Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

[Patman]

Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

Awwww...poor little knucks' getting nervous that the economy is picking up? You know, your efforts to talk down the economy won't work. Think about it, if you guys really had any influence, wouldn't we be evaluating President Palin's time in office right now?

The fundamentals are still a wreck. I'll trust in websites like zerohedge before I trust in Rover.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

It will be bad because of Obama up until it becomes good because of the business cycle.

 

[pirate]

Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

Awwww...poor little knucks' getting nervous that the economy is picking up? You know, your efforts to talk down the economy won't work. Think about it, if you guys really had any influence, wouldn't we be evaluating President Palin's time in office right now?


PS - The article was fair and balanced as it did point out the very things that Lynah went into a tirade about. Methinks he didn't read after the 1st paragraph.

The first sentence is "If the economy produces jobs over the next eight months at the same pace as it did over the past four months"

It isn't even worth discussing from that point forward...what did they write next..."Based on yesterday's rainfall, the entire country will be under water by August"?

Asterisks and footnotes, no ****. It also should have a disclaimer putting this analysis one step above Dionne Warwick.

Anybody walking in with 4 mos. of data that they are comparing to 4 years of data, in a subject that inherently has seasonality, cycles and influences that are not controlled for in the analysis...whether they are talking jobs, skirt lengths, cookies or batting averages...is FOS.

 

[LynahFan]

Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

It will be bad because of Obama up until it becomes good because of the business cycle.

Only for the pundits. I'm not blaming Obama for anything to do with the economy - there is literally nothing he CAN do to affect things at this point. The two things we desperately need (spending cuts and tax increases) cannot happen because it's an election year on both sides of the aisle. So Obama's along for the ride on the Economic Roller Coaster same as the rest of us. Strap in and hang on...

 

[Slap Shot]

I wonder what happens when all that temporary labor goes back to "unemployed" in 2 months?

The same thing that happened after every previous census? Last time I checked the census wasn't a Democratic or Obama administrative construct.

 

[eaglehockeyrules]

Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

Is the unemployment rate still 9.9%?

Obama needs to take a rest from social engineering, and start actually doing something about the 10% unemployment rate... at this rate we are becoming like a EU nation.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

Obama needs to take a rest from social engineering, and start actually doing something about the 10% unemployment rate

So that he can be accused of economic engineering.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

The same thing that happened after every previous census? Last time I checked the census wasn't a Democratic or Obama administrative construct.

Who said it was? We're just snickering at the administration choosing to point to it as job growth.

 

[Patman]

Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

Who said it was? We're just snickering at the administration choosing to point to it as job growth.

To them any job that happens to occur is a "stimulus" job anyhow. The Census jobs are gone in 2 months. Many of those people will revert to "unemployed". You can't use those jobs as proof of recovery.

 

[Bill]

Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

Is the unemployment rate still 9.9%?

Obama needs to take a rest from social engineering, and start actually doing something about the 10% unemployment rate... at this rate we are becoming like a EU nation.

Yes, the official BLS rate (U3) for April is 9.9%. The U6 rate is at 17.1%. There is a web site (Shadow Stats) that purports to identify true government statistics of many types, and the rate according to them is somewhere around 22%.

 

[sagard]

Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

Yes, the official BLS rate (U3) for April is 9.9%. The U6 rate is at 17.1%. There is a web site (Shadow Stats) that purports to identify true government statistics of many types, and the rate according to them is somewhere around 22%.

20% seems realistic, especially if that number includes those underemployed. I'm losing confidence that Obama is going to succeed at anything long or short term. I'd like to see us out of our wars and start building nuclear power plants. The health care package may end up being great, or it could blow up the budget if other measures aren't taken to get this country in better shape.

 

[Rover]

Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

The first sentence is "If the economy produces jobs over the next eight months at the same pace as it did over the past four months"

It isn't even worth discussing from that point forward...what did they write next..."Based on yesterday's rainfall, the entire country will be under water by August"?

Asterisks and footnotes, no ****. It also should have a disclaimer putting this analysis one step above Dionne Warwick.

Anybody walking in with 4 mos. of data that they are comparing to 4 years of data, in a subject that inherently has seasonality, cycles and influences that are not controlled for in the analysis...whether they are talking jobs, skirt lengths, cookies or batting averages...is FOS.

Ummm.....this one is odd. The economy, more than rainfall, tends to go in trends. So, usually you'll have periods of job growth and then periods of decline. It doesn't tend to be extremely random, in that one month you have 300K jobs, the next month lose 600K, then gain back 200K but then lose 500K, etc. So, what most normal people see is an upward trend. Therefore, extrapolating out current job growth at the beginning of a recovery (recall GDP growth as a backup indicator of where things are going) isn't a great leap here.

BTW - Dionne Warwick??? How old are you anyway?

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

In any case, I'm still firmly in the "Presidents deserve almost no credit or blame for the economy" camp. The jobs increase from 2003-2008 were not because of Bush's policies, just as the jobs that will be created from 2010-2012 will not be due to Obama's, but will be due to the financial industry getting itself back into shape so that it can begin lending again and businesses can access the capital they need to expand.

Then I'd say we disagree. There was far too much unnecessary actual and perceived conflict during the decade. The results of 9/11 were deflected to scenes of constant bombing in Iraq, disrespect of 'old Europe', rougue country of the day to be alarmed about, constant raising the terror threat level, push to use the US constitution to limit Americans rights (ban gay marriage). Sometimes the right seems to revel in this stuff, but not mainstream America and it does put a strain on the psyche of business, which wants a peaceful operating environment. Its no big surprise that real job creation...not caused by the bubble...was very weak. Compare this to the 90s, where the job creation was real.

Now if Obama institutes a vocal, aggressive war on the rich...I have little doubt we'll see similar economic results to those we had in the 2000s.

 

[Rover]

Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

Hard core righties (and I don't necessarily put Lynah in this category) need to stress the "Presidents don't affect the economy" because of the atrocious record of their boy Bush II, especially compared to the stellar record of Clinton. Now, jump back in time 20 years, and see how many righties thought like this coming off of the Reagan era, especially when the most recent Dem Presidency at that time was Carter. What you can easily conclude is selective amnesia out of our righty friends.

Fact is, Presidents do have some control over job creation. Simply put, if budgets are balanced, tax policy makes sense, free trade is encouraged, research and education supported, etc - then the business climate is positive and investor confidence soars - hence net capital inflows and a strong currency. Now, ask yourself, which era does this sum up, the 1990's or the 2000's?

In other news, how 'bout that 'fiscally conservative' Texas governor???

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100517/ap_on_re_us/us_texas_governor_temporary_mansion

 

[amherstblackbear]

Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100517/ap_on_re_us/us_texas_governor_temporary_mansion

He's the secessionist, right? More power to him.

 

[LynahFan]

Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

Fact is, Presidents do have some control over job creation. Simply put, if budgets are balanced, tax policy makes sense, free trade is encouraged, research and education supported, etc - then the business climate is positive and investor confidence soars - hence net capital inflows and a strong currency. Now, ask yourself, which era does this sum up, the 1990's or the 2000's?

Ok - so then, question for you: Will those items be characteristics of the 2010s? How about the next 5 years? I don't think so. And yet, I fully expect the economy to improve dramatically in that time - specifically, I expect unemployment to go down.

 

[ColbyWMHB]

Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

Hard core righties (and I don't necessarily put Lynah in this category) need to stress the "Presidents don't affect the economy" because of the atrocious record of their boy Bush II, especially compared to the stellar record of Clinton.

"Hardcore" members of either side are a major problem, as they spend more time revising history (and in truth reality) simply to justify why their party rules and the other party sucks.

Too many people take politics the same way they take their sports teams, and have sworn blind allegience to it regardless of their policies (or the effects thereof).

 

[Kepler]

Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

Insofar as policy can affect a national economy in a global world, it's policies that directly benefit the middle class -- tell those above to pay their fair share, while not imposing too onerous a burden to shelter those below.

The problem is the Republicans will never do the former and the Democrats will never do the latter.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

"Hardcore" members of either side are a major problem, as they spend more time revising history (and in truth reality) simply to justify why their party rules and the other party sucks.

Too many people take politics the same way they take their sports teams, and have sworn blind allegience to it regardless of their policies (or the effects thereof).

Bingo.

 

[Rover]

Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

Ok - so then, question for you: Will those items be characteristics of the 2010s? How about the next 5 years? I don't think so. And yet, I fully expect the economy to improve dramatically in that time - specifically, I expect unemployment to go down.

Lynah, I know you're capable of processing complex thoughts (unlike some others around here) so when I tell you two distinct things can happen at the same time, you'll believe in that concept, right?

So, while economies are cyclical, they aren't totally a matter of random chance. A President's policies can enhance the good times (Clinton), or mute them (Bush II). To dispute that would be to say that govt has no effect on the economy (which if that's true why all the hissy fits over Obama on the right?) or should stay out of the way (if that's true, does that mean we should keep deregulating and learn no lessons from the latest crisis?).