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Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

  • Thread starter Thread starter Priceless
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Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Numbers said:
Could someone tell me which conference tourneys have a 3rd place game:

I believe I know this:
WCHA - No
HE - No
ECAC - Yes

Help?
Click to expand...
Only the ECAC still has a 3rd place game. Every other conference has scrapped them.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Priceless said:
Only the ECAC still has a 3rd place game. Every other conference has scrapped them.
Click to expand...

Thanks. Have you found any interesting tidbits of info? One that surprised me is that Michigan ousting WMU greatly helps NoDame, because Michigan can become TUC easily in that case.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

I think Minnesota has clinched, even if they are swept by Bemidji State. The other WCHA teams still have work to do.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Fighting Sioux 23 said:
That's right. The CCHA got rid of the 3rd place game, and is having their Championship on Selection Sunday. I forgot about that.
Click to expand...

Yep, they had to get rid of it this year. The championship weekend got bumped from Friday-Saturday to Saturday-Sunday because of a Red Wings game.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Priceless said:
I think Minnesota has clinched, even if they are swept by Bemidji State. The other WCHA teams still have work to do.
Click to expand...

Clinched #1 seed or Clinched to be in field of 16? By the way, thanks to Moy, Priceless and Numbers for doing the dirty work with these projections
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

80Miracle said:
Clinched #1 seed or Clinched to be in field of 16? By the way, thanks to Moy, Priceless and Numbers for doing the dirty work with these projections
Click to expand...
A playoff berth. There are still (convoluted) ways to get them out of a 1-seed. Win this weekend and they should be a lock for the 1-seed in Grand Rapids (unless the 'flight is a flight' thing forces the NCAA to send them to Manchester which I don't expect)
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Numbers said:
Not sure he even does that Priceless. He mostly uses Monte Carlos, because even after quarterfinal weekend, the number of permutations is: 2^17 * 3^2, which is obviously a very huge number, and for every one, the computer has to run the PWR calculation. This is about 2.5 million permutations. That is the number of seconds in 1 whole month. So, even if he could code that operation, if his computer could calculated and log 1 permutation every second, it would take a month to do the job, and that's too long.:):):):) :):):)
Click to expand...

Yeah, I switch from monte carlos to exhaustive search after the quarter finals, basically when the calculators appear I'll run the full range of possibilities.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Numbers said:
Not sure he even does that Priceless. He mostly uses Monte Carlos, because even after quarterfinal weekend, the number of permutations is: 2^17 * 3^2, which is obviously a very huge number, and for every one, the computer has to run the PWR calculation. This is about 2.5 million permutations. That is the number of seconds in 1 whole month. So, even if he could code that operation, if his computer could calculated and log 1 permutation every second, it would take a month to do the job, and that's too long.:):):):) :):):)
Click to expand...

What, don't like the thought of (131,072 * 9 = ) 1,179,648 combinations? RHamilton could do it. :p
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

FlagDUDE08 said:
What, don't like the thought of (131,072 * 9 = ) 1,179,648 combinations? RHamilton could do it. :p
Click to expand...

Sorry. I was working on the assumption there were 2 3rd place games, Turns out there is only one. So, divide by 3.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Perhaps we can help everyone who looks here by posting a short informational list about the process, in case someone new is wondering "Will my team qualify?"

1) THERE WILL BE 16 TEAMS INVITED, AND THERE WILL BE 4 SITES, MANCHESTER, PROVIDENCE, GRAND RAPIDS, AND TOLEDO

2) THE 16 TEAMS ARE: THE 5 CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT CHAMPIONS + THE NEXT 11 IN THE PAIRWISE LIST (CALLED PWR ON THIS SITE, AND OTHER THINGS ON OTHER SITES).

3) THE PAIRWISE LIST WORKS LIKE THIS:
a) MARK ANY TEAM WITH AN RPI OVER .5000 (RPI = ownwin%(.25)+oppwin%(.21)+oppoppwin%(.54)
b) COMPARE EACH PAIR OF TEAMS ON THAT LIST IN 4 CATEGORIES: RPI, RECORD VS TEAMS ON THE LIST, COMMON OPPONENTS, AND HEAD-2-HEAD
c) TABULATE NUMBER OF PWR COMPARISONS WON.

4) ONCE THE FIELD IS DETERMINED, THERE IS A SET OF GUIDELINES THE COMMITTEE FOLLOWS TO PLACE THE TEAMS. THE IMPORTANT ONES THAT SEEM IRON CLAD ARE:
a) ANY SCHOOL WHO IS HOSTING A REGIONAL AND QUALIFIES AUTOMATICALLY PLAYS AT HOME (NEW HAMPSHIRE, THIS MEANS YOU.)

b) THE TOP 4 IN THE PAIRWISE ARE PLACED AS #1 SEEDS, BEGINNING AT THE OVERALL #1, IN THE CLOSEST REGIONAL AVAILABLE. THIS IS SUPPOSEDLY SO THEIR FANS HAVE THE BEST ACCESS POSSIBLE. OF COURSE, HOSTING TAKES PRECEDENCE OVER EVEN THIS.

c) IN THE PAIRWISE LIST, 1-4 ARE THE #1s, 5-8 ARE THE #2s, ETC.

d) THERE WILL BE NO FIRST ROUND MATCHUPS OF CONFERENCE MATES UNLESS THEY ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO AVOID BECAUSE OF c). IN OTHER WORDS, IF 2 WCHA TEAMS ARE 1s, AND 3 WCHA TEAMS ARE 4s, IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO AVOID ONE GAME BETWEEN THEM, BECAUSE WE CAN'T CHANGE BANDS.

WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT:
Any bracket put up on this site this week is really meaningless. If you change one team, or move the overall seedings just a little bit, you would get a different bracket.

However, if you look at many brackets, patterns emerge. For example, QU is virtually guaranteed the overall #1, and they would go to Providence.
Paying attention to your teams seed band (1,2,3,4) probably has more meaning.

And, almost finally, the committee in its wisdom, put the 2 western regionals in Grand Rapids, MI and in Toledo, OH this year. Those cities are not close to very many schools, so for the sake of attendance it is far more likely that:
1) If WMU makes the field, they would go to GR, or Toledo, than out east (Grand Rapids most likely)
2) Same applies to NoDame, with a slight edge toward Toledo
3) Niagara probably has a slight draw to Toledo

And, finally, since QU is almost guaranteed to be in Providence, and they are not assumed to be a big gate draw, it is possible that some combination of BC, BU, Yale or RPI might end up in Prov, rather than in the west, for the sake of attendance.
 
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