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Patty Kaz 2012
- Thread starter PrincetonFan
- Start date
Re: Patty Kaz 2012
Handful of goalies with similar save percentages as Raty but undoubtedly facing higher quality shots then those allowed by the Minnesota D.
My original thought was that four Gophers were deserving of nominations to the list of 25 or whatever it is: Räty, Kessel, Schoullis, and Bozek. Of those, only Bozek had a strong January in terms of being consistent, and she didn't put up numbers. Voters don't care about the number of times that she erases a teammate's mistake, wins a puck battle, or lugs the puck out of danger, so she'll likely fare better for something like WCHA DPotY than the Kaz voting. I'd say Räty still deserves top 10, because without her, Minnesota would be BU. However, I won't be entirely shocked if the Gophers are ignored.
I can't see her winning it, in part because she isn't yet Jessie Vetter, and Vetter didn't generate serious buzz until she was a senior. I wouldn't rule out the top three, though.
Maybe she was just the first one to get the memo titled, "Report to Team Canada Training Camp in Ithaca, NY."
Handful of goalies with similar save percentages as Raty but undoubtedly facing higher quality shots then those allowed by the Minnesota D.
Re: Patty Kaz 2012
The reason I think Rigsby has a shot is that I don't think any of the forward candidates stand out in particular, while Rigsby has posted a .950 save pct. in the WCHA, and the next best candidate is Raty at .934. That's pretty remarkable. I'm not sure full time goalies have come close to posting a .950 save pct in the wcha -- I recall that Kim Martin season I mentioned was .948. Vetter was .942 her Kaz year.
which is why I would've initially thought she didn't have a shot.
True, but there are reasons for that. Vetter's junior year in 07-08 was clearly Wisconsin's least successful during her tenure, while Kim Martin was outstanding. During Vetter's sophomore year of 06-07, she was still splitting time with Dufour, and she was teammate's with the previous season's Kaz winner who continued to be outstanding.
The reason I think Rigsby has a shot is that I don't think any of the forward candidates stand out in particular, while Rigsby has posted a .950 save pct. in the WCHA, and the next best candidate is Raty at .934. That's pretty remarkable. I'm not sure full time goalies have come close to posting a .950 save pct in the wcha -- I recall that Kim Martin season I mentioned was .948. Vetter was .942 her Kaz year.
ARM
Fan of chipmunk-like mascots.
Re: Patty Kaz 2012
Räty was .962 as a rookie, although that was an Olympic year where the talent is down. I don't say you're wrong about Rigsby, but if I ask people to talk about Wisconsin, how many will mention her before Decker and Knight? What you said about Bauer overshadowing Vetter applies, because Vetter put up a rather attention-grabbing NCAA run as a rookie, which Rigsby didn't quite match. I can see maybe top 3, but not winning.
Re: Patty Kaz 2012
I agree the Decker is probably more likely to win than Rigsby, but I don't agree you can immediately discount Rigsby's chances of winning based on Vetter's Kaz history.
Agreed, but I think Rigsby has a shot once someone sits down and look at what she has actually accomplished, which a Kaz committee would do. I would give Rigsby less of a chance if the Kaz were decided by a wider body of voters who do not interact with each other, such as the Heisman or the baseball MVPs.
While I agree Rigsby did not have the same kind of tournament that Vetter had freshman year, I think Rigsby has a better shot to win the Kaz her sophomore year because (1) Rigsby is not splitting time like Vetter back then, and (2) When Bauer overshadowed Vetter in 06-07, Bauer was the leading scorer on the Badgers by 20 points: this season none of the Badger forwards have distinguished themselves to that degree.
I agree the Decker is probably more likely to win than Rigsby, but I don't agree you can immediately discount Rigsby's chances of winning based on Vetter's Kaz history.
northhockey
New member
Re: Patty Kaz 2012
My case for JLam is getting stronger every game!!
My case for JLam is getting stronger every game!!
Re: Patty Kaz 2012
Yes, though I think she needs to make a big impact in the remaining 2 or 3 games against Minnesota to have a shot at winning. She's surely a top 3 favorite at the moment.
Re: Patty Kaz 2012
To add, I don't think any of the other top Kaz candidates have earned league all-Academic honors like the Lams did last year. That could make a huge difference in the outcome in a year like this whn there are a number of solid candidates and it's harder to distinguish them from on-ice performance.
To add, I don't think any of the other top Kaz candidates have earned league all-Academic honors like the Lams did last year. That could make a huge difference in the outcome in a year like this whn there are a number of solid candidates and it's harder to distinguish them from on-ice performance.
Re: Patty Kaz 2012
JLam is now No. 1 in the country in per game scoring.
Bram being kept off the scoreboard in a loss against Cornell tonight hurts her chances.
Schelling's candidacy is looking stronger as she maintains a .940+ save pct. and Northeastern has a good shot at the Hockey East titles.
JLam is now No. 1 in the country in per game scoring.
Bram being kept off the scoreboard in a loss against Cornell tonight hurts her chances.
Schelling's candidacy is looking stronger as she maintains a .940+ save pct. and Northeastern has a good shot at the Hockey East titles.
Re: Patty Kaz 2012
So if you compare Raty, Rigsby, and Schelling, they all have GAA around 1.50, and similar save pct. though Raty trails the others by a noticeable amount.
You do need to consider that Schelling is facing much weaker competition. Even the toughest Hockey East rivals BU & BC are in the middle of the pack nationally scoring -- it's not impressive holding these teams to three goals. So even though they all have similar GAAs, Raty and Rigsby's GAAs are clearly far more impressive. One measure says that if these teams played league average schedules, Minnesota & Wisconsin would allow about 1 goal per game and Northeastern closer to 2.
Now you can argue that Minnesota and Wisconsin have stronger D than Northeastern, so maybe that negates that difference to some degree, but I think it's hard to be a Kaz winning goalie without a more clear cut case, and that'll make it tough for Schelling to win.
So if you compare Raty, Rigsby, and Schelling, they all have GAA around 1.50, and similar save pct. though Raty trails the others by a noticeable amount.
You do need to consider that Schelling is facing much weaker competition. Even the toughest Hockey East rivals BU & BC are in the middle of the pack nationally scoring -- it's not impressive holding these teams to three goals. So even though they all have similar GAAs, Raty and Rigsby's GAAs are clearly far more impressive. One measure says that if these teams played league average schedules, Minnesota & Wisconsin would allow about 1 goal per game and Northeastern closer to 2.
Now you can argue that Minnesota and Wisconsin have stronger D than Northeastern, so maybe that negates that difference to some degree, but I think it's hard to be a Kaz winning goalie without a more clear cut case, and that'll make it tough for Schelling to win.
ARM
Fan of chipmunk-like mascots.
Re: Patty Kaz 2012
Goalies are so difficult to compare to skaters, and even to other goaltenders, because the task can vary so much with supporting cast and opponent. It's like comparing the answers from two physics experiments without any units, so for all we know, we're comparing ohms to grams.
I do think that Schelling benefits from a couple intangibles. Northeastern is having a much-improved season, the team's best in many years. Plus, in any NU game that I've watched where she has played, it is pretty obvious that she is in the team's top two players for that particular game, not just overall. The Lams are similar in that regard, but because of the presence of Karvinen, games exist where one of them may slide to third.
Goalies are so difficult to compare to skaters, and even to other goaltenders, because the task can vary so much with supporting cast and opponent. It's like comparing the answers from two physics experiments without any units, so for all we know, we're comparing ohms to grams.
Re: Patty Kaz 2012
Schelling probably has a shot, but I do think Northeastern needs to win both Hockey East titles, and she needs to have a dominant performance in the tournament. But it's probably the Lams who most control their own destiny, since they're in the toughest league, facing one of nation's three toughest goalies two or three more times before the voting.
Agreed, and that helps Schelling relative to Rigsby or Raty. The Lams also benefit from leading a program to its best season ever.
Sure, it's hard, and pick an award winner is a social science, not a physical science.
Schelling probably has a shot, but I do think Northeastern needs to win both Hockey East titles, and she needs to have a dominant performance in the tournament. But it's probably the Lams who most control their own destiny, since they're in the toughest league, facing one of nation's three toughest goalies two or three more times before the voting.
Re: Patty Kaz 2012
Some perspective:
Northeastern, in the 4 seasons before Schelling
07-08: 7-24-3
06-07: 5-26-2
05-06: 8-24-1
04-05: 3-25-4
Cornell, in the 4 seasons before Johnston
06-07: 4-23-2
05-06: 9-18-1
04-05: 3-22-3
03-04: 7-21-2
North Dakota, in the 4 seasons before the Lams
09-10: 8-22-4
08-09: 13-19-4
07-08: 4-26-6
06-07: 3-31-2
Not doing this to compare candidates, just beginning to describe what kind of impact this year's top candidates have made on their programs.
Also interesting that five yeas ago, Cornell/Northeastern/North Dakota hhad 12 wins TOTAL between the three programs. This year it's 58 and counting.
Some perspective:
Northeastern, in the 4 seasons before Schelling
07-08: 7-24-3
06-07: 5-26-2
05-06: 8-24-1
04-05: 3-25-4
Cornell, in the 4 seasons before Johnston
06-07: 4-23-2
05-06: 9-18-1
04-05: 3-22-3
03-04: 7-21-2
North Dakota, in the 4 seasons before the Lams
09-10: 8-22-4
08-09: 13-19-4
07-08: 4-26-6
06-07: 3-31-2
Not doing this to compare candidates, just beginning to describe what kind of impact this year's top candidates have made on their programs.
Also interesting that five yeas ago, Cornell/Northeastern/North Dakota hhad 12 wins TOTAL between the three programs. This year it's 58 and counting.
ARM
Fan of chipmunk-like mascots.
Re: Patty Kaz 2012
Does Johnston have the total numbers to be in the discussion to win the award? Her numbers almost exactly match those of Carolyne Prévost, and while Prévost is surrounded by talent, so is Johnston. Prévost doesn't take the "weak opponents" hit that some do, because she didn't play versus Lindenwood. So given they have the same number of games, same number of assists, and Prévost has one more goal, it is tough from here to see how if one performed a pairwise ranking of players that Johnson would win a comparison with Prévost. IMO, that should be a push. I realize that Johnston will get far more votes, because East voters need someone to love, but that doesn't really speak to merit.
Should voters consider that to any degree at all? Obviously, it's not part of the published criteria and you're not saying that they should, but if they were to look at influence on a program, how does one separate Rebecca Johnston impact from Doug Derraugh impact, or the Lams versus Brian Idalski? Given Cornell made the title game in 2010 while Johnston was away, she may have helped shape the current roster, but one can't make any claim that the Big Red would be a bad team were she removed.
Does Johnston have the total numbers to be in the discussion to win the award? Her numbers almost exactly match those of Carolyne Prévost, and while Prévost is surrounded by talent, so is Johnston. Prévost doesn't take the "weak opponents" hit that some do, because she didn't play versus Lindenwood. So given they have the same number of games, same number of assists, and Prévost has one more goal, it is tough from here to see how if one performed a pairwise ranking of players that Johnson would win a comparison with Prévost. IMO, that should be a push. I realize that Johnston will get far more votes, because East voters need someone to love, but that doesn't really speak to merit.
Re: Patty Kaz 2012
http://cornellbigred.com/documents/2012/1/30/season_stats_thru_clarkson.pdf
http://www.uwbadgers.com/sports/w-hockey/stats/2011-2012/teamcume.html#TEAM.IND
Johnston is the best Cornell forward in +/- on a team that's No. 2 or 3 in the country. That's going to help. You can do all the strength of schedule adjustments you want, but being the best forward on your team will help a lot.
The big criteria are contribution to overall team success and play in the clutch. I don't know how they compare in terms of their scoring in the most important games and situations, but I don't think you can immediately conclude it is a push looking at the aggregate goals and assists totals.
I'd say the answer to this question is no. I'm just still amazed by the turnarounds.
Compare the overall team stats:
http://cornellbigred.com/documents/2012/1/30/season_stats_thru_clarkson.pdf
http://www.uwbadgers.com/sports/w-hockey/stats/2011-2012/teamcume.html#TEAM.IND
Johnston is the best Cornell forward in +/- on a team that's No. 2 or 3 in the country. That's going to help. You can do all the strength of schedule adjustments you want, but being the best forward on your team will help a lot.
The big criteria are contribution to overall team success and play in the clutch. I don't know how they compare in terms of their scoring in the most important games and situations, but I don't think you can immediately conclude it is a push looking at the aggregate goals and assists totals.
Re: Patty Kaz 2012
Certainly can't argue with your logic too much.
Cornell has a lot of very talanted players, but Johnston stands out the most in just about every game I've watched Cornell play, even when she isn't putting up huge point totals in a game.
Do I think she will win the award? Probably not. Do I think she is deserving? Absolutely.
Certainly can't argue with your logic too much.
Cornell has a lot of very talanted players, but Johnston stands out the most in just about every game I've watched Cornell play, even when she isn't putting up huge point totals in a game.
Do I think she will win the award? Probably not. Do I think she is deserving? Absolutely.
Re: Patty Kaz 2012
Yes, all that said, I agree Johnston's lack of aggregate stats will probably pose an obstacle to her winning the award.
But one final point -- having the Kaz voting after the conference tournaments could play a huge role in the swinging the outcome of the award. It'll help a lot to be clearly the best player in your conference. That could give Johnston or Schelling a clear chance to stand out when they might otherwise be overshadowed.
Yes, all that said, I agree Johnston's lack of aggregate stats will probably pose an obstacle to her winning the award.
But one final point -- having the Kaz voting after the conference tournaments could play a huge role in the swinging the outcome of the award. It'll help a lot to be clearly the best player in your conference. That could give Johnston or Schelling a clear chance to stand out when they might otherwise be overshadowed.
ARM
Fan of chipmunk-like mascots.
Re: Patty Kaz 2012
I'm not saying Prévost should win; I'm saying Johnston has had a Prévost season.
Minnesota: 2+0=2; 0+2=2; 1+2=3; 0+0=0. Total: 3+4=7
UMD: 1+0=1; 2+2=4; 0+0=0; 0+3=3. Total: 3+5=8
UND: 3+0=3; 0+2=2; 1+3=4; 3+0=3. Total: 7+5=12
So for 12 games against the 3 highest-ranked WCHA opponents = 13+14=27. Clutch.
I'm not saying Prévost should win; I'm saying Johnston has had a Prévost season.
I don't think +/- ranking on a team is relevant for a player that missed 7 games, including the Lindenwood series. Of course other players on the team are going to have higher +/-, and that has nothing to do with offensive or defensive ability for Prévost.
That might matter if I said Prévost should win; I'm not.
Prévost has been very good in the clutch. Her numbers in four game series versus ...
Minnesota: 2+0=2; 0+2=2; 1+2=3; 0+0=0. Total: 3+4=7
UMD: 1+0=1; 2+2=4; 0+0=0; 0+3=3. Total: 3+5=8
UND: 3+0=3; 0+2=2; 1+3=4; 3+0=3. Total: 7+5=12
So for 12 games against the 3 highest-ranked WCHA opponents = 13+14=27. Clutch.
I'm sure she is great. The problem is, that others that we'll discuss are as well. If Johnston is the best, fine. I just don't want her viewed as the best because for some odd reason, the other ECAC teams are devoid of great players this year.