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Minnesota Twins 2010 Season Part III, {sigh}

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Re: Minnesota Twins 2010 Season Part III, {sigh}

With two on and one out, he should be swinging away. He's a career .300+ hitter for *'s sakes. Leave the bunt gimmickry to guys like Punto who are far less likely to get on base without making an out.

Mauer's had 17 GIDP's in 353 plate appearances this year - that's a rate of roughly 1 per 21 at-bats. I think I'll go with the ~5% risk of a double play by swinging away vs. the >80% chance of handing Cleveland an out by bunting.

Note: he has 32 extra base hits this season, which is nearly double the amount of double plays. The risk-reward clearly favors swinging away.

Bring all the stats into it you want, the point remains the same.
If the bunt worked, you aren't complaining, if he'd hit into a double play, he's still criticized.
 
Re: Minnesota Twins 2010 Season Part III, {sigh}

Bring all the stats into it you want, the point remains the same.
If the bunt worked, you aren't complaining, if he'd hit into a double play, he's still criticized.
If the bunt had worked, Kubel's grounder ends the inning via a double play (assuming the grounder to 1st still happens). Whether or not the bunt had worked, I'd question his decision to do it there. Bad year or not, Mauer is still an elite hitter, and bunting is the last *'ing thing he should be doing in that situation.
 
Re: Minnesota Twins 2010 Season Part III, {sigh}

Are people really trying to defend the #3 hitter laying down a sacrifice last night? :eek:

You don't do it, ever. Period. If you think it was a good play, you are entitled to that opinion but you are wrong.
 
Re: Minnesota Twins 2010 Season Part III, {sigh}

Are people really trying to defend the #3 hitter laying down a sacrifice last night? :eek:

You don't do it, ever. Period. If you think it was a good play, you are entitled to that opinion but you are wrong.
If it was Punto, the sacrifice wouldn't have been a bad play. Mauer is one the "best" players in the league because he is supposed to drive guys in, in that situation.
 
Re: Minnesota Twins 2010 Season Part III, {sigh}

If it was Punto, the sacrifice wouldn't have been a bad play. Mauer is one the "best" players in the league because he is supposed to drive guys in, in that situation.
FTLT is just being an idiot trying to create a fake argument ("you guys wouldn't criticize him if he'd been successful with that bunt!"). Um, yes - we would criticize him if the bunt had worked; good hitters shouldn't be wasting the potential for big innings by bunting. The odds of him executing the bunt perfectly and legging out an infield hit are far lower than the odds of him swinging away and driving in a run or two (even in this subpar year, he's getting a hit 30% of the time; I don't see him successfully getting on base by bunting more than 20% of the time under the best of circumstances).
 
Re: Minnesota Twins 2010 Season Part III, {sigh}

FTLT is just being an idiot trying to create a fake argument ("you guys wouldn't criticize him if he'd been successful with that bunt!"). Um, yes - we would criticize him if the bunt had worked; good hitters shouldn't be wasting the potential for big innings by bunting. The odds of him executing the bunt perfectly and legging out an infield hit are far lower than the odds of him swinging away and driving in a run or two (even in this subpar year, he's getting a hit 30% of the time; I don't see him successfully getting on base by bunting more than 20% of the time under the best of circumstances).

He is "Smallball Joe" for a reason. ;)
I'm just saying I see a lot of people complain only when plays don't work, good ideas or not and I'm not arguing whether it was a good idea or not.
If you would have legitimately *****ed regardless, good for you, it's not always the case.
 
Re: Minnesota Twins 2010 Season Part III, {sigh}

I would've criticized it regardless - MVPs/batting champions shouldn't be bunting in that situation - ever. Joe Mauer, bad year or not, happens to be better than the vast majority of players at getting hits and reaching base without making outs. When he chooses to bunt, he's handing the opponent a free out the vast majority of the time. When he swings away, sure he's running a 5% risk of the dreaded inning-ending GIDP. However, twice as often as that (roughly), he gets an extra base hit that drives in 1-2 runs - and that's why he's in the *'ing lineup - to get hits and drive in runs. Let the Nick Puntos of the world attempt the random drag bunts. Hitting for power or not, Mauer is a guy I expect to drive the gaps - he's a natural at it.
 
Re: Minnesota Twins 2010 Season Part III, {sigh}

And if Mauer had hit into a double play, which he does often, he'd be criticized for that.
Yet if the bunt for a hit had worked, he'd be praised for a smart play, funny how it all works huh.
Even if it works, it is a terrible play. A #3 hitter has to be thinking "RBI!" when he comes up there. If he had Morneau hitting behind him, it is slightly less egregious, but Kubel isn't Justin. The club gave Mauer one of the best contracts in the game. They expect him to get the ball out of the infield when the situation calls for it, which he failed to do in the first but got bailed out when Cleveland flubbed their 3rd straight ball.

That the Twins only got 1 run in the 1st inning is probably where the game started to go bad. That happened because Kubel had the first of three brain-dead ABs by Jason in key situations. I like Kubel, but both he and Thome were taking hittable pitches so they could chase nasty ones in spots where we needed a ball put in play, not necessarily a HR.

Span's 2-out, 2-on bunt on Monday was stupid as well. With Morneau out, it is important that people execute and play smart. The Twins aren't doing that offensively right now. It is scary to think where they would be if they hadn't made the decision to sign Pavano, which didn't seem that important at the time.
 
Re: Minnesota Twins 2010 Season Part III, {sigh}

Given that Thome signed for a paltry $1.5 million, I'll forgive a few bad at-bats in his case. For the modest amount of playing time he's gotten, he's definitely exceeded expectations.

Span's definitely had issues lately - getting picked off multiple times is just embarrassing.
 
Re: Minnesota Twins 2010 Season Part III, {sigh}

Given that Thome signed for a paltry $1.5 million, I'll forgive a few bad at-bats in his case. For the modest amount of playing time he's gotten, he's definitely exceeded expectations.
Sure. It just seemed like in the first inning yesterday, he was sitting on a pitch trying to hit a 3-run jack. I'd rather he'd have just tried to get a baseknock. But I hear you; he doesn't make a list of Twins problems.

Span's definitely had issues lately - getting picked off multiple times is just embarrassing.
It seems to me like he has regressed over the last 12 months or so. He doesn't run as hard to first as consistently as he used to. There have been a number of times where balls have dropped or players have collided or nearly done so, and he's been in the middle of it. In a noisy stadium, the CF has to call loud and long and not worry how he's going to look on SportsCenter. And I don't remember him having these long stretches where he rolls over everything and hits weak grounders to first.

The Twins are one of those tweener teams: still in the race so they can't make trades to gain prospects; too many problem areas to attempt to fix them all midseason. The minors don't seem to offer much help over the next couple of years, so I wonder if we have the hope of getting any better.
 
Re: Minnesota Twins 2010 Season Part III, {sigh}

If Thome bats .260 that is all you need. He has 11 homers I believe and that isn't too bad. Like it or not he wasnt brought in to get base knocks he was brought in to go deep.

Mauer has been trying that drag bunt BS for the last few weeks, if he wants to bunt so bad put him in the number 2 whole or the number 9 whole.

Kubel is not, and never will be a #4.
 
Re: Minnesota Twins 2010 Season Part III, {sigh}

...too many problem areas to attempt to fix them all midseason. The minors don't seem to offer much help over the next couple of years, so I wonder if we have the hope of getting any better.
If they just fixed their pitching problems, I'd be happy. I think that'd go a long ways toward ending this mediocre stretch they're on.

Thome's OPS+ is right on his career average even though he's old. I'd say if anything, he's overachieving.
 
Re: Minnesota Twins 2010 Season Part III, {sigh}

Mauer's had 17 GIDP's in 353 plate appearances this year - that's a rate of roughly 1 per 21 at-bats. I think I'll go with the ~5% risk of a double play by swinging away vs. the >80% chance of handing Cleveland an out by bunting.

Note: he has 32 extra base hits this season, which is nearly double the amount of double plays. The risk-reward clearly favors swinging away.

This analysis is flawed. He had 72 at bats with a runner on first and less the 2 outs (double play situation) this season. He's grounded into 17 DP's and only has 14 hits total in those situations.

The bunt was terrible. Period. He makes the 3rd basemen or left handed Pitcher field it (on left side of diamond), its a tough play. His bunt went nowhere and was an easy play for the catcher. He was not bunting for a sacrifice. I don't think anybody was congratulating him in the dugout. That was worst case scenario (other than pop out).

Did Gardy say he drag bunted? Now that would have been stupid. I consider a drag bunt to be pushed to the first base side.

IMO, the bunt was more terrible than the decision. He was trying to catch the Indians sleeping and didn't execute.
 
Re: Minnesota Twins 2010 Season Part III, {sigh}

If they just fixed their pitching problems, I'd be happy. I think that'd go a long ways toward ending this mediocre stretch they're on.
Pitching is always the best solution. Right now with 3 starters in a mess, I don't know how fixable it is in the short term. Then there's the pen -- how many of those guys do we really have confidence in? Fixing the pitching is a great idea. Hopefully somebody in the organization has some brilliant ideas of how to accomplish that goal.

IMO, the bunt was more terrible than the decision. He was trying to catch the Indians sleeping and didn't execute.
You are right that the execution was bad; IMO, the decision was even worse. He's putting it on Kubel to drive the runners in even if he beats it out (and the Indians weren't flat out giving Mauer the 3B line like teams sometimes do with Morneau.) As risk/reward goes, it was an awful decision.
 
Re: Minnesota Twins 2010 Season Part III, {sigh}

Pitching is always the best solution. Right now with 3 starters in a mess, I don't know how fixable it is in the short term. Then there's the pen -- how many of those guys do we really have confidence in? Fixing the pitching is a great idea. Hopefully somebody in the organization has some brilliant ideas of how to accomplish that goal.
Three things need to happen to fix the pitching.

1 guy needs to pull his head out of his *** and actually start pitching decent
1 guy needs to be replaced via trade for anyone from Lilly to Oswalt
1 guy needs to be replaced by Brian Duensing, and Duensing needs to pitch well as his replacement
 
Re: Minnesota Twins 2010 Season Part III, {sigh}

Was listening to the postgame last night, and they were lamenting the fact that the bench isn't deep and they needed a righty. You know whose fault this is? Bill Smith. I love Jim Thome, but anyone with a brain thought "huh?" when we signed him. I mean, we already have a powerhitting left-handed DH.
 
Re: Minnesota Twins 2010 Season Part III, {sigh}

This analysis is flawed. He had 72 at bats with a runner on first and less the 2 outs (double play situation) this season. He's grounded into 17 DP's and only has 14 hits total in those situations.
Good god, that is bad. How many at-bats does he have with runners on 1st and 2nd with less than two outs (since that's the exact situation he was in last night)?
IMO, the bunt was more terrible than the decision. He was trying to catch the Indians sleeping and didn't execute.
Except if he *had* executed it, the responsibility for driving in runs would fall to Kubel who is a worse hitter than Mauer. Plus this team's inability to get hits with the bases loaded is well known.
 
Re: Minnesota Twins 2010 Season Part III, {sigh}

According to KFAN, Duensing starting for Blackburn tonight. Its about time.
Also hinting that Mauer is going to be dropped in the order, but I think that is just unconfirmed and wishful thinking on their part.
 
Re: Minnesota Twins 2010 Season Part III, {sigh}

Who said it...if it was PA it is probably BS unless LaVelle E Neal III was on the show with him. PA knows dick about baseball.
 
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