Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II
Steve, here's the long and short of it.
Don's teams have performed in the top 15 teams in the country. But a couple of things. First, his teams should. The state of Minnesota is the strongest recruiting grounds in the country and based on a per person basis, arguably the world. In fact, there are 7 teams of the top 14 or so in the hunt for NCAAs with their top strategy (or darn close to it) is to recruit our state. Not only are the Gophers in the state itself, but we are the namesake for the state...and in fact, the only D1 school in the state, a member of the premier Big Ten, an excellent academic school and located in the Twin Cities which has an excellent quality of life. So we recruit extremely well...but we should arguably recruit in the top 3 whenever we have a crop coming in and as a result, us doing pretty well is not a surprise. Frankly, its major red flag that we can't recruit top players anywhere else in the country...ever. You could claim Robson, but that was a fluke when he just happened to miss a plane and visited when he was forced to spend the night here.
Again with the backdrop of so many natural recruiting advantages, we appear to underperform when it comes time to hit the ice. In recent history, we've been challenged to win much outside of the conference. I don't have the ineptitude record against some of the local teams...but its been quite bad. And outside of a couple of games (North Dakota a couple of years ago), we've had a difficult time beating teams in the play offs ranked at our level or even lower than us. Not sure why that is, but the Don's and Mike's mannerisms always appears somewhere between disconnected, aloof, lethargic and angry. That may not be reality...but the results on the ice signal that often there appears to be a chemistry problem. This year we had a fantastically talented team - one the best in a long time. It ain't over yet, but they waay underperformed. It must be chemistry. Lastly, the whole competitive slate has gone boring. Our competition of interesting and state historic rivals has been replaced by milk toast competitors further east somewhere - the addition of ND furthers this. And many pundits believe that that in large part is causing a crisis in attendance and weakening fanbase. Now Don can't be blamed for most of this...but it does signal that the program needs a kick in the butt.
But as has been pointed out, the recruiting advantage MN still has in MN is that they get a lot of the players that they want. What has changed is that 20 years ago, that meant picking from the top 18 year olds in the state. Kids who were ready, or close to ready to step into college. You had a good idea of what they might bring to the team when you got them to commit. Now, the playing field has changed. MN is still getting a lot of the kids they want, but they have to get them at 15, when there is no way to know their trajectory. There will be a lot more kids who don't pan out with this strategy, so being able to stay in the top 10 annually is much more difficult. One can look at some players now playing for other teams and call them 'misses' for MN, but you really have to look at what they were like when they were recruited compared to the MN kids. Unless one has a crystal ball to see into the future, It is not fair to cherry pick individual players for comparison. (Now if there is a good coach who does have such a crystal ball, then I would be all for canning Lucia to hire that person.)
And I don't know that MN has an inability to recruit players from elsewhere. I don't know about your "red flag". Given the talent in MN you describe, it seems it is pretty rare they go for those players. (And it is not like Robson is the only non-MN player on the team.) And when it is known around the country that most players going to MN are from MN, don't you think that most kids start looking at other schools early on. Not necessarily a sign of a bad rap for MN.
And you state the performance against certain schools as evidence of under-performing, and yes, it isn't fun doing so poorly against other MN teams. But the overall stats that SteveO listed show MN right up there with all the other teams that people like to list as examples of how everyone else is doing well compared to MN. I would agree that this year the team on paper looks better than the one that has been on the ice for 75% of the year. But if you look at overall performance over a longer period, I don't see how people think that removal of Lucia is an automatic thing or that on-ice performance will necessarily improve if he is replaced.
Replacing Lucia to get excitement around the program could have an effect, if the right people are hired. But if parity and the Gophs being a top 15 team annually instead of a top 8 team is the new reality due to recruiting changes, how long will that effect really last? I think that the attitude of the coaches is a very minor factor, if at all, in when people choose to attend. (I can't tell you how many hockey games I've attended in my life, and I never once considered who the coach was in deciding to attend.) Attendance is declining at most programs as it is for MLB and NFL. I think part of this is a societal shift, probably tied to ease and cost of watching from home, and more alternatives for entertainment. (B1G probably plays a part too.) Winning teams will always have better attendance than losing ones, but I just don't believe any program will be a national contender every year the way recruiting is set up. And if you can't expect a team to improve with a coaching switch, why would a school replace a coach that is among the best that has ever coached there? I don't see making the move just because 'it has grown stale'. If the message has really grown stale and the play is suffering because of it, wouldn't you expect SteveO's stats to bear that out?
And once again, I am not a Lucia worshiper. I have always cringed when I have heard rumors about what some players think of him (but in many cases that has come from parents of players from other teams or people who don't like him, so hard to separate out facts). I am guessing the Herb Brooks 'hate me' approach doesn't work now, the way it did in the 70's and 80's. But on the other hand, I don't feel like there is clear evidence this has hurt recruiting, if it is true. The administration should have a better handle on this than us. And this year has been a major disappointment for me, given my preseason expectations. But I also recognize that while this team has a lot of drafted D, who NHL scouts thought had a lot of potential, the often mediocre play of those D players play a part. In many cases it is just a lack of ability, not necessarily poor coaching that has led to problems. Those players just haven't progressed as much as expected. (And people will jump to blame coaches, but plenty of D have done very well in the past progressing with these coaches.)
So to me, while I am frustrated with this year, and the fact the Gophs aren't a national contender annually, I don't know that a coaching replacement will ever bring back the glory years. (Maybe if Lucia successfully lobbies for a minimum commitment age of say, 17, we can return to those glory years.) And I don't think the evidence is there to suggest it is an automatic decision as some suggest.
