Re: Minnesota Golden Gopher Season 2018-19: The Motzko Era Begins!
There's a lot more to winning in D1 than just recruiting the right players. Look at all the small schools in the top 20 this season with no NHL draft picks, but good coaching.
Motzko never won any NCAA hardware as a head coach and I'm not holding my breath thinking he'll do it here. Partly because he's had a history of not having his teams ready for big games. But it's ok for Gopher fans to give Motzko a pass and slam Don Lucia every other sentence blaming him for this season's demise? BS.
People look for quick, easy answers. I don't know what the situation was with Lucia the last few years, if he lost his fire. Perhaps. But I agree that the dominant dialogue last year was largely 'Lucia can't get his talented players to play to their ability". This year, it is common to hear that the problem isn't the current coach, but the players that Lucia recruited. Let's keep in mind that Lucia took CC from last to first in one year largely with the players that were already at CC. And we all know what happened shortly after coming to MN. He clearly was a hell of a coach at one time (and I am not sure he definitely ceased being one.)
But doesn't anyone think it is more than a coincidence that coaching ability is being questioned in a similar vein at Wisconsin, UND, BC, BU, UMi? It is unlikely any of these teams, that 15 years ago would all be expected to make it to the NCAA's almost annually, will make the tourney this year unless they pull off a conference tourney win. Do people really think coaching is completely the issue at everyone of these schools (or was the sole issue with MN last year)?
And is it a coincidence that fans questioning their coaches (that had performed well in the past) has seemingly increased during the same period of time in which we've seen a transition from number one seeds in the NCAA having an almost automatic win in the first round, to I believe well over 25% losing, as well as the increase in number of teams winning NCAA games that come in as lower seeds? Could the lack of dominant performances by these blue-blood programs be less a factor of them all having coaching failures in the same period of time, or other factors, and that blaming coaching is just the easy answer? (And it does seem like once the tide of opinion has turned on a coach, just like the highly recruited D that makes some mistakes and can do no right the rest of the year, there is no looking objectively at how they perform.)
So what has changed in this time period that would affect all the blue-blood programs? I would argue that the biggest factor is early age recruiting for these schools combined with all the non-blue bloods likely increasing in mean age. Too many misses with young stars and you have 18 year old freshman who aren't as good as projected playing against 20 year old freshman that accelerated in development in the last couple years. The older kid will typically have learned to be a more consistent player with two more years experience. And when we see how many misses there are with full-time NHL scouts looking at older kids, I don't know how you can lay too much blame on a college coach, with limited views, not being able to tell what a 14 years old's work ethic or ability will be 4 years later. But at the same time, when you are the coach of a program that has a shot at a 15 yr old that cold be the next Mittlestedt or Eichel, are you going to pass and just recruit 19-20 yr olds?
I feel like coaches have been given a disproportionate amount of blame based on the expectation of fans that these programs should be as dominant in this changed recruiting era as they were when kids weren't committing until they were 18. I have a feeling the days of MN dominating most programs is over. That is not to say that some programs, like MN shouldn't still have an edge, but I am guessing the amount of edge won't be the same as in the past. Of course, who knows what the future brings. The rule change for a higher limit on recruiting age, while still allowing pretty young commitments compared to the 90's, should help. And maybe the scene will continue to change where commitments mean less and we continue to see more kids who had committed to a school jump ship and go to a traditional power as their stock rises, and there will be less of a stigma on teams like Mn backing out of commitments. This could also swing the power back to the big programs more. But those things aren't happening over night, so I think we are just in an era of more parity. We might have to accept that our coaches aren't the sole problem. Our kids are young and will be inconsistent at times. And it is going to be more a matter of having some luck with getting enough kids to not plateau and getting the right chemistry to make a run from time to time, but that there will also be more misses than in the past. I know this is not what longtime Gopher fans want to hear, or accept. But I haven't really been convinced that in this trend towards national parity, that I should expect the Gophers to be perennial contenders.
And finally (if you made it this far), I really think there has been a chemistry issue with the players the last couple years. Lucia and Guentzel expressed frustration last year at not getting through to players, no matter what they tried. Motzko talked about something being wrong with their DNA this year. I don't buy that all kids Lucia (or the Gophers) have recruited are soft because they were prima donas. We've all seen teams that have just clicked and showed great effort, and succeeded better than what was expected, and we are familiar with teams that seemed stacked, that never reached their potential. The same coaches often had had both types of teams. There is something to team chemistry. Good coaches generally get better play out of players, but if there are inherent issues with leaders or locker room issues, sometimes the best coach can't overcome those. Both last year's and this year's team have had moments where everyone was clicking and they clearly have talent to compete with anyone, but it has been more common that only certain players or lines stick out for their effort on a given night. I don't know what the answer is, or if there is one (other than hoping things improve as players turn over), but as easy as it is to blame coaching, I don't think that completely explains the last couple seasons.
And believe me, I hope I am wrong as anyone, that the Gophs might not return to being a perennial power. But I really don't think that coaching is the issue at all the traditional powers.