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Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

  • Thread starter Thread starter Priceless
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Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Numbers said:
Concerning the TUC Cliff, this would be complicated math, but I think we all understand the problem is that 2-0 v Holy Cross does not have the same meaning as 2-0 v Quinn, Minn, or Miami.
Click to expand...

However 2-0 vs. Holy Cross may well be very much like 2-0 vs. Ohio State or Colgate and 2-0 against BC or North Dakota may be like 2-0 against The Q, Minny or Miami. Don't forget that COp plays into the equation as well so that mitigates the TUC some too.
The fact that 2 Atlantic Hockey teams have beaten Quinnipiac and one has beaten Miami have leveled the results somewhat. Isn't that what should happen? We have to wait of course until all is done too for then we may have more teams with 10 games TUC to compare as well.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

komey1 said:
I think they definately needs to be some sort of criteria based on how well you do against better teams. When you look at the current TUC list, it's about half the teams. I think that's too many. Drop the number to top 20 or so in RPI and I think you might get a better feel for how teams do against quality competition.
Click to expand...

A big more numerics involved but I've advocated sort of a graduated TUC... (RPIOPP-.5)/(RPIMAX-.5) being the value for the game.
 
UnionHockeyManiac said:
First time posting in this thread. Union doesn't have any shot at an at-large bid, right?
Click to expand...

Not sure. Now that the DIY page is back and ECAC playoff picture will be finalized tonight I can more accurately predict things. I'll be doing team by team previews this week ahead of ECAC and CCHA playoffs. I can also better predict the likelihood of 2 AHA teams making the field.

Also making a return is Things I Think (college hockey version). A preview is that I Think Quinnipiac has locked up the 1-seed in Providence and Minnesota is very close to locking up the 1-seed in Grand Rapids. Miami is also very close to wrapping up #1 in Toledo. Odds are very high that Manchester will contain two of BC, UNH or Lowell.

Much more when I get home Sunday night and have a chance to start running a few scenarios.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Without doing any simulations, Maniac, I think it's certainly possible for Union to get an at-large bid without winning the ECAC tournament. Just to take the most obvious example, if they come out of the first round of the playoffs as the lowest-ranked team and play QPac and beat them twice, the RPI boost would be huge. Then they might not have to win in AC, although thry probably couldn't lose twice.

Sorry.... just checked. Can't happen. But they could play QPac in the first round in AC. They just can't play them twice.
 
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Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Two losses by Niagara have them tied for 12th. An early exit in the Atlantic Hockey tourney and they could miss the tournament.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Patman said:
A big more numerics involved but I've advocated sort of a graduated TUC... (RPIOPP-.5)/(RPIMAX-.5) being the value for the game.
Click to expand...

Patman,
I see what you mean by this. So, as an example, let's keep things simple: QU = RPIMAX, right? = .57. Wisc has .52 about. So, the value for the game = 2/7 or .28, right? Now, the question is: What do I do with that? Do I sum up all the values for the games and the values for the wins (or ties) and then do a %age of points earned? I can see that, if that is what you mean. So, in our example here, if my team loses to Wisconsin, my record for that game does not = 0-1, but rather 0-0.28. Right?
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

BC/HE said:
However 2-0 vs. Holy Cross may well be very much like 2-0 vs. Ohio State or Colgate and 2-0 against BC or North Dakota may be like 2-0 against The Q, Minny or Miami. Don't forget that COp plays into the equation as well so that mitigates the TUC some too.
The fact that 2 Atlantic Hockey teams have beaten Quinnipiac and one has beaten Miami have leveled the results somewhat. Isn't that what should happen? We have to wait of course until all is done too for then we may have more teams with 10 games TUC to compare as well.
Click to expand...

I see your point here BC/HE, but I am simply talking about the TUC component. It treats all games against TUCs as if they are equal, and they are not. Hence, Patman's discussion below of a scale for that.
 
Numbers said:
Patman,
I see what you mean by this. So, as an example, let's keep things simple: QU = RPIMAX, right? = .57. Wisc has .52 about. So, the value for the game = 2/7 or .28, right? Now, the question is: What do I do with that? Do I sum up all the values for the games and the values for the wins (or ties) and then do a %age of points earned? I can see that, if that is what you mean. So, in our example here, if my team loses to Wisconsin, my record for that game does not = 0-1, but rather 0-0.28. Right?
Click to expand...

I'm just using it as a weighting factor... Bottom line... No metric will be perfect but this will help soften the "TUC cliff".

\LaTeX

\sum_i{w_i x_i}/\sum{w_i}... Weighted mean
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Priceless said:
Not sure. Now that the DIY page is back and ECAC playoff picture will be finalized tonight I can more accurately predict things. I'll be doing team by team previews this week ahead of ECAC and CCHA playoffs. I can also better predict the likelihood of 2 AHA teams making the field.

Also making a return is Things I Think (college hockey version). A preview is that I Think Quinnipiac has locked up the 1-seed in Providence and Minnesota is very close to locking up the 1-seed in Grand Rapids. Miami is also very close to wrapping up #1 in Toledo. Odds are very high that Manchester will contain two of BC, UNH or Lowell.

Much more when I get home Sunday night and have a chance to start running a few scenarios.
Click to expand...

It will be interesting to see what you come up with, Priceless. I think the last weekend of play in the WCHA and the HE still make their part of this difficult to predict. For example, Minnesota could theoretically lose 4 games to Bemidji. That would surely impact their PWR. Also, the last weekend in HE could have a big effect on the UNH, BC, Lowell triumvirate, although that is tempered a lot by the fact that the committee would prefer to shuffle seeds to get WMU to GR, so even if BC or Lowell doesn't come out as #5 or 6 overall, and slot directly into Manchester, they might still end up there....
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Patman said:
I'm just using it as a weighting factor... Bottom line... No metric will be perfect but this will help soften the "TUC cliff".

\LaTeX

\sum_i{w_i x_i}/\sum{w_i}... Weighted mean
Click to expand...

Where x_i is the result = 1, 0.5, or 0, correct?
 
The stuff I had planned will be delayed indefinitely thanks to my unexpected stop at the EMMC emergency room. Fortunately I skipped the post game activities last night and did not Typhoid Mary the team. But I'll be glad to rent out my services if anyone here in the East wants me to infect their opposition. :-)
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Priceless said:
The stuff I had planned will be delayed indefinitely thanks to my unexpected stop at the EMMC emergency room. Fortunately I skipped the post game activities last night and did not Typhoid Mary the team. But I'll be glad to rent out my services if anyone here in the East wants me to infect their opposition. :-)
Click to expand...


Hmmmmm.....
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Is the PairWise Projector site up and running where you can input results for rest of year and get resultant pairwise standings?
Maybe this doesn't start until all conference tourneys are set.
 
yalehockeyfan said:
Is the PairWise Projector site up and running where you can input results for rest of year and get resultant pairwise standings?
Maybe this doesn't start until all conference tourneys are set.
Click to expand...

I am on a mobile device, so not able to totally answer. Pair wise predictor only comes on championship weekend. You can look at the site posted a couple of times on the prior pages of this thread, at elynah.com it is a do it yourself thing as well, but you have to figure out how to input results.
 
yalehockeyfan said:
Is the PairWise Projector site up and running where you can input results for rest of year and get resultant pairwise standings?
Maybe this doesn't start until all conference tourneys are set.
Click to expand...

In short, the way out works is that each team had a 2-letter code. You input games.
Date first, then road team and score, then gone team and score, and finally conference affiliation. All tournament games, even conference tournament games, are NC. WCHA games are WC, Hockey East games are HE.

Does that help?
 
Priceless said:
The stuff I had planned will be delayed indefinitely thanks to my unexpected stop at the EMMC emergency room. Fortunately I skipped the post game activities last night and did not Typhoid Mary the team. But I'll be glad to rent out my services if anyone here in the East wants me to infect their opposition. :-)
Click to expand...


How far are you from Orono?
 
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