Re: MLB 2013 - This Bud's for you!
Exactly. A guy like Halladay or Lee or Sabathia don't need a pitch count. You have to build your arm strength so you don't blow it out before you're 25.
This. Conventional wisdom going back many decades is that you try to keep the innings down until the pitcher is 23-25.
There's always somebody with some story about Johnny Bigdick throwing 379 innings back in 19-dickty-3 when he was 17. Maybe so, but by the time Johnny was 22, dollars to donuts says he was stocking Cream of Wheat on the shelves at the local Piggly Wiggly because his arm was shot to hell.
Warren Spahn
Bob Gibson
Roger Clemens
Steve Carlton
Tom Glavine
None of them hit 200 innings in any professional season (majors or minors) until at least age 23, although Carlton got extremely close at age 22. All are in Cooperstown except for Glavine, and he should arrive there in 2 years, tops.
Denny McLain
Dwight Gooden
Mark Fidrych
All topped 200 innings before age 23. All dropped off dramatically before age 26. Now, there were some other issues, but Fidrych showed up in camp in 1977 after a rookie year with a dead arm. McLain said in his book that his arm started to ache in 1970, at age 26. He was out of baseball right before his 29th birthday, essentially useless on the mound. After Gooden returned from his rehab and as he approached his 30's, his stuff simply wasn't there. I've got to believe that early wear and tear on that arm took its toll as well as the cocaine.
The bottom line is that most organizations tend to keep the innings totals down on the arms until they reach maturity age, usually 23-25 years old. At that point, you can usually turn them loose. I've heard a few pitching coaches say that the first full professional season, you try to stay under 140 innings. The next year you don't exceed 160, or 10-20 percent above the previous year. And so on and so forth...