Pre-Season Predictions

[JDUBBS1280]

Number of teams did that better than +.75 last year: 8
Number of them that made the tournament: 8
1, 2, or 3 seeds: 7

The only 4-seed with a +.75 or better scoring average was Air Force.

The team with the highest goal differential who missed the tournament was Quinnipiac at +0.6 per game. The highest HEA team who missed the tournament was Merrimack at +.52.

Bottom line: if BC puts up +.75 goals per game next season, they are a lock for the tournament, nowhere near the bubble.

Interesting stuff. Thanks for this. I might have to re-evaluate my prediction. I still don't think that will change my top 5, but I may have to do a top 16 rankings to see where I would slip BC in.

 

[UncleRay]

Re: Pre-Season Predictions

Why I think BC will be a bubble team, and why I am going out on a small limb and predicting they miss the tourney:

1). Lots of turnover defensively. Very tough for freshmen defensemen to step in and play at a high level.
2). They will see a significant regression in goaltending. When I say "significant", I don't mean Milner will play horribly, but rather closer to his career mean (which will be significantly below last year's numbers).
3). They will see a drop in scoring. Partially because of losses, but mostly because they will struggle more to move the puck out of the defensive zone and up to their forwards because of their losses defensively.

Painting with a broad stoke, it is difficult for freshmen D to step in effectively. But if you look at the fine print (read: facts), you will see that Jewwy succeeds there on an ongoing basis.

Last year's top 5 returning scorers for BC had 29, 26, 24, 21 & 20 points respectively the previous season; while this upcoming season their top 5 returning scorers had 45, 40, 39, 36 & 28 points respectively the previous season. Regardless of who they lost or what JDUBBS thinks, facts are facts and this points to an even higher scoring group of forwards than last season right out of the gate. As for the D, sure they lose some key guys (Domoulin and Cross), but they've won it all skating 4 Freshmen D and made the final a couple other times skating 3 Freshmen D, so not a big deal, especially with the talent they have coming in at that position. And in goal, I think it's wishful thinking to suggest that Milner is going to regress. He's one of the best goalies in the game, period! Just like every other year, BC will be shooting for a National Championship and anything less will be considered a big disappointment.

To put this into perspective, BC would have to average 30 shots on goal allowed to get roughly those numbers (.923 sv% w/2.31 GAA). Over the last 5 years, BC has averaged roughly 27.5 shots on-goal allowed. The best season in that bunch? 2010. That year BC allowed only 26.25 shots on goal. Oh, BC also had 4 Freshman defensemen (that played a combined 128 games) and 3 Sophomore defensemen (that played a combined 84 games) that season. The Eagles had only one upperclassmen defenseman. Now, I forget...how did BC manage that season?

I think Jerry York knows what he's doing.

They are returning a 5hit-ton of scoring, have a coaching staff adept at quickly developing inexperienced defensemen, and are returning a goalie ranked #3 in GAA and #2 in Save % this past season. The only question I have is whether or not they get a #1 seed.

Now I've gotta go wash my mouth out. FN Eagles.

 

[Onion Man]

Re: Pre-Season Predictions

2008-09 (Waterloo/USHL): 31 games/2.90 GAA/0.902 SV%
2009-10 (Boston College): 14 games/2.32 GAA/0.909 SV%
2010-11 (Boston College): 8 games/2.68 GAA/0.899 SV%
2011-12 (Boston College): 34 games/1.66 GAA/0.937 SV%

So to summarize, statisticallly, the more minutes Milner plays, the better he is. He is their primary goalie next year so you figure he's going to "regress"? Do you have any idea how dumb you sound? Deep down I think you do. If you are that confident, you should put your money where your mouth is. I think if BC makes the tournament you should leave this message board forever.

Dubbs is just butthurt that BC ran a train on his Gophers in Tampa and somehow this is his way of sticking it to them.

 

[JDUBBS1280]

So to summarize, statisticallly, the more minutes Milner plays, the better he is. He is their primary goalie next year so you figure he's going to "regress"? Do you have any idea how dumb you sound? Deep down I think you do. If you are that confident, you should put your money where your mouth is. I think if BC makes the tournament you should leave this message board forever.

Dubbs is just butthurt that BC ran a train on his Gophers in Tampa and somehow this is his way of sticking it to them.

Perfect example of someone incapable of making a rational point, so he resorts to name calling. You were too busy thinking up that witty response to realize that everyone else has agreed with me that Milner's numbers will regress. There has only been disagreement on how much. So it looks like you're in the minority that thinks he'll put up as good numbers this year. Would you care to wager your existence on this board on that?

If he puts up as good or better numbers, I leave forever. If he puts up worse numbers, you leave forever. I mean, according to you, he only gets better the more he plays. You should have no problem taking this wager

 

[SJHovey]

Re: Pre-Season Predictions

If he puts up as good or better numbers, I leave forever. If he puts up worse numbers, you leave forever. I mean, according to you, he only gets better the more he plays. You should have no problem taking this wager

You willing to make the same bet with respect to your prediction BC doesn't make the tournament?

 

[sterlippo1]

Re: Pre-Season Predictions

Do you have any idea how dumb you sound? Deep down I think you do.

he absolutely knows..........it's part of his schtick i say!

 

[JDUBBS1280]

You willing to make the same bet with respect to your prediction BC doesn't make the tournament?

Nope. If I am going to wager at those stakes, it will have to be something I'm very certain of.

I already admitted that I am going out on somewhat of a small limb with that prediction. I am actually rethinking that prediction a bit after reading LynahFan's most recent post. I don't think the information will change my Top 5. Still don't see them making that. And they may not even be in my Top 10. I have to sit down when I get some time and put together a Top 16 list and see where exactly I'd put BC. I will put it this way, I am certainly not as high on BC this year as some are. I think they'll really struggle defensively.

 

[UncleRay]

Re: Pre-Season Predictions

Careful you don't trip. Backpedaling that fast can be really dangerous.

 

[burd]

Re: Pre-Season Predictions

Gophers: Undefeated except for a tie at SCSU, MacNaughton, Broadmoor, WCHA FF, West Regional champions, NC and because they are so good the NHL will insert them for the 8th place team in the Eastern conference and they will beat the Wild 4-1 in the Stanley Cup finals.

They will have the talent to do all these things, but once again they will be betrayed by their gutless, heartless, mindless, inbred, slopeheaded character and will be a nonfactor by early March.

 

[KnowItAll]

Re: Pre-Season Predictions

Relax, dude. Predicting coach of the year is the equivalent of predicting which team you think will do much better than they did the year before. With returning players, incoming talent, why is that so ridiculous? Also, if there's a junior who had a great year and returns for his senior year, wouldn't that player be a logical choice for player of the year? These types of predictions aren't new.

JDUBBS, I agree that Milner probably won't duplicate the numbers he ended last season with. But, just because player X has a breakout year doesn't automatically mean that the next year they will regress to what they've done in the past.

generally a goalies' statistics are the result of the team in front of him (Yann Danis, notwithstanding).. I think all he is saying is that Milner is not going to have the defensive corps in front of him that he had last year... therefore "his" numbers are going to suffer

what is wrong with saying that?

 

[JDUBBS1280]

Careful you don't trip. Backpedaling that fast can be really dangerous.

Not back peddling at all. I'm just not so thick headed as to not be able to re-evaluate my opinions in light of new information. Still not saying BC will make the tourney, but I will look at it a little closer and let you know if I do change that opinion

 

[FiveHole12]

Re: Pre-Season Predictions

The least of my worries this season for the Eagles would be Parker Milner. He is positionally sound and quick to recover (reminds me a little of Jimmy Howard, smaller version). Milner's only problem for the first half of last season was handling the hard shot that hit him high in the chest area. He would fumble it, lose site of it and was unable to cover the rebound that landed just beneath him. It got so teams were aiming at his upper body and waiting for the puck to drop to the crease. His early puck handling troubles had turned a few wins into ties and a few ties into losses. We hadn't seen anything like this at all previously in Milner's time at BC.

Then it changed. He had lost his starting role for the 2 losses at Maine in mid January and then came back with some big wins. You could see he was much more relaxed and confident. He made a comment sometime after regaining the starting role, something like... "I'm not a John Muse or Cory Schneider. That's not my style. I've got to be me and play like Parker Milner." He went on a 19 game winning streak, making the tough saves look easy and making a number of hilite reel stops down the stretch.

Head games... Milner figured it out. Personally, I think he's going to have a fabulous senior season.

 

[Slap Shot]

Re: Pre-Season Predictions

They will have the talent to do all these things, but once again they will be betrayed by their gutless, heartless, mindless, inbred, slopeheaded character and will be a nonfactor by early March.

2000 - ???

btw - didn't Dubbs already bet a ladies drink BC won't make the tourney? Can't back out of that bet now.

 

[UncleRay]

Re: Pre-Season Predictions

He's not backing out. He's "re-evaluating" a position he emphatically took with the same information available to him as was available to the sentient masses. Now a team that he emphatically stated "won't even make the tourney" could possibly be just outside of his top 5. Even without the glasses I need to see, I can recognize that as backpedaling.

 

[JDUBBS1280]

2000 - ???

btw - didn't Dubbs already bet a ladies drink BC won't make the tourney? Can't back out of that bet now.

I will honor those bets, even if I change my opinion before the season begins. A bet is a bet

 

[JDUBBS1280]

He's not backing out. He's "re-evaluating" a position he emphatically took with the same information available to him as was available to the sentient masses. Now a team that he emphatically stated "won't even make the tourney" could possibly be just outside of his top 5. Even without the glasses I need to see, I can recognize that as backpedaling.

No, I had a civilized discussion with another poster who advised me of the fact that even a 0.6-0.75 goal differential (though far less than what BC had last year) would most likely be safely in the tournament.

This is contrary to what I previously believed. If true, it will change my opinion. I'll have to look into that.

And I haven't formally changed my opinion as of yet. I didn't get to where I am in life by blindly taking people's word for things

 

[uaafanblog]

Re: Pre-Season Predictions

10 hours of this > this thread

 

[carltonbarrett]

Re: Pre-Season Predictions

As I stated earlier, BC under York has made the final 3 times (winning it once) skating 3 or 4 Freshmen D, so how can you say that they are going to be in trouble skating 3 this year, especially when you consider how good these incoming freshmen are? I can MAYBE see how how you'd put them in the back half of the top 10, but not make the tourney? C'mon, get real.

 

[JDUBBS1280]

Re: Pre-Season Predictions

FiveHole12 - I never said Milner will play poorly. I'm just certain he won't play as well as last season. In other words, I am confident he will have less than a 0.937 save percentage.

And all of his statistics aren't completely in his control. Other factors can influence his Goals Against Average.

For instance, the fact that BC lost 3 high quality defensemen that they will be replacing with freshmen. Regardless of how talented they are, they are freshmen. Freshmen playing the position that is the toughest to transition to NCAA hockey.

I think Milner's GAA would have gone up some anyways (no goalie stays that hot), but considering the fact that BC's defensive losses will likely result in more defensive turnovers, more defensive zone time, more shots, and more high quality shots, I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that his GAA will regress even further.

I predicted a 2.33 GAA and a 0.923 SV%.

That save percentage is still pretty **** good, and the GAA isn't horrible.

 

[carltonbarrett]

Re: Pre-Season Predictions

For instance, the fact that BC lost 3 high quality defensemen that they will be replacing with freshmen. Regardless of how talented they are, they are freshmen. Freshmen playing the position that is the toughest to transition to NCAA hockey.

Edwin Shea was decent, but certainly not a "high quality" defenseman like Domoulin or Cross. And AGAIN, you refuse to accept the fact that BC has in fact been very successful when skating 3 or more freshmen on defense, as in several trips to the NCAA final. Also, you don't replace seniors with freshmen. The underclassmen replace the seniors and the freshmen replace the underclassmen.