Re: MN @ WI: Cheese And Paint Thinner And Dead Deer, Oh My!
Even if we simply win out the regular season, I don't think it's enough.
It isn't. Tech and BSU aren't going to help much in the pairwise, even if MN goes 4-0 against them.
I don't even know if placing 2nd in the F5 would be enough. I think we have to win the whole...f*in'...thing. (c) Lou Brown
I think it might be enough - but it depends on what happens with the other bubble teams and whether or not any non-top 15's pull off conference upsets and push the line to 14th or 13th. If MN makes it to the F5 title game, they'd have 6 or 7 games remaining against TUCs (depends on if first round goes to 3 games). Playoff opponent (round one) is almost certainly going to be CC, SCSU, or UW. Second round will probably be against DU/UND/UNO/UMD, and the championship is likely against one of them as well. So to get to the title game, MN presumably would have to go something along the lines of 5-1 in those games (9-1 overall counting the Tech and BSU games). The Gophers need to swing four comparisons to get to 13 total (and 15th in the pairwise).
Here are the current lost comparisons - I mention the closest measure by which MN can flip it and the TUC situation in parentheses if need be:
Princeton - by 3 ten thousandths of point (RPI)
CC - by 0.0045 in RPI (TUC's: 11-12-1 for them vs 7-11-4 for MN)
BU - by 0.0111 in RPI (TUC portion already won by MN)
WMU - 0.0091 in RPI and 4-5-4 v 9-11-4 in TUC (overall comparison lost 3-0 so these two would both need to flip, which they almost certainly would in this scenario)
UW - by 0.0129 in RPI (note: comparison will be tied with a MN win tonight, but UW will certainly cling to it via the RPI tie-breaker; however, MN would overtake them via the COP component with the aforementioned scenario of placing 2nd in the F5 and would also overtake them via RPI - and of course would overtake them with a first round playoff victory should the two meet there)
Dartmouth - by 0.0171 in RPI and 5-5-2 v 9-11-4 in TUC
RPI - by 0.0126 in RPI (ha!); could also flip it via TUC (7-5-2 v 9-11-4) *if* RPI's TUC record worsens.
UNH - 8-6-1 TUC v 9-11-4; again, if MN gets some help here and places 2nd, they can flip it.
The other comparisons I see are basically out of reach.
Under the given 2nd place scenario, I see Princeton, CC, WMU, and UW flipping to MN for sure (unless CC manages to also advance to the title game and beats MN there). UNH, RPI, and Dartmouth are all fair game as well, although I can't imagine *all* of them going to MN unless everything lined up right. Even if some combination of those did go to MN, at best, the Gophers would be in some sort of logjam at 12th. Another thing to watch out for is the TUC cliff. There are *eight* teams within 0.015 of it: Cornell, both Alaska schools, RIT, Robert Morris, SCSU, Mankato, and Ferris State. MN obviously wants Mankato to drop out.