NFL 2019-20: The Patriots Are A Terrible 11-3 Team!

[Jimjamesak]

Simple answer, you told me off from the soccer thread when I was bothered by the fact that MLS teams spent too much time and effort to be European as opposed to American (who is the freaking royalty in Salt Lake City???). So go watch your soccer, and let the XFL and USFL fail. It's pretty clear they are not trying to get your eyes. anyway.

BTW, I'm curious how you think tripling the player salaries is such a bad estimate.

First, even if my estimate is 100% low, it would still take a decade of expenses to get to one of your throw away billions.

Second, it's reported that Fox signed a $150M/3 year deal with the USFL. Given the TV income, I'd bet that my estimate is pretty darned close to expenses.

So it would take 20 years of 100M of expenses and $50M income to get to $1B of losses.

Given your responses my answer is pretty simple: You are severely underestimating the costs that go into starting up and running a sports league, let alone an expensive one like football.

Fox isn’t paying $50 million a year, Fox is an owner of the league.

The deal would receive an initial $200 million investment from Fox, with the goal of raising an additional $250 million from numerous wealthy investors in the future. This unprecedented amount of financing, coupled with a unique broadcast scenario with four nationally televised games per week, the city of Birmingham stands to reap vast economic benefits from the deal.

They’re raising nearly a half a billion dollars in funding just to get this off the ground, and that’s with them doing things on the cheap (playing in one city, low salaries, centralized management structure). What’s it going to cost to get them to year 5? Year 10?

And again, what’s the reception going to be when the novelty wears off? And how much is it going to cost to keep things fresh when the novelty does wear off?

 

[Kepler]

I do not think football will even survive into 2050, let along have competing leagues. Like bear baiting, it's just a turd to be flushed.

 

[Jimjamesak]

I do not think football will even survive into 2050, let along have competing leagues. Like bear baiting, it's just a turd to be flushed.

I think the NFL and college football will survive, anything with that much capital will, but it’ll look nothing like it is today.

As for other leagues, that’s what my whole spiel is about: what is the long term plan for any of these leagues? What’s the plan to get to Year 5, Year 10, Year 20?

 

[MichVandal]

Given your responses my answer is pretty simple: You are severely underestimating the costs that go into starting up and running a sports league, let alone an expensive one like football.

Fox isn’t paying $50 million a year, Fox is an owner of the league.



They’re raising nearly a half a billion dollars in funding just to get this off the ground, and that’s with them doing things on the cheap (playing in one city, low salaries, centralized management structure). What’s it going to cost to get them to year 5? Year 10?

And again, what’s the reception going to be when the novelty wears off? And how much is it going to cost to keep things fresh when the novelty does wear off?

If they get to year 5, they win. That should be pretty obvious. If there's a year 10, then there may be real discussions to tie to the NFL.

Again, even if I'm underestimating by 100%, it's still a long way from $1,000,000,000. And if the player salaries are as low as reported, I'm really not sure how you come close to $100M in just expenses- there's not enough salary between the players and other people + Travel to get near $100M right now.

Also, if it gets anywhere NEAR the expenses as one super star NFL player for each team, that would be a massive win. Anywhere near your expectations would have to be a massive win, as it will take some time to add up $100M of total expenses.

I can even add charter plane fights to and from each location with 5 hour fights at 50k/hour- or @250k/flight, $2M per weekend for all teams, $20M for the entire league season, that still leave $30M for all of the rest of the expenses. Which none of that will be needed for season one. Let alone a high estimate due to ~$30K/hr for a 737 (which is too big for a USFL team of 35) and the tiny issue that the teams are all WAY closer than a 5 hour flight apart from each other.

How about coming up with some alternative numbers instead of just saying I'm under estimating it? This is a $45k average salary league with 35 players. There's not much there to add up. My estimated salary was 30% higher than that, and then rounded up to $20M. For year 2, the $20M flight estimate is way to high, which leave $10M for the stadium.

Are you really worried that this will take eyes off of soccer or something? Not sure why you care if billionaires spend money like this. If it gives a chance to good college FB players when we see some real losers in the NFL, seems like an overall win.

 

[MichVandal]

I think the NFL and college football will survive, anything with that much capital will, but it’ll look nothing like it is today.

As for other leagues, that’s what my whole spiel is about: what is the long term plan for any of these leagues? What’s the plan to get to Year 5, Year 10, Year 20?

Clearly, to dominate the MLS.... That's the plan.

 

[Jimjamesak]

If they get to year 5, they win. That should be pretty obvious. If there's a year 10, then there may be real discussions to tie to the NFL.

Again, even if I'm underestimating by 100%, it's still a long way from $1,000,000,000. And if the player salaries are as low as reported, I'm really not sure how you come close to $100M in just expenses- there's not enough salary between the players and other people + Travel to get near $100M right now.

Also, if it gets anywhere NEAR the expenses as one super star NFL player for each team, that would be a massive win. Anywhere near your expectations would have to be a massive win, as it will take some time to add up $100M of total expenses.

I can even add charter plane fights to and from each location with 5 hour fights at 50k/hour- or @250k/flight, $2M per weekend for all teams, $20M for the entire league season, that still leave $30M for all of the rest of the expenses. Which none of that will be needed for season one. Let alone a high estimate due to ~$30K/hr for a 737 (which is too big for a USFL team of 35) and the tiny issue that the teams are all WAY closer than a 5 hour flight apart from each other.

How about coming up with some alternative numbers instead of just saying I'm under estimating it? This is a $45k average salary league with 35 players. There's not much there to add up. My estimated salary was 30% higher than that, and then rounded up to $20M. For year 2, the $20M flight estimate is way to high, which leave $10M for the stadium.

Are you really worried that this will take eyes off of soccer or something? Not sure why you care if billionaires spend money like this. If it gives a chance to good college FB players when we see some real losers in the NFL, seems like an overall win.

Because you’re assuming my “$1 billion” number was only the upfront cost. My one billion number is a long term number, like the total at year 10. That’s the thing where most people balk at. If people want to make money in this venture, that’s how much time and money it’s going to take.

Also, you assume costs are going to be static the entire. Player salaries aren’t going to stay at $4500 a week the entire time, the season isn’t going to stay at 10 games the entire time, and the league can’t stay at 8 teams the entire time.

And once they move out of their “bubble” set up and into host cities their costs are going to increase greatly with nearly no revenue. Even at five games you’re looking at $5-10 a year just in stadium costs alone, and that’s only likely on any cheap deal. You start adding in practice facilities and office space and it only gets worse.

For me, I just don’t see the point of it, for anyone. The likelihood of ownership making money is slim. The players have to spend months destroying their bodies for $4500 a week, and realistically they’re only taking home maybe $10-15k of that. The coaches I guess get a check and maybe a shot at something else. It’s all just wasteful to me, especially since it’s tried so many times before. Tax these fuckers so this stupid s- doesn’t keep popping up.

 

[Jimjamesak]

Clearly, to dominate the MLS.... That's the plan.

You’re the one bringing this up, not me. Spring football has zero bearing on MLS.

 

[MichVandal]

Because you’re assuming my “$1 billion” number was only the upfront cost. My one billion number is a long term number, like the total at year 10. That’s the thing where most people balk at. If people want to make money in this venture, that’s how much time and money it’s going to take.

Also, you assume costs are going to be static the entire. Player salaries aren’t going to stay at $4500 a week the entire time, the season isn’t going to stay at 10 games the entire time, and the league can’t stay at 8 teams the entire time.

If they get to year 10, they win. The AFL ran that long then it merged with the NFL. So by then, the cost/expense/profit thing will be worked out pretty darned well.

And for the purposes of survival of the league, the costs will be relatively static- we are talking 3 years max- the original USFL closed after 3 seasons when it was proposed to move to the fall.

The only way that salaries expand before closing is if everything is working out.

Given all of the failures of spring football, it will never get to the point of $1B in losses.

So, yes, expenses/salaries will be pretty static until they have some success. There won't be additional teams until there's success.

This isn't that complicated.

 

[MichVandal]

You’re the one bringing this up, not me. Spring football has zero bearing on MLS.

someone pee-ed into your cheerios. Just thinking it was about your sport.

Given the number of billionaires in the US alone, there it plenty of money out there to run up billions of expenses these days for the sake of saying you have a pro-football team. Which is what drove dumpy into the USFL.

 

[Jimjamesak]

If they get to year 10, they win. The AFL ran that long then it merged with the NFL. So by then, the cost/expense/profit thing will be worked out pretty darned well.

And for the purposes of survival of the league, the costs will be relatively static- we are talking 3 years max- the original USFL closed after 3 seasons when it was proposed to move to the fall.

The only way that salaries expand before closing is if everything is working out.

Given all of the failures of spring football, it will never get to the point of $1B in losses.

So, yes, expenses/salaries will be pretty static until they have some success. There won't be additional teams until there's success.

This isn't that complicated.

The NFL isn't going to merge with anyone. Adding teams just takes away their ability to extort cities for stadium funding. They might add teams in Europe one day but even that's a stretch. So if the whole point of starting a spring football league is to force a merger, well the idea is even dumber than I thought. And the NFL already had the most successful spring league ever in NFL Europe and even that folded after losing $30 million a year for ten years.

 

[MichVandal]

The NFL isn't going to merge with anyone. Adding teams just takes away their ability to extort cities for stadium funding. They might add teams in Europe one day but even that's a stretch. So if the whole point of starting a spring football league is to force a merger, well the idea is even dumber than I thought. And the NFL already had the most successful spring league ever in NFL Europe and even that folded after losing $30 million a year for ten years.

Uh, never said they were going to merge. You bring up a long term "problem" and I contend that if they get to $1B in expenses, the league will be winning. 5 years would be winning. 10 years would be exceptional. 10 years is how long the AFL lasted until it became the AFC, 3 years is how long the original USFL lasted- and it had astronomical salaries, none of the most recent spring leagues ever got close to that. So just getting to $1B in expenses would mean that the league would be on a path that is probably more sustainable than the original USFL, and maybe as staying (and interesting) as the AFL was.

Heck the freaking Arena Football League has been mostly on and (now) off since the 80s. And I'd bet that outdoor spring football will be more popular than that.

Your making a bar that if they can even chin up to, it would be pretty epic.

The USFL and XFL have to be focused on very short term survival. If they get past that, it will be a win.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Like, how? No one ever really made use of the new rules. It was just mediocre spring football.

Receivers only needed one foot in bounds
College football OT rules
There were others I can't remember. I thought the coinflip rules were fun back then but whatever.

There were also the experience changes
They pioneered the over-the-field cam
I liked that they had nicknames on the back

Shit was way more fun in that respect

 

[dxmnkd316]

One thing that was nice- none of the players were primadonnas. The pay wasn't high enough. Which also meant that some even knew this was their only chance. So it was kinda like college football vs. NFL. And it didn't take itself so serious to not have any fun. Unlike the NoFunLeague.

THis too, but can't fix that in the NFL

 

[LynahFan]

A $billion? Shiiiiit - Musk wastes more than that on tweets before breakfast.

A million seconds is 11.5 days. A billion seconds is 31.7 years. A trillion seconds is 317 *centuries*. US billionaires are hoarding $3T. A new football league is exactly like an expansion NCAA team - just takes the right sponsor.

 

[Kepler]

A $billion? Shiiiiit - Musk wastes more than that on tweets before breakfast.

A million seconds is 11.5 days. A billion seconds is 31.7 years. A trillion seconds is 317 *centuries*. US billionaires are hoarding $3T. A new football league is exactly like an expansion NCAA team - just takes the right sponsor.

Median American wealth is the height of the ridge of a Toblerone bar.

Jeff Bezos' wealth is the height of Mount Everest. Five times.

Eat the rich.

 

[Slap Shot]

The arguments that this time they surely won't fail come off a lot like wishful thinking.

 

[SonofSouthie]

The arguments that this time they surely won't fail come off a lot like wishful thinking.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pc4IFIXcDcs

 

[MichVandal]

The arguments that this time they surely won't fail come off a lot like wishful thinking.

For me, it's not so much will they fail- the odds are quite high that they will. But if they manage to lose $1B, that would either mean someone embezzled a lot of money or they were around for a lot longer than anyone projected they would be. And to complain that this is some kind of colossal waste of money- this is going to pay a few hundred people a decent salary in a country were burning $1B to put back into the economy would be a great thing.

Essentially, why are people so upset about this?

We really NEED billionaires to put money back into the economy, and in this method, at least people are going to be entertained.

 

[state of hockey]

Median American wealth is the height of the ridge of a Toblerone bar.

Jeff Bezos' wealth is the height of Mount Everest. Five times.

Eat the rich.

Yeah but one of those airport toblerones, right?

 

[Slap Shot]

For me, it's not so much will they fail- the odds are quite high that they will. But if they manage to lose $1B, that would either mean someone embezzled a lot of money or they were around for a lot longer than anyone projected they would be. And to complain that this is some kind of colossal waste of money- this is going to pay a few hundred people a decent salary in a country were burning $1B to put back into the economy would be a great thing.

Essentially, why are people so upset about this?

We really NEED billionaires to put money back into the economy, and in this method, at least people are going to be entertained.

I can think of a lot better ways to inject $1B into the economy than trying to start another professional football league. I'm also not upset about it - more like amused.