Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!
Based on Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH) found
here, the updated (after 5/2, super-old KRACH) most likely outcomes are:
West: LAK in 5 (20.0%), PHX in 6 (23.5%)
East: NYR in 5 (36.2%), PHI in 6 (24.1%)
Overall winning probabilities:
West
STL 31.6% - LAK 68.4%
PHX 64.4% - NSH 35.6%
East
NYR 82.3% - WAS 17.7%
PHI 63.4% - NJD 36.6%
As always, KRACH is not a perfect predictive system. In fact, it's not predictive at all; it's retrodictive. Home-ice advantage, momentum, and the like can not be accounted for reliably, so they are ignored.
Remarks: The KRACH used for these predictions is only accurate up to 4/30 (the last three games aren't accounted for). As such, all three series that had games played since then should be closer than they are currently.
Next Round possibilities:
Code:
-------------------------
|WEST | HOME |
|CONF.|-----------------|
|FINAL| STL | PHX | NSH |
|-----------------------|
|A|PHX|20.4%|XXXXX|XXXXX|
|W|---|-----------------|
|A|NSH|11.3%|XXXXX|XXXXX|
|Y|---|-----------------|
| |LAK|XXXXX|44.0%|24.4%|
-------------------------
-------------------------
|EAST | HOME |
|CONF.|-----------------|
|FINAL| NYR | PHI | NJD |
|-----------------------|
|A|PHI|52.2%|XXXXX|XXXXX|
|W|---|-----------------|
|A|NJD|30.1%|XXXXX|XXXXX|
|Y|---|-----------------|
| |WAS|XXXXX|11.3%|6.48%|
-------------------------