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Minnesota Twins 2014: The Quest for .500

Re: Minnesota Twins 2014: The Quest for .500

Man, Mauer sucks. Only went 2-6 tonight (so far). Oh, he hit a HR. Ok, so he's not COMPLETELY worthless.
 
Re: Minnesota Twins 2014: The Quest for .500

Ahhhhhhh I think I'd take the HRs.
Not with that disparity in average. You can do the math, but I think getting on base 1/3 of the time and having more probability of an RBI (or becoming a run) is greater benefit than scoring 40 (min) runs and only getting on base 1/4 of the time.
 
Re: Minnesota Twins 2014: The Quest for .500

At 260 I think I'd still take the home runs.

Call it 240 or less and I'd take the average.
 
Re: Minnesota Twins 2014: The Quest for .500

At 260 I think I'd still take the home runs.

Call it 240 or less and I'd take the average.

Run your stats over the, say, last 5 years, using those parameters. I'm actually interested in which is more beneficial. Obviously I'm in favor of greater OBP, because of the probabilities, but I could be wrong.

Slight edit: two years ago, I'd take the HRs from Mauer. Twins SUCKED. For someone like the NYY, who are usually very good to great, I'd take the OBP. This year, however, the Twins are an average team (which is what I'm looking for: an average team).
 
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Re: Minnesota Twins 2014: The Quest for .500

I'd take my chances with the HRs at .260. The worst wOBA 40-HR season in history still prodded a .346.
 
Re: Minnesota Twins 2014: The Quest for .500

The Twins don't get 40 HR hitters. I think Mauer would max out around 30. Mauer has 110 career HR in almost 5000 ab. So he's hitting them less than 2% of the time.

So the hit difference depends on total appearances.

600 ab, .240, 144 h
600 ab, .260, 156 h
600 ab, .300, 180 h

500 ab, .240, 120 h
500 ab, .260, 130 h
500 ab, .300, 150 h

400 ab, .240, 96 h
400 ab, .260, 104 h
400 ab, .300, 120 h

I'd also say at 30+ HR the player is likely to be at 90+ RBI.

In the end, even at 600 ab, it's only 36 more hits over the entire season. So you'd probably take more HR's.
 
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Re: Minnesota Twins 2014: The Quest for .500

Time for Joe to start a new streak.

Take the HRs, and it is a no brainer. .260 is not a bad average if you're jacking 40 home runs.
 
Re: Minnesota Twins 2014: The Quest for .500

Man, Mauer sucks. Only went 2-6 tonight (so far). Oh, he hit a HR. Ok, so he's not COMPLETELY worthless.

Since 2011 and on, is he worth $23M/year? Look at his annual stats line. He misses at least 10% of the season each year except one, and his BA was only .277 last year, and .84 through 39 games this year. He's a decent player, just not worth $23M/year since 2011.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml
 
Re: Minnesota Twins 2014: The Quest for .500

Since 2011 and on, is he worth $23M/year? Look at his annual stats line. He misses at least 10% of the season each year except one, and his BA was only .277 last year, and .84 through 39 games this year. He's a decent player, just not worth $23M/year since 2011.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml

NO! Ranked 53 in OPS in the AL is totally worth 23 million!
 
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