. However, the regression should be much smaller and they should have (emphasis added to note opinion vs fact) a better defense playing in front of them.
Let me support this with Facts. The Gophers got the following from Patterson last season:
2011-12 (Golden Gophers): 43 games/2.32 GAA/0.907 SV%
Adam Wilcox (whom I think will eventually earn starter spot) has the following for career means:
Adam Wilcox Career Mean: 67 games/2.5 GAA/0.918 SV%
So, if Milner regresses to his mean for BC, he should have closer to a 2.3 GAA than a 1.66 and a 0.916 SV% instead of a 0.937. That's a 0.64 drop in GAA and a 0.21 drop in SV%.
And if Adam Wilcox plays at his career mean, the Gophers should get something closer to a 2.5 GAA instead of a 2.32 and a 0.918 SV% instead of a 0.907 (Wilcox's mean career SV% is actually higher than Patterson's SV% last season). This translates into a 0.18 drop in GAA and a +0.011 rise in SV%.
JDUBBS1280
MN Hockey Enthusiast
Re: Pre-Season Predictions
In summary, why I have Minnesota at number 1:
1). Most returning scoring in college hockey by far.
2). They return all of their defensemen
3). They shouldn't see much of a drop in goaltending
Why I think BC will be a bubble team, and why I am going out on a small limb and predicting they miss the tourney:
1). Lots of turnover defensively. Very tough for freshmen defensemen to step in and play at a high level.
2). They will see a significant regression in goaltending. When I say "significant", I don't mean Milner will play horribly, but rather closer to his career mean (which will be significantly below last year's numbers).
3). They will see a drop in scoring. Partially because of losses, but mostly because they will struggle more to move the puck out of the defensive zone and up to their forwards because of their losses defensively.
In summary, why I have Minnesota at number 1:
1). Most returning scoring in college hockey by far.
2). They return all of their defensemen
3). They shouldn't see much of a drop in goaltending
Why I think BC will be a bubble team, and why I am going out on a small limb and predicting they miss the tourney:
1). Lots of turnover defensively. Very tough for freshmen defensemen to step in and play at a high level.
2). They will see a significant regression in goaltending. When I say "significant", I don't mean Milner will play horribly, but rather closer to his career mean (which will be significantly below last year's numbers).
3). They will see a drop in scoring. Partially because of losses, but mostly because they will struggle more to move the puck out of the defensive zone and up to their forwards because of their losses defensively.
Fighting Sioux 23
New member
Re: Pre-Season Predictions
While I tend to agree with your overall premise (that Milner's numbers will drop somewhat, and that whoever winds up in the Gopher nets should do just fine), I strongly disagree with using USHL numbers. Plus, if you need to use USHL stats, Wilcox had a 2.91 GAA this past season in the USHL, and a .916 Sv %. He has worsened in each of his three seasons in the USHL, and was abysmal in big games (4.70 GAA, .842 Sv % in the Playoffs this past season).
While I tend to agree with your overall premise (that Milner's numbers will drop somewhat, and that whoever winds up in the Gopher nets should do just fine), I strongly disagree with using USHL numbers. Plus, if you need to use USHL stats, Wilcox had a 2.91 GAA this past season in the USHL, and a .916 Sv %. He has worsened in each of his three seasons in the USHL, and was abysmal in big games (4.70 GAA, .842 Sv % in the Playoffs this past season).
Re: Pre-Season Predictions
Relax, dude. Predicting coach of the year is the equivalent of predicting which team you think will do much better than they did the year before. With returning players, incoming talent, why is that so ridiculous? Also, if there's a junior who had a great year and returns for his senior year, wouldn't that player be a logical choice for player of the year? These types of predictions aren't new.
JDUBBS, I agree that Milner probably won't duplicate the numbers he ended last season with. But, just because player X has a breakout year doesn't automatically mean that the next year they will regress to what they've done in the past.
Relax, dude. Predicting coach of the year is the equivalent of predicting which team you think will do much better than they did the year before. With returning players, incoming talent, why is that so ridiculous? Also, if there's a junior who had a great year and returns for his senior year, wouldn't that player be a logical choice for player of the year? These types of predictions aren't new.
JDUBBS, I agree that Milner probably won't duplicate the numbers he ended last season with. But, just because player X has a breakout year doesn't automatically mean that the next year they will regress to what they've done in the past.
Fighting Sioux 23
New member
Re: Pre-Season Predictions
Exactly. I haven't seen a single person predict that Nick Bjugstad will regress to his freshman year (8g, 12a). While I will fully admit that comparing a forward to a goalie is a bit of a stretch, the general premise is still the same. A guy who puts up extremely good numbers, is likely to at least put up very strong numbers the next year. You typically don't see a guy go from mediocre numbers to great numbers, and then back to mediocre numbers. I think that Milner will likely hover around a 2.00-2.20 GAA, and will likely win 60-70% of his games. That should be plenty to get BC into the NCAA Tournament.
Exactly. I haven't seen a single person predict that Nick Bjugstad will regress to his freshman year (8g, 12a). While I will fully admit that comparing a forward to a goalie is a bit of a stretch, the general premise is still the same. A guy who puts up extremely good numbers, is likely to at least put up very strong numbers the next year. You typically don't see a guy go from mediocre numbers to great numbers, and then back to mediocre numbers. I think that Milner will likely hover around a 2.00-2.20 GAA, and will likely win 60-70% of his games. That should be plenty to get BC into the NCAA Tournament.
JDUBBS1280
MN Hockey Enthusiast
Re: Pre-Season Predictions
First off, measuring performance is different with goalies than it is with forwards or defensemen. So, I don't think it's apples-to-apples to point out that I'm not predicting a regression for Bjugstad. I'm not predicting a regression for a guy like Gaudreau either. Now, I do think BC will see a drop in secondary scoring, but as I mention, I think that will have more to do with their defensive losses than with any regression in play from their forwards.
Now, while it isn't a certainty that goalies regress to their mean after a above average season, or progress to their mean after a poor season, history shows that usually they do. And when I say "regress to their mean", I'm not saying all the way to their mean, I am saying "to" or "towards" their mean.
How much will Milner's numbers regress (sounds like we all agree he won't put up the same guady numbers)? Who knows. But, considering BC's losses defensively, I am predicting that his numbers are much closer to his mean numbers than they are to last year's numbers.
That's my opinion. Feel free to disagree. Time will tell who's right and who will be proven wrong.
First off, measuring performance is different with goalies than it is with forwards or defensemen. So, I don't think it's apples-to-apples to point out that I'm not predicting a regression for Bjugstad. I'm not predicting a regression for a guy like Gaudreau either. Now, I do think BC will see a drop in secondary scoring, but as I mention, I think that will have more to do with their defensive losses than with any regression in play from their forwards.
Now, while it isn't a certainty that goalies regress to their mean after a above average season, or progress to their mean after a poor season, history shows that usually they do. And when I say "regress to their mean", I'm not saying all the way to their mean, I am saying "to" or "towards" their mean.
How much will Milner's numbers regress (sounds like we all agree he won't put up the same guady numbers)? Who knows. But, considering BC's losses defensively, I am predicting that his numbers are much closer to his mean numbers than they are to last year's numbers.
That's my opinion. Feel free to disagree. Time will tell who's right and who will be proven wrong.
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JDUBBS1280
MN Hockey Enthusiast
Re: Pre-Season Predictions
And FYI... Save Percentage is and always will be a better indicator of goalie performance than Goals Against ad factors such as defensive performance can effect a goalie's GAA.
And if you look at Wilcox's career Save Percentage FS23, it is quite respectable. In fact, as I have shown, it is better than Patterson's. Which is why I think you are over-selling the goaltending concerns for Minnesota, and why I firmly believe they are the team to beat this season.
They are returning the most scoring in the nation by far, they are returning everyone defensively, and they have more than capable options in net.
And FYI... Save Percentage is and always will be a better indicator of goalie performance than Goals Against ad factors such as defensive performance can effect a goalie's GAA.
And if you look at Wilcox's career Save Percentage FS23, it is quite respectable. In fact, as I have shown, it is better than Patterson's. Which is why I think you are over-selling the goaltending concerns for Minnesota, and why I firmly believe they are the team to beat this season.
They are returning the most scoring in the nation by far, they are returning everyone defensively, and they have more than capable options in net.
Fighting Sioux 23
New member
Re: Pre-Season Predictions
I said exactly this in my post...no need to repeat it. My point was that players at any position typically follow great seasons with (at least) solid seasons (goalies included). The presumption then is that if Milner has a solid season, BC should be just fine.
Can you please use several instances to prove this? I'd love to see the statistics on this thesis, largely because I have no idea whether it is true (although it does not seem valid to me). It seems that you are saying that if Goalie #1 has a mediocre season in season A, then follows that up with another mediocre season in season B, has a breakout year in season C, that Goalie #1 should then revert back to the goalie that he was in seasons A and B. That should limit this analysis to goalies in their senior season. Also, please use just College statistics. Junior and Professional hockey are just too dissimilar to be meaningful in this type of analysis. Further, make sure to look at a wide range of goalies. I'd hate for you to do a lot of work to come up with 4-5 examples, only to have someone else come up with 20 examples that show the exact opposite. Thanks.
I said exactly this in my post...no need to repeat it. My point was that players at any position typically follow great seasons with (at least) solid seasons (goalies included). The presumption then is that if Milner has a solid season, BC should be just fine.
JDUBBS said:
Can you please use several instances to prove this? I'd love to see the statistics on this thesis, largely because I have no idea whether it is true (although it does not seem valid to me). It seems that you are saying that if Goalie #1 has a mediocre season in season A, then follows that up with another mediocre season in season B, has a breakout year in season C, that Goalie #1 should then revert back to the goalie that he was in seasons A and B. That should limit this analysis to goalies in their senior season. Also, please use just College statistics. Junior and Professional hockey are just too dissimilar to be meaningful in this type of analysis. Further, make sure to look at a wide range of goalies. I'd hate for you to do a lot of work to come up with 4-5 examples, only to have someone else come up with 20 examples that show the exact opposite. Thanks.
Re: Pre-Season Predictions
We all know it's your opinion, etc. You don't need to keep saying that.
Also, what history do you have? Did you find some article about it? Do you have any stats that can be viewed as a pretty good sample size?
We all know it's your opinion, etc. You don't need to keep saying that.
Also, what history do you have? Did you find some article about it? Do you have any stats that can be viewed as a pretty good sample size?
Re: Pre-Season Predictions
Have you ever read his blog? Relax isn't in his vocabulary. Go to his UAA blog and you will know what I'm talking about. Bias is an understatement.
Fighting Sioux 23
New member
Re: Pre-Season Predictions
I'm not disagreeing with you about Minnesota. I had them ranked #3 on my list, and I agree with pretty much everything you say here. Of course, there will always be the question mark for whoever is in net for Minnesota until he erases that question mark, but again, I agree that whoever winds up in net for the Gophers should do just fine.
Given that, I would take BC or Western over the Gophers this year (as much as anyone can pick a team in July for a hypothetical game to be played in March/April), but Minnesota should be in the mix come NCAA Tournament time.
I'm not disagreeing with you about Minnesota. I had them ranked #3 on my list, and I agree with pretty much everything you say here. Of course, there will always be the question mark for whoever is in net for Minnesota until he erases that question mark, but again, I agree that whoever winds up in net for the Gophers should do just fine.
Given that, I would take BC or Western over the Gophers this year (as much as anyone can pick a team in July for a hypothetical game to be played in March/April), but Minnesota should be in the mix come NCAA Tournament time.
Re: Pre-Season Predictions
Plus who really cares what he thinks, he is a fan of UAA for crap sake.
Plus who really cares what he thinks, he is a fan of UAA for crap sake.
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: Pre-Season Predictions
FS23 is completely correct - using USHL numbers from 4 seasons ago to predict next year's performance is obviously flawed. Look at his actual NCAA career numbers:
Milner's Career Mean: 56 games/1.97 GAA/0.925 SV%
Even if he regresses from last year's numbers *halfway* toward his career average, that will give him a GAA of 1.81 and a SV% of 0.931. With all the scoring BC returns, no way does that sort of goaltending cause them to miss the tournament - I think even you would have to agree.
In which case, you're hanging your ENTIRE prediction of BC missing the tournament on his USHL numbers from 4 years ago. And then you wonder why nobody takes you seriously...
FS23 is completely correct - using USHL numbers from 4 seasons ago to predict next year's performance is obviously flawed. Look at his actual NCAA career numbers:
Milner's Career Mean: 56 games/1.97 GAA/0.925 SV%
Even if he regresses from last year's numbers *halfway* toward his career average, that will give him a GAA of 1.81 and a SV% of 0.931. With all the scoring BC returns, no way does that sort of goaltending cause them to miss the tournament - I think even you would have to agree.
In which case, you're hanging your ENTIRE prediction of BC missing the tournament on his USHL numbers from 4 years ago. And then you wonder why nobody takes you seriously...
Fighting Sioux 23
New member
Re: Pre-Season Predictions
Wilcox had better stats than Shi(t)br(ick) did in the USHL, so he will obviously be a better goalie.
Wilcox had better stats than Shi(t)br(ick) did in the USHL, so he will obviously be a better goalie.
JDUBBS1280
MN Hockey Enthusiast
I keep repeating it because I am constantly attacked on this board. If people (not pointing at you) would allow me to have an opinion instead of treating everything I say as a declaration of fact, I wouldn't have to constantly clarify that which should be a given.
Anyways, I have read a lot of articles involving advanced stats in the past. And as a Minnesota Wild fan, we are constantly reminded that our goaltending performance will eventually regress to our goaltender's means. And the advanced stats gurus always seem to be right.
Most recently, do a search for advanced stats articles concerning the Minnesota Wild from November-December of last year (when the Wild had the best record in the NHL thru 1/3 of the year due to hot goaltending).
Milner had an incredibly hot second half last year. Incredibly hot second half. Could he keep that up? It's not impossible, but I think odds/history are against it.
How far will his play regress? I would normally guess somewhere between last season't numbers and his mean numbers. But considering BC's defensive losses, I am guessing a little more than that.
If I had to guess, I'd say his Save Percentage regresses to it's mean or a little bit above. Somewhere in the range of 0.916-0.925. His Goals Against, on the other hand, will regress much more because of your losses defensively. In other words, there will be more defensive break downs resulting in goals. This number is much less in his control. I am guessing he'll have a Save Percentage at or north of his mean. Somewhere between 2.3-2.4.