Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

There are probably more teams that have clinched (N Dakota, St Cloud, New Hampster, Minnesota) but I won't know for sure until the playoffs are set in the WCHA and HEA tonight.

 

[Patman]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

There are probably more teams that have clinched (N Dakota, St Cloud, New Hampster, Minnesota) but I won't know for sure until the playoffs are set in the WCHA and HEA tonight.

Its a beautiful thing once we get past all the tie-breakers and stuff.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

If Alaska wins:

[B]Manchester (UNH)	Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
Lowell			Quinnipiac		Miami			Minnesota
New Hamp		Denver			Boston C		N Dakota
Mankato			Yale			St Cloud		W Michigan
RPI			Notre Dame		Niagara			Boston U

TUC line
Colorado College 0.5025
Merrimack 0.5019
--
Connecticut 0.4950

If MSU wins and advances

[B]Manchester (UNH)	Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)	        Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
Lowell			Quinnipiac		Miami			Minnesota
New Hamp		Denver			Boston C		N Dakota
St Cloud		Yale			Mankato			W Michigan
RPI			Boston U		Niagara			Notre Dame

TUC line
Colorado College 0.5024
Merrimack 0.5017
--
Connecticut 0.4951

 

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

If Alaska wins:

[B]Manchester (UNH)	Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
Lowell			Quinnipiac		Miami			Minnesota
New Hamp		Denver			Boston C		N Dakota
Mankato			Yale			St Cloud		W Michigan
RPI			Notre Dame		Niagara			Boston U

TUC line
Colorado College 0.5025
Merrimack 0.5019
--
Connecticut 0.4950

If MSU wins and advances

[B]Manchester (UNH)	Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)	        Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
Lowell			Quinnipiac		Miami			Minnesota
New Hamp		Denver			Boston C		N Dakota
St Cloud		Yale			Mankato			W Michigan
RPI			Boston U		Niagara			Notre Dame

TUC line
Colorado College 0.5024
Merrimack 0.5017
--
Connecticut 0.4951

Funny Priceless, I get the same results both ways. It looks like tomorrow can get complicated depending on the Denver game. and it seems the LSSU BGSU affects some RPIs enough to swap compares, too. Wow.

 

[Siouxfaninseattle]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

#2 seeds are New Hampshire, Denver, BC and North Dakota

 

[Bonin21]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

#2 seeds are New Hampshire, Denver, BC and North Dakota

I don't get it? You mean that they're all pretty good? I'm sure a ton is going to change, but it's kinda cool that the conference champs are one seeds at the moment. At least the ones that were celebrating with trophies tonight...

 

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

This is a quick reference post, for results about tomorrow. I am assuming AK wins tonight - leading 4-1 in the 3rd.
In all cases of tomorrow's results, there is no change in the #1s - QU, Minny, Miami, Lowell
In all cases of tomorrow's results, the #4s will be - Niagara, RPI, BU and NoDame/AK depending on AK's result tomorrow.

Then:
IF DEN wins tomorrow: the 2s will be: NoDak, Den, BC, UNH, with Den/BC very close in RPI, which could affect ordering. The 3s will be as now: Mankato, WMU, Yale and SC, with Yale and SC very close in rpi, which could change the ordering.
Prov: QU,BC,Mank,NoDame/AK
GR: Minny,Den,WMU,BU
Toledo: Miami,NoDak,Yale,Nia
Manch: Lowell,NH,SC,RPI

IF DEN ties tomorrow: the 2s will be: BC, NoDak, NH, Mankato with a couple of possibilities for NoDak/NH ordering, which doesn't matter because of NH hosting. The 3s will be: WMU, Den, Yale, SC, with Yale and SC again very close in rpi.
Prov: QU,Mank,Den,NoDame/AK
GR: Minny,NoDak,WMU,BU
Toledo: Miami,BC,Yale,Nia
Manch: Lowell,NH,SC,RPI

IF DEN loses tomorrow, the 2s will be: BC, NoDak, NH, Mankato, and the 3s will be WMU, Yale, SC, Den. However, in the case here where Lk Superior and Harvard win, there is a possbility that SC would get a slight boost in rpi and win the compare with Yale, in which case they jump all the way to 8th, and the rest of the order stays the same.Prov:
QU,Mank,Yale,NoDame/AK or QU,SC,Yale,NoDame/AK
GR: Minny,NoDak,WMU,BU or Minny,NoDak,WMU,BU
Toledo: Miami,BC,SC,Nia or Miami,BC,Mank,Nia
Manch: Lowell,NH,Den,RPI or Lowell,NH,Den,RPI

How is that for complicated? And, it's only 4 games.???

YMMV on the particulars of the bracket.

 

[Siouxfaninseattle]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

I don't get it? You mean that they're all pretty good? I'm sure a ton is going to change, but it's kinda cool that the conference champs are one seeds at the moment. At least the ones that were celebrating with trophies tonight...

Sorry that you don't get it - yes I mean that they are all "pretty good". About 20 NCs. You know, the ones celebrating the trophies.

 

[Bonin21]

Sorry that you don't get it - yes I mean that they are all "pretty good". About 20 NCs. You know, the ones celebrating the trophies.

Forgot how much a team has won in the past matters whatsoever in the current year. Michigan should be a 2 seed!

 

[IronRangeHockey]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Thanks to those who put in all the work on this thread (namely numbers and priceless, sorry if im leaving anyone out), i have been lurking for a couple/few seasons and I always refer to this/these threads.

Much appreciated.

 

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Priceless:
Given BU tenuous TUC situation (they are 3-0 vs MC, whom they face this week, and MC is right on the TUC cliff, and will fall off if BU wins the series), can BU still qualify for the NCAAs without winning the HE tourney?

 

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Priceless:
Given BU tenuous TUC situation (they are 3-0 vs MC, whom they face this week, and MC is right on the TUC cliff, and will fall off if BU wins the series), can BU still qualify for the NCAAs without winning the HE tourney?

I'll be running scenarios all day. That is one I'll be watching. Early indications are that they will have to make it to the HE Final and hope for help.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

3 playoff games today. This will be the last night of action for one team in each game. Michigan State @ Alaska, Harvard @ Dartmouth, Bowling Green @ Lake Superior

Eliminated:
Alabama-Huntsville
Penn State
Northeastern
Massachusetts
Bentley
Army
AIC
Sacred Heart
Northern Michigan
Clarkson
Colgate
Princeton

Need autobid to get in the field:
The three winners of today's games (except Dartmouth or Alaska)
All AHA teams except Niagara
Maine
Vermont
Merrimack
Ohio State
Ferris State
Michigan
St Lawrence
Brown
Cornell
Alaska-Anchorage
Bemidji State
Michigan Tech
Minnesota-Duluth
Colorado College

If your team is not listed above, you still have a chance at an at-large bid. I will be running more scenarios throughout the day and adding teams to this list as necessary. It is looking very seriously like BU is going to be added to this list.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Lowell and New Hampshire have NOT clinched but it appears Boston College has. None of the WCHA teams have clinched yet because first-round opponents could torpedo their RPI - just ask Denver.

 

[BC/HE]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Priceless, I think Robert Morris could still get in without the autobid but only if Air Force falls out as a TUC. For that to happen Canisius would probably have to sweep AFA.

 

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

3 playoff games today. This will be the last night of action for one team in each game. Michigan State @ Alaska, Harvard @ Dartmouth, Bowling Green @ Lake Superior

Eliminated:
Alabama-Huntsville
Penn State
Northeastern
Massachusetts
Bentley
Army
AIC
Sacred Heart
Northern Michigan
Clarkson
Colgate
Princeton

Need autobid to get in the field:
The three winners of today's games (except Dartmouth or Alaska)
All AHA teams except Niagara
Maine
Vermont
Merrimack
Ohio State
Ferris State
Michigan
St Lawrence
Brown
Cornell
Alaska-Anchorage
Bemidji State
Michigan Tech
Minnesota-Duluth
Colorado College

If your team is not listed above, you still have a chance at an at-large bid. I will be running more scenarios throughout the day and adding teams to this list as necessary. It is looking very seriously like BU is going to be added to this list.

Priceless,

I took a quick gander. If BU beats MC, MC drops off the cliff no matter what. So, give BU a sweep. Then, make Union lose their 1/4 final series in 2 games. Denver wins today, so Wisco plays Omaha. Give Omaha the win. I think that will keep BU ahead of Union, and even give them a little leeway.

Edit: In that last scenario, Omaha has to sweep.
And, should UAF win tonight (a loss does BU no good), then it is impossible to flip the BU/UAF compare without also flipping the NoDame/BU compare to NoDame. So, the above, with BU re-winning the Union and Wisconsin compares, is the best case. Union is necessary, because it's a +1, -1 situation.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Priceless, I think Robert Morris could still get in without the autobid but only if Air Force falls out as a TUC. For that to happen Canisius would probably have to sweep AFA.

They would then have to defeat Holy Cross and a loss to Niagara would give them a .545 TUC record and 17 PWR wins which would put them squarely on the bubble. It is possible, but extremely unlikely.

 

[Piels25]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

#2 seeds are New Hampshire, Denver, BC and North Dakota

Sorry that you don't get it - yes I mean that they are all "pretty good". About 20 NCs. You know, the ones celebrating the trophies.

Where's Waldo in that group?

 

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

If memory serves, Jim Dahl puts every permutation possible into a computer and it spits out the results, but I think that is after the QF round as the number of permutations is still too great.

Here is the Hockey East script
20130314 Me 0 ML 1 nc
20130315 Me 0 ML 1 nc
20130315 NH 0 Pv 1 nc
20130315 Vt 0 BC 1 nc
20130315 Mr 0 BU 1 nc
20130316 NH 0 Pv 1 nc
20130316 Vt 0 BC 1 nc
20130316 Mr 0 BU 1 nc
20130322 BU 0 BC 1 nc
20130322 Pv 0 ML 1 nc
20130323 BC 0 ML 1 nc

Edit: It looks like Providence needs to sweep UNH and STILL win a TUC game at the Garden to have any chance at an at-large.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

I can't get Minnesota or Miami ahead of Quinnipiac for the overall #1 seed. The Gophers had a chance to catch up by getting the 3 seed in the WCHA which would have earned them another TUC game but now as a 2 seed they are slotted for a bye. They can pass Quinnipiac in RPI but TUC is out of reach. Quinnipiac will be the top seed in Providence. As such, the Providence bracket is likely to be 1-8-9-16.