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Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

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Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

directmagna said:
I remember Lucia's first year - it was a bit rough - I don't think they had bottomed out as bad as this team, thought --

We know Motzko is a very good team - we know he will be able to rebuild the program -- it looks like this year's team has given up -

I hope Motzko sends a strong message that he does not care that the boys have not bought in and do not like him or his assistants. I think Motzko would be justified in benching players who have bad attitudes, playing the guys who have commitment, cutting players who don't want to be here - taking their scholarships away - recruiting to fill those open scholarship spots --

Basically doing a tear down and a rebuild of SCSU 2.0 --
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There are some signs if hope, specifically with MN's special teams this year. MN is 3rd in overall special teams - 11th in penalty kill & 5th in power play - so I see some light at the end of the tunnel. Hopefully the light isn't a train. :)
 
Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

And remember how bad our PP was last year with basically the same squad PLUS CM?
 
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Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

trixR4kids said:
This team continuously gives up way too many shots and might even be a bottom 5 in that category at even strength (haven’t checked recently but they were bottom ten and couldn’t have gotten better these last few series). All goalies have ups and downs including Robson but I wouldn’t say he’s the main reason for the goals against totals. If he was letting in that many goals on 20 or less shots consistently I’d tend to agree but that’s clearly not what’s happening.
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And how did you determine that free of sampling error (in bold)?

There has never been a starting Gopher netminder in the last 20 years with the type of GA extremes as Mat Robson. Total SOG is not the most accurate way to evaluate a goalie's performance. Statistically speaking, not only are SOG more accurately placed when the game is close, but goalies are more likely to be severely tested. I've already documented his GA and SV% on approximately 20 SOGs when the game is close in a previous post and they are very pedestrian.

All three GA last night were on Robson. The 5 hole by Pastujov was not surprising and has been one of Robson's weaknesses with the paddle this season. The others were rebound and lateral movement errors.

Among goalies with 600 or more SOG, Robson currently ranks 17th with a 2.85 GAA.

18. Brian Wilson (8-10-3) - 2.86 Niagra
19. Eric Gordon (5-12-4) - 2.97 Holy Cross
20. Mark Sinclair (4-15-1) - 2.98 Alabama-Huntsville
 
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SteveO said:
And how did you determine that free of sampling error (in bold)?
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I’m talking about last night’s game.

As for other games I track scoring chances and pre pass movement as well, in a 9-4 game vs the badgers we had the same number of chances for instance and most of that was at even strength. Shots on goal isn’t perfect but it correlates with scoring chances generally.

Statistically speaking, not only are SOG more accurately placed when the game is close, but goalies are more likely to be severely tested.
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Do you have any proof of this? Because “close” stats are far less reliable than using a larger sample.

I've already documented his GA and SV% on approximately 20 SOGs when the game is close in a previous post and they are very pedestrian.
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20 shots? Ok...

All three GA last night were on Robson.
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Yeah gonna disagree heavily here, unless you blame goalies for every goal against and give no credit for the ridiculous rebound sequences he kept it of the net last night.
 
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Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

No matter how people try to spin it all year, the defense is awful.

Robson seemed off last night. Maybe he's getting sick of the support, maybe he's talking to some pro teams, who knows. The guy can only do so much.
 
Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

trixR4kids said:
I’m talking about last night’s game.

As for other games I track scoring chances and pre pass movement as well, in a 9-4 game vs the badgers we had the same number of chances for instance and most of that was at even strength. Shots on goal isn’t perfect but it correlates with scoring chances generally.
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The question still applies in either case. :)
 
Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

trixR4kids said:
No it doesn’t because we’re talking about a few individual plays where we all saw what happened. You don’t need to do rigorous statistical analysis in that instance to describe who’s at fault on a single goal.
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You don't understand sampling error, but I'm not going to go into great detail on that here on USCHO. ;)
 
Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

Gopher SOG this season:

Having 10-19 Shots On Goal 0-1-2
Having 20-29 Shots On Goal 9-3-2
Having 30-39 Shots On Goal 2-6-0
Having 40 or More Shots On Goal 1-2-0
Allowing 10-19 Shots On Goal 1-0-0
Allowing 20-29 Shots On Goal 2-3-1
Allowing 30-39 Shots On Goal 4-8-2
Allowing 40 or More Shots On Goal 4-1-1
Outshooting Opponent 3-7-0
Opponent Outshoots Minnesota 8-5-4
Shots Are Even 0-1-0
 
Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

Technically you can outshoot a team by 1 and have more shots, the overall distribution of shots for/against at even strength has us in the bottom 10 of the NCAA. That’s problematic, none of those teams are good either (Ferris, STL, UAA).

SteveO said:
;)
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He’s not consistently facing 20 or leas shots a game... ;)
 
Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

Our team can sometimes make up for the even strength issues with special teams/Robson but unsurprisingly it’s not leading to consistent results.
 
Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

so we are probably all in agreement that this season is a somewhat bootless exercise in terms of a playoff run -- curious to get the group's thoughts on how long it will be before the Gophers have a meaningful playoff run?

For example, should we be optimistic that we might see Sammy Walker on the final four stage before he leaves the program? Does he have enough supporting cast?

Will Motzko shift the style of recruits and go away from the Mr. Hockey types to the cardharts and lunch bucket crew? Or is youth hockey at the elite level now all pretty/skill/fast type players?

I have to believe coach Motz is going to be successful in building the type of team he wants once the debris of upperclassman players is cleared out ---

While we wait for the Gophers to return to the national team, I really hope SCSU and MSU can have a good long run in the tourney and that they don't have to face each other early in regional play or fizz out in the first round like they have so many times recently...
 
Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

I think the big question mark will be goaltending, Granato hasn't been able to figure that out for 3 years now and Badger fans are are growing impatient. It's the one piece that can sink an above average team and can be difficult to predict to say the least.
 
Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

good point - the gophs have never really had good goaltending -- since when -- 2001/2002/2003?
even with Robb Stauber, we just don't seem to be a good goaltending school - I remember the great goal tenders Lucia had at CC - I always hoped he would be able to duplicate that with the gophers -- but we just don't seem to be able to recruit really good tendies...
 
Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

Adam Wilcox was a good goalie. Not surprisingly his three years here were also the last three true Gopher teams as far as skill and style of play.
 
Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!

Slap Shot said:
That data is incomplete. They've gone 0/2 since the above tally. https://www.collegehockeynews.com/stats/

Regardless their offense still sucks but keep at it.
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FYI I went back and checked and CollegeHockeyStats is correct while CHN is wrong.

CHN has two extra PP opportunities that didn't exist (11/30 against OSU and 12/8 against UM) and one PK opportunity that didn't exist (11/30 against OSU).
 
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