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Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

  • Thread starter Thread starter Priceless
  • Start date Start date
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Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Priceless said:
Haven't seen ths posted by anyone yet, so here is this week's bracketology and TUC update.

Code: 
[B]Manchester (UNH)	Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
Lowell			Quinnipiac		Miami			Minnesota
New Hamp		Mankato			Boston C		N Dakota
St Cloud		Yale			Denver			W Michigan
Niagara			Alaska			RPI			Notre Dame

Code: 
29	Co Coll 0.5042
30	Merr	0.5032
31	Cornell	0.5008
32	N Mich  0.5006
33	Brown	0.5003
---
34	Colgate	0.4963
35	Conn	0.4952
Click to expand...

You have two ECAC teams in Providence and none in Manchester. Wouldn't the Committee avoid that?
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Ralph Baer said:
Arlington, Texas? ;)
Click to expand...

This is the real tournament bracket, not the Futile Four. :p:D

Although, given the way the NC$$ has been lately, what with Tampa getting the FF and St. Louis getting the Icebreaker, it wouldn't surprise me to see a regional in the Dallas area.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Getting back to reality: Priceless has his current Bracket up: Let's analyze, starting with the #1 and #2 seed bands:

Providence: QU (1), Mankato (8)
Grand Rapids: Minny (2), NoDak (7)
Toledo: Miami (3), BC (6)
Manchester: Lowell (4), UNH (5)

These are straight out of the manual. It's 1/8, 2/7, 3/6, 4/5.

Now, the rest:
Prov: QU, Mankato, Yale (12), Alaska (16)
GR: Minny, NoDak, WMU (11), NoDame (14)
Toledo: Miami, BC, Denver (9), RPI (15)
Manchester: Lowell, UNH, SCSU (10), Niagara (13)

So, in the #3 band, BC and UNH have to oppose the WCHA teams. Priceless puts the lower #2 with the higher #3 (Denver with BC). This makes sense. Then, where ordinarily one would put WMU v Mankato, here Priceless has put WMU in Grand Rapids, because they are an attendance draw. Hence NoDak v WMU and Mankato v Yale.

In the #4 band, he puts #16 v #1, which is highly traditionally sacrosanct. Not sure it needs to be here, but he kept it that way. #13 v #4 (Nia v Lowell) for the same reason. And, finally, he put NoDame at GR rather than RPI for attendance also.

So, to me, it seems really like the First 3 bands are all set pretty hard in stone. The only thing you could do differently would be to leave the Mankato/WMU matchup intact and NoDak/Yale, and put Mankato/WMU at GR. but that would be splitting hairs, and I suspect it would go exactly like he has it.

In the #4 band, there are more options: All pertain to attendance, with the exception that NoDame can't be in Toledo. For example, one could reason like this: AK needs to stay at Prov, and there is no real attendance help available there anyway. NoDame can't be in Toledo, but instead of RPI, let's put Niagara there. Then,

Prov: QU, Mankato, Yale, AK
GR: Minny, NoDak, WMU, RPI (15 seed stays normal bracket form because with Minny and WMU, we don't need NoDame to help attendance in GR)
Toledo: Miami, BC, Denver, Niagara
Manchester: Lowell, UNH, SCSU, NoDame

This 'works' just as well, but with a bit more travel. Which is right? Good question. I am not sure we know what the committee would do with this.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Numbers said:
Which is right? Good question. I am not sure we know what the committee would do with this.
Click to expand...

Correct. And there really is no "right" answer anyway. We're all guessing based on what the committee has done in the past. They may decide to do something unexpected (like when they sent New Hampshire to Colorado) and the odds are they will be dealing with a pairwise that looks different than this one anyway.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

I see Moy's bracket is up. It's the same as Priceless', except that he puts the Mankato/Yale game in Toledo and the BC/Denver game in Providence. It's hard to get his reasoning totally, but I believe it is for the sake of BC in Providence and attendance.

My thought would be Yale is also an attendance help there, and it is more real to keep 1/8 and 3/6 together.

I don't know the East well. Am I right about Yale and Providence?
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

BC is about 50 minutes from Providence, Yale is about 1:45. BC enrollment a little over 14K, Yale a little under 12K. BC average draw 6800 vs 7800 capacity, Yale 3300 vs 3500 capacity. As far as alumni, this is just a guess but I'd say a higher % of BC grads stay local than Yale grads. BC has had a great run of success the last few years. BC gets the nod IMO, but Yale could defintely put some butts in seats.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

It took a while, but I finally found a way for Minnesota to flip the comparison with Quinnipiac and become the overall #1.

First, it must tie one game this weekend with Bemidji while North Dakota sweeps Mankato so the Gophers get the 3 seed in the WCHA.
Then they must sweep their first round series, while SCSU and NoDak both win their series.
At the Final Five, the Gophers must go 3-0 vs TUC and win the WCHA Championship.

Then it must look to the ECAC and hope for the following confluence of events:
Quinnipiac loses a game in the QF series, but wins the third.
Quinnipiac then loses to two TUC opponents in the ECAC SF and 3rd place game.
Cornell drops out as a TUC.
Colgate becomes a TUC.

That would give the Gophers just enough of an edge in both RPI and TUC to flip the comparison and capture the #1 overall seed. Anyone want to place odds on all of the above happening?
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Is it all but a lock that Western Michigan will end up in Grand Rapids? All of the bracketology at this point seems to make that assumption for attendance. However, if you end up with a situation like this week, where you've got two good traveling WCHA teams in Minnesota and North Dakota plus Notre Dame already at GR, you'll already have a pretty good draw there. Wouldn't it actually make more sense for Western to take the slightly longer drive to Toledo, where they are really going to struggle filling seats with only Miami being a draw there?

The same sort of situation seems pretty much locked in place, unless Notre Dame can move up to a 3 seed, or Miami falls out of the top 4.

Of course, if the NCAA actually cared about this sort of thing, they would stop placing the western regionals right next to each other. This problem wouldn't happen if instead of Grand Rapids/Toledo this year, and St. Paul/Green Bay last year, you'd have them split up like St. Paul/Toledo last year and Green Bay/Grand Rapids this year.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

So I was just recoding PWR from scratch for a new project, and found myself pondering the 10 games vs TUCs rule.

Of course, the TUC criterion is only used if both teams have played 10 games vs TUCs, and each comparison doesn't include games against the other TUC in the comparison.

As of right now, it matters whether you require 10 games vs TUCs excluding the other TUC in the comaprison, or 10 games vs TUCs total. The latter seemed more correct to me so I coded it that way, but found that all of the other major sources (including my own other implementations) do it the other way. This currently determines whether TUC gets included in the Robert Morris v. Air Force comparison, which flips the comparison based on your decision.

This never comes up where it matters, because the top teams invariably reach 10 games vs. TUCs by the end, so I guess I'll just do it the way we've all traditionally done it.
 
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