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How good of a 1B are we talking? In his first four starts Pelf has not given up a home run (he shouldn't give up too many since he generally keeps the ball down, but he won't go through the whole season without allowing any), he's benefited from an extremely low BABIP against (.249) which doesn't seem likely to continue if the Mets keep sending Luis Castillo out there at 2B, and has also had an extremely high LOB rate (93.6%) which has nowhere to go but down. Optimistically, you might expect something along the lines of his 2008 numbers, but he's not going to pitch to a 0.69 ERA all year. (Obviously.)
Pablo Sandoval? I don't think I would deal him for Pelfrey. It's getting to the point where you can't really say that his high batting average is a small sample size fluke anymore. Plus "Kung Fu Panda" is a great nickname.
Ummmm.....2008 (his best season) he came on in the second half of the season.
While that may be what the splits look like, I can't really see (basically) two full seasons in the rotation as evidence of Pelfrey's performance trending during the season, especially for a pitcher who doesn't strike a ton of batters out, gets a lot of ground balls, and depends on his infielders making plays behind him. To me, especially bearing in mind that his K:BB tends to improve as the season goes on, it seems like he suffers from Luis Castillo's old knees breaking down as the season goes by, and Jose Reyes being out of the lineup and replaced by a statue of a retired MLB player named Alex Cora (or, in 2008, wearing down as the season went by).
You mean teams have hot streaks and cold streaks throughout a season? That's crazy talk!