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NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

M

Matt Rennell

Migrating to d3hockey.com
It's that time of year again. It's time to project the NCAA Rankings and Tournament field.

At this point, the regional rankings are pretty cut and dry as there seems to be a fairly logical order and not too many close calls. The west much tighter than the east though.

East
1- RIT
2- Plattsburgh
3- Norwich
4- Amherst
5- Elmira
6- Middlebury
7- Trinity
8- Manhattanville
9- Neumann

West
1- Wis. River Falls
2- Gustavus Adolphus
3- Wis. Superior
4- Wis. Eau Claire
5- Adrian
6- Lake Forest

Now lets take the Pool A teams.
ECAC East- Norwich
ECAC West- RIT
NESCAC- Middlebury
NCHA- UWRF
MIAC- GAC

Next we look at the Pool C field.

East- Plattsburgh and Amherst
West- UWS and UWEC

This turns out to be Plattsburgh and Amherst as they both beat out UWS in the criteria.

So, the field is set with a 5/2 split

East
1- RIT
2- Plattsburgh
3- Norwich
4- Amherst
5- Middlebury

West
1- UWRF
2- GAC

Which sets up the following

RIT- BYE
Amherst @ Norwich
GAC @ UWRF
Middlebury @ Plattsburgh

Let the fun begin.....
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

Seems about right, now what happens when River Falls loses in the O'brien cup? :)


About time for that one really annoying girl to show up and tell you how wrong you are as well!
 
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Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

gojackets said:
Seems about right, now what happens when River Falls loses in the O'brien cup? :)
Click to expand...

Assuming every other top team wins, then it would look something like this.

UWRF-BYE
NCHA Champ @ GAC
Middlebury @ RIT
Norwich @ Plattsburgh

UWRF would get the 1st Pool C spot and Plattsburgh would pick up the 2nd.
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

I don't think Lake Forest belongs as #6 they haven't played well enough for that in my eyes. I would take CUW or St. Norbert over Lake Forest personally and quite possibly St. Mary's, St. Thomas or Bethel
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

Matt Rennell said:
Assuming every other top team wins, then it would look something like this.

UWRF-BYE
NCHA Champ @ GAC
Middlebury @ RIT
Norwich @ Plattsburgh

UWRF would get the 1st Pool C spot and Plattsburgh would pick up the 2nd.
Click to expand...

If thats the case do they fly east or west for the semis and finals?
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

FALCONSANNOUNCER said:
If thats the case do they fly east or west for the semis and finals?
Click to expand...

In this scenario, given that it would require UWRF to lose, the FF would be held at RIT if they beat Middlebury IMO.

That being said, if the season ended today I have UWRF ranked ahead of RIT in the criteria meaing they would host. The reason being is UWRF has a significant advantage in SOS while RIT's edge in Win% is minimal. That said, the upcoming games against Finlandia and Marian are certainly going to close the gap in SOS. RIT will also face Elmira again and then PSU or Elmira in the ECAC's. UWRF isn't going to have the opportunity to increase their SOS with their remaining games. So, while as of today I have UWRF as being the top ranked team based on the numbers, I fully expect that to change even if both teams win out, because the lead UWRF has in SOS is going to shrink significantly.
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

FALCONSANNOUNCER said:
I don't think Lake Forest belongs as #6 they haven't played well enough for that in my eyes. I would take CUW or St. Norbert over Lake Forest personally and quite possibly St. Mary's, St. Thomas or Bethel
Click to expand...

It's all based on the criteria, nothing too subjective about it. They have every opportunity to drop out of that spot over the next couple weeks.
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

Here is an updated look at the projected rankings as well as the NCAA field.

East
1- RIT
2- Plattsburgh
3- Middlebury
4- Amherst
5- Norwich
6- Trinity
7- Elmira
8- Manhattanville
9- Bowdoin

West
1- Wis. River Falls
2- Gustavus Adolphus
3- Adrian
4- Wis. Superior
5- Wis. Eau Claire
6- Wis. Stevens Point

Pool A (Based on current #1 seeds in the standings)
Wis. River Falls
RIT
Amherst
Norwich
Gustavus Adolphus

Pool C Teams under consideration
East: Plattsburgh and Middlebury
West: Adrian and Wis. Superior

Code: 
         Adrian vs Plattsburgh
WIN      0.7500  0           0.8043  1
SOS      0.5105  0           0.5602  1

Plattsburgh grabs the first Pool C bid. Next let's take a look at the final spot between Adrian and Middlebury.

Code: 
         Adrian vs Middlebury
WIN      0.7500  0           0.8158  1
SOS      0.5105  0           0.5469  1

Middlebury takes the final spot for the NCAA field.

*For the record, if you give Middlebury the NESCAC title and compare Amherst against Adrian the results stay the same.

Which gives us....

East
1- RIT
2- Plattsburgh
3- Middlebury
4- Amherst
5- Norwich

West
1- Wis. River Falls
2- Gustavus Adolphus

NCAA Quarterfinals
RIT- BYE
Norwich @ Plattsburgh
Amherst @ Middlebury
GAC @ UWRF

Note: If UWRF beats GAC in this scenario I project them to be hosting the FF as they are the #1 overall seed. If they lose to GAC, hosting rights would go to RIT.
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

Matt Rennell said:
Note: If UWRF beats GAC in this scenario I project them to be hosting the FF as they are the #1 overall seed. If they lose to GAC, hosting rights would go to RIT.
Click to expand...

Would be awesome, but don't see it. Really the only way I see the FF going west again is if both RIT and UWRF were to lose in their conference tourney's. That would put 3 west teams in and River Falls would probably still be #1 over all.
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

Matt Rennell said:
Note: If UWRF beats GAC in this scenario I project them to be hosting the FF as they are the #1 overall seed.
Click to expand...

You think the NCAA is gonna fly three teams to Wisconsin, instead of flying one team and busing two to Rochester?


Powers &8^]
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

LtPowers said:
You think the NCAA is gonna fly three teams to Wisconsin, instead of flying one team and busing two to Rochester?


Powers &8^]
Click to expand...

see last year when they flew three teams to St Peter, MN. They had no choice last year, this year they have a choice, so I don't see it happening...eventhough it would be ludicrous to go undefeated and not host. I remember people being all up in arms about it when that scenario arose when Plattsburgh went undefeated.


That's quite the run-on sentence!
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

LtPowers said:
You think the NCAA is gonna fly three teams to Wisconsin, instead of flying one team and busing two to Rochester?


Powers &8^]
Click to expand...

If River Falls is undefeated still, you almost have to give it to them.

Plus, it would knock out the 1 in every four west FF right off the bat with a team that has earned the right to host it if they are still unbeaten.
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

PrezdeJohnson09 said:
If River Falls is undefeated still, you almost have to give it to them.

Plus, it would knock out the 1 in every four west FF right off the bat with a team that has earned the right to host it if they are still unbeaten.
Click to expand...

I said that a long time ago....if they bring it River Falls this year they won't be forced to bring it out west again until like 2018.
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

this year will have the most upsets in conference play ever. no one is a lock to advance.
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

I know nothing is a lock, but I think it very possible that GAC could lose their championship. Lets say for instance St. Thomas wins the MIAC.

Is there a chance for things to look like this?

NCAA Quarterfinals
UWRF- BYE
Norwich @ RIT
Amherst @ Middlebury
GAC @ St. Thomas

UWRF to host?

I'm just being curious. Is there a possibility for two MIAC teams and what would have to happen for GAC to lose and get a Pool C bid?
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

FALCONSANNOUNCER said:
I know nothing is a lock, but I think it very possible that GAC could lose their championship. Lets say for instance St. Thomas wins the MIAC.

Is there a chance for things to look like this?

NCAA Quarterfinals
UWRF- BYE
Norwich @ RIT
Amherst @ Middlebury
GAC @ St. Thomas

UWRF to host?

I'm just being curious. Is there a possibility for two MIAC teams and what would have to happen for GAC to lose and get a Pool C bid?
Click to expand...

Let me start by saying there is no way to know what the numbers will look like once the remaining games are played.

That said, based on how the numbers currently look, I do no see how it will be possible for GAC to get a Pool C bid.

Currently I have 6 teams ranked above GAC nationally in the PWR.

UWRF, RIT, Plattsburgh, Middlebury, Amherst, Norwich

Now, assuming UWRF, RIT, Amherst/Midd, Norwich get the AQ's, GAC would have to catch Plattsburgh or the Midd/Amherst loser. To do so would require GAC to lose again. I don't see any possible way for them to catch any of those teams because the gap is so wide right now. Throw in another loss and it will likely be impossible.
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

Norwich@Middlebury tonight at Kenyon. Winner takes a big step toward taking out some Pool "C" insurance?
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

obserbear said:
Norwich@Middlebury tonight at Kenyon. Winner takes a big step toward taking out some Pool "C" insurance?
Click to expand...

I don't think Norwich has a very good shot at a Pool C even if they win.

A lot of their "good wins" this season get taking out by the NCAA.

Don't get me wrong. A win tonight will certainly help given Plattsburgh lost to the Panthers last week. However, I think it would help Midd a lot more than it would help Wick.

NU just doesn't have a chance at Pool C considerations because they lose a 1/5th of their season in the NCAA rankings and the ECAC East is a very weak league, especially when you throw out Saint A's and Holy Cross.
 
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