NCAA Rankings 2/19/13

[NUProf]

Looks like the only way it will work is if the NCAA lets them play Friday or Sunday. I don't see them letting that happen. The state won't upset the Saturday games as you have people coming in from all over and spending the night. As I said in an earlier post, the only way it could work is if 1 HS game was moved to Friday night and the NCAA letting the game start at 8:30. That would free up about 2+ hours for pratice for the big boys. The problem would be getting the state and the 2 teams that would play Friday night to agree. Right now it doesn't look good, but things could change.

Those adjustments would have to be included in the bid to the NCAA you can't do a last minute on the fly proposal. It has to be all spelled out

 

[llama]

Re: NCAA Rankings 2/19/13

I did the stats last year and I think it was around 85ish % of the ECAC Wests NC wins were against the bottom half of SUNYAC and ECAC NE teams.

Not sure if the stats you ran were for last year (2011-2012) or over a longer time period? Either way, I have a hard time believing that number.

Last year, for instance, the ECAC-W had 44 OOC wins. 34 of these wins were against the SUNYAC and NE. That is 77% of their OOC wins. Even if EVERY ONE of their (27) wins vs the SUNYAC came against a “bottom half” team, your math doesn’t add up.

Or am I missing something?

 

[PSUChamps2001]

Not sure if the stats you ran were for last year (2011-2012) or over a longer time period? Either way, I have a hard time believing that number.

Last year, for instance, the ECAC-W had 44 OOC wins. 34 of these wins were against the SUNYAC and NE. That is 77% of their OOC wins. Even if EVERY ONE of their (27) wins vs the SUNYAC came against a “bottom half” team, your math doesn’t add up.

Or am I missing something?

Longer period. I think I did post RIT. Basically what it came down to was of the NC wins the ECAC W had...the majority were against the bottom teams in other leagues....

 

[admiral0417]

Re: NCAA Rankings 2/19/13

I am home watching kids, so I had some time to run numbers on SUNYAC vs. ECAC West for a period of 10 years (2003-13).
ECAC West holds a 221-138-32 edge over that timeframe. There are a couple of interesting twists though. Oswego (35-15-5), Geneseo (27-24-3) and Plattsburgh (7-5-3) hold winning records while Cortland (18-33-5), Fredonia (15-25-6), Buffalo (15-29-1), Brockport (12-31-4), Potsdam (5-35-4) and Morrisville (4-24-1) have been destroyed.

This advantage looks worse when you extract Lebanon Valley's dismal 3-42-0 mark against SUNYAC. However, Oswego only played them one time and Platty not at all. Manhattanville has gotten fat (41-1-1) but DID NOT PLAY Oswego OR Plattsburgh!

In order of success, the ECAC West has been Manhattanville (41-1-1), Hobart (45-18-9), Utica (36-18-4), Neumann (44-24-7), Elmira 44-27-10), Nazereth (3-2-0), RIT (5-6-1) and LVC (3-42-0). 32 of Elmira's 81 games have been against Oswego or Platty. I guess the conclusion I draw is the top SUNYAC teams have done quite well and teams 4-9 have been crushed. Too bad LVC didn't stick around or things could be more even. I would also like to have seen more teams in ECAC West, thus giving more of a chance that some of them will be bad.

 

[Fishman'81]

Re: NCAA Rankings 2/19/13

Thanks for crunching the numbers. That was a good read.

It's been pretty clear for a while now that Oswego has been as good and usually better than the top teams in the W, while an similarly-elite Plattsburgh program hasn't really been in the mix enough to draw much of any comparisons with it. No Utica fan on here has popped-off about Platty, as far as I know, because we never see them. (Due to travel considerations, I'd guess.)

Leb Valley was pretty-much an auto-win in the W, and outside of it, too... That program was an embarrassment, even at this level. Over the course of 12 years of watching D-3 hockey, I've only seen a few teams as inept as they were, and they were all from small colleges East of New York. (And FWIW, I think that Nazereth is going to get better in a hurry.)

Still, if you want to cite the W's SOS vs. the SUNYAC's weaker teams, you must admit that OSU and Plattsburgh get to play those bad SUNY same teams every year, and a few times more than the W does...

That looks like a wash to me, at worst.

 

[Fishman'81]

Re: NCAA Rankings 2/19/13

Not sure if the stats you ran were for last year (2011-2012) or over a longer time period? Either way, I have a hard time believing that number.

Last year, for instance, the ECAC-W had 44 OOC wins. 34 of these wins were against the SUNYAC and NE. That is 77% of their OOC wins. Even if EVERY ONE of their (27) wins vs the SUNYAC came against a “bottom half” team, your math doesn’t add up.

Or am I missing something?

Probably not...

But PSU always misses something.

 

[Fishman'81]

Re: NCAA Rankings 2/19/13

SOS is a metric. I prefer to see who is playing at the end of the year.

If that's your opinion of "metrics", why weigh-in at any juncture aside from that time after which the title game is played? At that point, everybody is a savant.

 

[cetihcra]

Still, if you want to cite the W's SOS vs. the SUNYAC's weaker teams, you must admit that OSU and Plattsburgh get to play those bad SUNY same teams every year, and a few times more than the W does...

That looks like a wash to me, at worst.

This doesn't matter one bit. All that matters is out-of-conference games with regard to SOS because in any balanced league schedule your SOS metric will be .500. Even the almighty E-West! What makes or breaks a teams SOS is their out of conference shedule, the leagues' noncon schedule, and how your league brethren do in their noncon games. This year, and in years past, the E-West has pumped up their SOS by playing the bottom barrel SUNYAC (34 games this year), and E-NE (13). The results are: a lot of noncon wins among league members, and thus an inflated SOS.

r

 

[PSUChamps2001]

This doesn't matter one bit. All that matters is out-of-conference games with regard to SOS because in any balanced league schedule your SOS metric will be .500. Even the almighty E-West! What makes or breaks a teams SOS is their out of conference shedule, the leagues' noncon schedule, and how your league brethren do in their noncon games. This year, and in years past, the E-West has pumped up their SOS by playing the bottom barrel SUNYAC (34 games this year), and E-NE (13). The results are: a lot of noncon wins among league members, and thus an inflated SOS.

r

Thank you....

 

[LakerEagleLover]

Re: NCAA Rankings 2/19/13

This doesn't matter one bit. All that matters is out-of-conference games with regard to SOS because in any balanced league schedule your SOS metric will be .500. Even the almighty E-West! What makes or breaks a teams SOS is their out of conference shedule, the leagues' noncon schedule, and how your league brethren do in their noncon games. This year, and in years past, the E-West has pumped up their SOS by playing the bottom barrel SUNYAC (34 games this year), and E-NE (13). The results are: a lot of noncon wins among league members, and thus an inflated SOS.

r

+1

 

[llama]

Re: NCAA Rankings 2/19/13

This doesn't matter one bit. All that matters is out-of-conference games with regard to SOS because in any balanced league schedule your SOS metric will be .500. Even the almighty E-West! What makes or breaks a teams SOS is their out of conference shedule, the leagues' noncon schedule, and how your league brethren do in their noncon games. This year, and in years past, the E-West has pumped up their SOS by playing the bottom barrel SUNYAC (34 games this year), and E-NE (13). The results are: a lot of noncon wins among league members, and thus an inflated SOS.

r

My original point was that if OOC record is an indicator for the overall strength/depth of a league (which I would argue it is), then the ECAC-W is traditional pretty strong in this metric and this year was not a “flash in the pan”. If you guys think this is inflated by unique circumstances, maybe you are right…it is what it is. It would be easy to point out that there are a number of teams with really high win % every year because they are able to blow through their in-conference schedule with little resistance. Again…it just is what it is.


The other league that traditionally has similar OOC success and teams with strong SOS is the NCHA. Do you guys happen to know if that league has a similar trend as the ECAC-W (i.e. they benefit from being able to beat up on the bottom half teams and/or weaker leagues around them)??

 

[NUProf]

Thanks for crunching the numbers. That was a good read.

It's been pretty clear for a while now that Oswego has been as good and usually better than the top teams in the W, while an similarly-elite Plattsburgh program hasn't really been in the mix enough to draw much of any comparisons with it. No Utica fan on here has popped-off about Platty, as far as I know, because we never see them. (Due to travel considerations, I'd guess.)

Leb Valley was pretty-much an auto-win in the W, and outside of it, too... That program was an embarrassment, even at this level. Over the course of 12 years of watching D-3 hockey, I've only seen a few teams as inept as they were, and they were all from small colleges East of New York. (And FWIW, I think that Nazereth is going to get better in a hurry.)

Still, if you want to cite the W's SOS vs. the SUNYAC's weaker teams, you must admit that OSU and Plattsburgh get to play those bad SUNY same teams every year, and a few times more than the W does...

That looks like a wash to me, at worst.

However, playing teams in your conference is a wash on your OWP, except for dragging down your OWP because they lose non league games. You league's contribution to OWP for league games is always 0.500 as long as the league plays a balanced schedule. Aiding a bottom feeder to a league moves all the SOS numbers towards 0.500 for the whole league because it reduces the number of out of conf games that are played

 

[Fishman'81]

Re: NCAA Rankings 2/19/13

This doesn't matter one bit. All that matters is out-of-conference games with regard to SOS because in any balanced league schedule your SOS metric will be .500. Even the almighty E-West! What makes or breaks a teams SOS is their out of conference shedule, the leagues' noncon schedule, and how your league brethren do in their noncon games. This year, and in years past, the E-West has pumped up their SOS by playing the bottom barrel SUNYAC (34 games this year), and E-NE (13). The results are: a lot of noncon wins among league members, and thus an inflated SOS.

You fail to mention OOWP, which helps to bring SOS into some sort of balance... If a team dominates bad teams who lose to worse teams, it's SOS will be low, for example, which flies in the face of your argument.

The process passes the sniff-test pretty well at this time of year, at least in terms of the Eastern KRACH. I don't see anyone getting jobbed there, do you?

 

[peddler]

Re: NCAA Rankings 2/19/13

Well, dont tonights results make things interesting? As usual, the field is hardly assured before the conference finals are played. Then there is always the "smoke" factor.

 

[cetihcra]

You fail to mention OOWP, which helps to bring SOS into some sort of balance... If a team dominates bad teams who lose to worse teams, it's SOS will be low, for example, which flies in the face of your argument.

The process passes the sniff-test pretty well at this time of year, at least in terms of the Eastern KRACH. I don't see anyone getting jobbed there, do you?

I can include oowp in my synopsis, because I understand the process and can tell you that the ecac-w still has a grossly inflated SOS due to the league playing cupcakes. I will provide league noncon owp and oowp on Monday. In the meantime, Hobart and Utica will likely get pool c's because of said grossly overstated SOS, and despite not even making it to their conference finals. Do they deserve it? EF no, if you can't win your league, you shouldn't even be given a chance at winning the championship. Period.

r

 

[cetihcra]

Re: NCAA Rankings 2/19/13

And P.S., yes krach is on crack if they think manhattanville has the 12th hardest schedule in d3. I don't care if it passes your uneducated "sniff test", the sample size and margin for error make it about as useful a sandbox in the desert.

r

 

[Fishman'81]

Re: NCAA Rankings 2/19/13

I can include oowp in my synopsis, because I understand the process and can tell you that the ecac-w still has a grossly inflated SOS due to the league playing cupcakes. I will provide league noncon owp and oowp on Monday. In the meantime, Hobart and Utica will likely get pool c's because of said grossly overstated SOS, and despite not even making it to their conference finals. Do they deserve it? EF no, if you can't win your league, you shouldn't even be given a chance at winning the championship. Period.

r

Please don't bother to attempt such a thing, brother. It's pretty clear that the results of your "calculations" won't be worth the trouble of trying to figure them out...

Your clueless posts on here are all the evidence needed, as far as that goes.

 

[peddler]

Re: NCAA Rankings 2/19/13

Maybe the darkside isnt so bad

 

[llama]

Re: NCAA Rankings 2/19/13

...if you can't win your league, you shouldn't even be given a chance at winning the championship. Period.

r

Careful, you might just upset some Oswego fans with that kind of talk....

 

[NUProf]

Re: NCAA Rankings 2/19/13

Maybe the darkside isnt so bad

Many of us view that as the enlightened side.