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Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

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Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

Priceless said:
I can understand the 18K for "consumables" and can definitely relate to the $1000 ice machine, but who subscribes to "Food & Wine Magazine" when most of their content is probably available for free online?
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You can understand 18k for consumables? In what way? Is that your monthly budget?

Aren't you the editor of "Food and Whine Magazine?"
 
Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

Kepler said:
You might have gone with "Fool and Whine." These things are worth doing right.
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Whoops! Looks like I just took down another one of Red Cloud's heroes. :D Guess I can expect a dozen neg reps in the next day or two. :eek:
 
Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

Kepler said:
You might have gone with "Fool and Whine." These things are worth doing right.
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That would require a level of sophistication that is beyond his limited reach.

Old Pio said:
Well, Woody Allen's still on board--and advocating an Obama "First Reich."

http://entertainment.blogs.foxnews.com/2010/05/17/woody-allen-president-obama-dictator/

cuckoo for cocoapuffs.
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Woody needs to focus on making better movies, but I think this is the part where someone uses the Bush quote about how he wishes he was a dictator.
 
Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

Rover said:
Lynah, I know you're capable of processing complex thoughts (unlike some others around here) so when I tell you two distinct things can happen at the same time, you'll believe in that concept, right?

So, while economies are cyclical, they aren't totally a matter of random chance. A President's policies can enhance the good times (Clinton), or mute them (Bush II). To dispute that would be to say that govt has no effect on the economy (which if that's true why all the hissy fits over Obama on the right?) or should stay out of the way (if that's true, does that mean we should keep deregulating and learn no lessons from the latest crisis?).
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I agree that it is very complex, which is why I never understand your oversimplification that Clinton:good and Bush:bad. To be honest, that's the kind of thinking I expect out of knuckledraggers.

And I didn't say the government has no effect on the economy. I said that Presidents specifically deserve very little credit or blame for the economy. I think Congress has far more control over the important levers that government can pull to affect the economy. Sure, nothing happens unless the President signs it, but they don't have to send him what he asks for, either.
 
Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

LynahFan said:
I agree that it is very complex, which is why I never understand your oversimplification that Clinton:good and Bush:bad. To be honest, that's the kind of thinking I expect out of knuckledraggers.
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Well, you've come to the right place then if you're getting it out of Rover. :D

Complexities aren't in his forte.
 
Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

Rover said:
Fact is, Presidents do have some control over job creation. Simply put, if budgets are balanced, tax policy makes sense, free trade is encouraged, research and education supported, etc - then the business climate is positive and investor confidence soars - hence net capital inflows and a strong currency. Now, ask yourself, which era does this sum up, the 1990's or the 2000's?
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If this holds true as you say, take and apply it to Obama:

Budget: Far from balanced.
Tax Policy: Not making sense.
Free Trade: Tariffs being slapped on imports.
Research & Education: Pay for Performance instituted.

Business Climate: Tepid at best, calm before the storm at worst.
Investor Confidence: Increased betting against the dollar and continual increase in US bond rates.
Capital Inflows: Tax receipts at an all-time low vs. government spending
Currency: Gaining against the Euro only because they're more screwed than us; several major countries pushing against the dollar benchmark.

Doesn't look good according to your own observations. :rolleyes:
 
Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

Plante26 said:
If this holds true as you say, take and apply it to Obama:

Budget: Far from balanced.
Tax Policy: Not making sense.
Free Trade: Tariffs being slapped on imports.
Research & Education: Pay for Performance instituted.

Business Climate: Tepid at best, calm before the storm at worst.
Investor Confidence: Increased betting against the dollar and continual increase in US bond rates.
Capital Inflows: Tax receipts at an all-time low vs. government spending
Currency: Gaining against the Euro only because they're more screwed than us; several major countries pushing against the dollar benchmark.

Doesn't look good according to your own observations. :rolleyes:
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Don't forget, this is a complex and nuanced model that Rover developed from his fit to two data points: Clinton and Bush II. ;)

To your point, though - the key is that none of these things will be radically different under Obama than they were under Bush II. Sure, there will be some tweaks to gore some different oxen, but those differences (expiration of a tax credit or two, a few hundred million here and there in research grants) will not be nearly significant enough different to explain what will be the differing results between "Bush's" bear economy and the inevitably upcoming bull.

Here's my theory: The economy tends to improve under Democratic presidents because the only reason Republicans ever lose power in the first place (Ford, Bush I, Bush III) is that the economy went bad. Democrats, on the other hand, enter power when the economy is bad and ride the wave back to the top.
 
Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

Rover said:
Ummm.....this one is odd. The economy, more than rainfall, tends to go in trends. So, usually you'll have periods of job growth and then periods of decline. It doesn't tend to be extremely random, in that one month you have 300K jobs, the next month lose 600K, then gain back 200K but then lose 500K, etc. So, what most normal people see is an upward trend. Therefore, extrapolating out current job growth at the beginning of a recovery (recall GDP growth as a backup indicator of where things are going) isn't a great leap here.

BTW - Dionne Warwick??? How old are you anyway? :D
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I never said it was random...forecasting anything accurately requires analysis and weighting of several variables...it is a great leap to take 4 months of data, extrapolate it on a straight line basis for the remainder of the year (when you know job growth is seasonal) and then compare it to a period of several years that just so happen to end at the tail of the biggest job loss in decades. That is a huge leap.

The only thing odd is that anyone with a brain would interpret that type of 'analysis' as anything but selective inclusion.

Try to put your politics aside (however impossible that may be for you) and consider if you would make any decisions, personal or professional, based only on that type of forecasting.

As for rain, it isn't random, it is seasonal, and I'm going out on a limb to say that it rains more in the spring than late summer...so, if someone came in today and said "assuming the total rainfall of the last 4 months continues for the next 8 months, the total forecasted rainfall for that 12 month period would exceed the actual rainfall of the previous 12 month period"...I would laugh. You apparently would go buy a canoe if the democratic party told you to.

That's fine.

I'm not exactly sure when Dionne Warwick was doing her Psychic Network gig but I think it was the '90's...so yeah, I'm old enough to remember the 1990's.
 
Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

According to Wikipedia, Dionne Warwick was spokesperson for the Psychic Friends Network from 1991 to 1998. She made $3M per year doing it, so I guess the joke's on us.
 
Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

Looks like we got ourselves a Caveman convention here. Looks like a casting call for those Geico commercials. :D

Pirate, your attraction to 1990's Dionne Warwick aside :eek:, your analogy is odd. Weather is a completely random event. If it wasn't we'd know when hurricanes were going to hit a year in advance and plan accordingly. Similarly, how many people have had a summer vacation weekend ruined by rain?

Now to equate weather with job growth, it would have be sunny for years on end to liken weather to coming out of a recession and moving through recovery to prosperity. That obviously doesn't happen, so your analysis is fatally flawed.


Lynah - Who is Bush III? Do you know something we don't? :eek: :eek: :eek: Anyway, your theory is also dumb as Bush II inherited a stellar budget and blew a hole in it. Again a fact you righties try desperately to cover up.

Plante - Obama has been in office a little over a year. Lets give it some time, shall we, as it took your boy Bush 8 years to destroy the economy. :D


Red Cloud - which one of us is gainfully employed again? Also, why are my tax dollars being used for you to lie around the house? :p
 
Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

Rover said:
Lynah - Who is Bush III? Do you know something we don't? :eek: :eek: :eek: Anyway, your theory is also dumb as Bush II inherited a stellar budget and blew a hole in it. Again a fact you righties try desperately to cover up.
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Wow - can't believe I have to explain the John McSame joke to you of all people.

Bush II inheriting a strong economy (well, okay - you got me, should have said "artificially inflated by the dot-com bubble") fits perfectly with my theory. The natural tendency of the country is to elect a Republican President, and only when times are bad are we desperate enough to try something else and/or send a message. In 2000, times were not bad, so we went back to our natural inclination and picked the Republican.
 
Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

Rover said:
Looks like we got ourselves a Caveman convention here. Looks like a casting call for those Geico commercials. :D

Pirate, your attraction to 1990's Dionne Warwick aside :eek:, your analogy is odd. Weather is a completely random event. If it wasn't we'd know when hurricanes were going to hit a year in advance and plan accordingly. Similarly, how many people have had a summer vacation weekend ruined by rain?

Now to equate weather with job growth, it would have be sunny for years on end to liken weather to coming out of a recession and moving through recovery to prosperity. That obviously doesn't happen, so your analysis is fatally flawed.


Lynah - Who is Bush III? Do you know something we don't? :eek: :eek: :eek: Anyway, your theory is also dumb as Bush II inherited a stellar budget and blew a hole in it. Again a fact you righties try desperately to cover up.

Plante - Obama has been in office a little over a year. Lets give it some time, shall we, as it took your boy Bush 8 years to destroy the economy. :D


Red Cloud - which one of us is gainfully employed again? Also, why are my tax dollars being used for you to lie around the house? :p
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Nice try.

You are following your pattern to the letter.

You are not random, completely predictable.
 
Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

Priceless said:
Woody needs to focus on making better movies, but I think this is the part where someone uses the Bush quote about how he wishes he was a dictator.
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Vicky Christina Barcelona (his second to last film) is one of his best ever.

Just saying.
 
Re: Obama XII: The shine is off the glass slipper

LynahFan said:
should have said "artificially inflated by the dot-com bubble")...
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MinnFan? Is that you? :D

The problem with your theory is its like the "when the NFC wins the Super Bowl we elect a Republican" theory. Simply put, the data sample is too small if you limit it to 1976-2008. Why? Well, you're only including changes of power, thereby eliminating re-elections/holds. That gets rid of 4 events (84, 88, 96, 04), leaving 5. Might I suggest the GOP for a good deal of that time (roughly 1968-1988) was just better at winning elections regardless of the state of the economy? Likewise, given that Dems have won more votes than the GOP in 4 out of the last 5 Presidential elections, might we also consider that Dems are now just better at winning than the GOP (including Clinton win in good times '96 and Obama win in bad times '08)?

Pirate, discussing this with you is like talking to a GWB supporter back in their heyday. Remember when being obtuse was all the rage, and if you told someone that rain is wet, they'd tell you no it isn't now prove it? That's sorta like you with the weather=economy schtick.
 
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